Chinese semiconductor industry

My thinking on the issue of retaliation has changed almost 180°. I used to be all gung-ho about retaliation and taking revenge and all the rest of that crap. Now I don't feel that retaliation has any use beyond deterrence - just retaliate and threaten further action enough to deter America. Retaliation has no use beyond that; this isn't some Shakespearean tragedy like Tommy Cotton wants Chinese students to study. What China needs to do is achieve core technology independence as soon as possible and all efforts should be focused on that goal. The US is a burning building and China needs to reach the exit as expeditiously as it can. Sure, grab the fire extinguisher and douse any flames that are in your way, but don't stick around beyond that.

free_6ix9ine said:

First of all it is a war, maybe not a shooting war, but it is a war. Its not to relieve our anger, we have to show strength and hit them when they are weak. No retaliation invites more attacks.

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So you've managed to "kill" a bunch of Americans who were poor, old, unskilled, addicted to substances, and eating free meals off of the government every day. And the rest of the world sees China as a country that will happily threaten patient lives with its politics. It's just as ugly, desperate, and unreliable a leader as Trump is. The world sees that this is the risk you take when you fully trust and invest in Chinese manufacturing. What have you accomplished and what's your next move? Does that make America less likely to try to sabotage China again because less than a percent of its poorest, most useless people died?

Ask yourself what does your enemy fear the most and don't waste time on other things. Does America fear that it might lose a million or 2 million people who are mostly old and poor in a population of over 330 million, or does America fear Chinese technological growth and innovation? Don't let your anger turn this into a difficult question.

I'm not saying hold back and be less vicious; I'm saying don't do stupid things that don't actually serve your interests.

Hadoren said:

Why should China give a fuck about America's poorest and most needy? There are a billion poor and needy Indians. People in the biggest slum in the world, Dharavi, are literally eating one meal a day because of coronavirus.

Why the fuck should racist Americans trying to destroy China get medical supplies above Brazilian or Indian slum-dwellers?

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watch out your language, swearing is not acceptable in this forum

Look guys, Chinese are smarter than this simple retaliation.

There are better long term options to win.

1. No more buying US debt.
2. Strengthen RMB overtime while strengthening/innovating manufacturing sector to maintain exports.
3. Turn existing dollars into investments into tech and infrastructure development.
4. Strengthen alliances with the rest of the world.

We Chinese are above a Trump like retaliation.

ZeEa5KPul said:

My thinking on the issue of retaliation has changed almost 180°. I used to be all gung-ho about retaliation and taking revenge and all the rest of that crap. Now I don't feel that retaliation has any use beyond deterrence - just retaliate and threaten further action enough to deter America. Retaliation has no use beyond that; this isn't some Shakespearean tragedy like Tommy Cotton wants Chinese students to study. What China needs to do is achieve core technology independence as soon as possible and all efforts should be focused on that goal. The US is a burning building and China needs to reach the exit as expeditiously as it can. Sure, grab the fire extinguisher and douse any flames that are in your way, but don't stick around beyond that.

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We need to decouple with America, they have made it clear they are China's enemy. The 5 year plan should be to shore up our semi industry, boost domestic consumption, find new export markets, invest in leapfrog technologies (quantum computing, etc.), increase our nuclear deterrance capabilities.

Maybe after this is all and done, America will end up like a failed state with a hyperpartisan political system. Who knows, if Trump loses the electoral college, he might encourage some of the "nice" people from the white nationalist movements and covid reopening militias to start a armed insurrection to overthrow the government.

manqiangrexue said:

So you've managed to "kill" a bunch of Americans who were poor, old, unskilled, addicted to substances, and eating free meals off of the government every day. And the rest of the world sees China as a country that will happily threaten patient lives with its politics. It's just as ugly, desperate, and unreliable a leader as Trump is. The world sees that this is the risk you take when you fully trust and invest in Chinese manufacturing. What have you accomplished and what's your next move? Does that make America less likely to try to sabotage China again because less than a percent of its poorest, most useless people died?

Ask yourself what does your enemy fear the most and don't waste time on other things. Does America fear that it might lose a million or 2 million people who are mostly old and poor in a population of over 330 million, or does America fear Chinese technological growth and innovation? Don't like your anger turn this into a difficult question.

I'm not saying hold back and be less vicious; I'm saying don't do stupid things that don't actually serve your interests.

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Agreed not helpful to harm a segment of the US population, the rest of the country will cry crocodile tears and spin it as the New Pearl Harbour. Despite the rhetoric right now, the US is still deeply divided on COVID, and as many fingers are pointed towards Trump right now as they are to China, there is no need to fully unite both the left and right under one cause through denial of PPE. Besides, the US is bleeding more than China each day right now (until they get the pandemic under control).

The US announcement said materials in production will get a 120 day grace period to not interrupt business continuity. 120 days is more than enough time for China to craft a proportionate and appropriate response, and I'm sure various scenarios were already being formulated by Huawei in conjunction with the central government. Timing of 120 days takes us to mid-September, which allows any potential response to be taken in the context of the november elections. Also, by mid-august, we will have a very good understanding of any potential 2nd waves within the US and the impact of the pre-mature lifting of lockdown.

Again, I don't think china needs 120 days to respond, but there is enough time for china to evaluate any and all options on the table.

Calm down people

manqiangrexue said:

Guys, I'm not a kind person when it comes to politics. If I saw a tactic that could really crush the US into the ground and leave China the victor, I would draw no moral line on it at all. Whatever it is, do it. But I don't advocate doing things that don't truly harm your opponent while making yourself look desperate and ugly. That's a waste of time and energy, which should be allocated very intelligently in this ultimate competition.

So they can survive and keep eating America's welfare hollow. Keeping leeches on your opponent alive isn't lending him a helping hand. Why do you keep using fuck? Control yourself; you sound like you're in desperate rage like Trump. That's not how winners act.

This is not a war and the intention is not to kill people. This is a competition and the intention is to rise above your rival. In that sense, whatever leads to growth will win the day. Whatever is done just to relieve your own anger is a waste of energy/time/resources.

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A medical supply export ban does truly harm the United States. It's a very effective use of time and energy.

Far from being a waste of energy/time/resources - a medical supply export ban is the most effective tool China has.

ZeEa5KPul said:

My thinking on the issue of retaliation has changed almost 180°. I used to be all gung-ho about retaliation and taking revenge and all the rest of that crap. Now I don't feel that retaliation has any use beyond deterrence - just retaliate and threaten further action enough to deter America. Retaliation has no use beyond that; this isn't some Shakespearean tragedy like Tommy Cotton wants Chinese students to study. What China needs to do is achieve core technology independence as soon as possible and all efforts should be focused on that goal. The US is a burning building and China needs to reach the exit as expeditiously as it can. Sure, grab the fire extinguisher and douse any flames that are in your way, but don't stick around beyond that.

Click to expand...

A medical supply export ban is the most effective retaliation.

Other forms of retaliation are weak. Attacking Apple when America wants Apple to move production out of China anyways? Give me a break.

manqiangrexue said:

So you've managed to "kill" a bunch of Americans who were poor, old, unskilled, addicted to substances, and eating free meals off of the government every day. And the rest of the world sees China as a country that will happily threaten patient lives with its politics. It's just as ugly, desperate, and unreliable a leader as Trump is. The world sees that this is the risk you take when you fully trust and invest in Chinese manufacturing. What have you accomplished and what's your next move? Does that make America less likely to try to sabotage China again because less than a percent of its poorest, most useless people died?

Ask yourself what does your enemy fear the most and don't waste time on other things. Does America fear that it might lose a million or 2 million people who are mostly old and poor in a population of over 330 million, or does America fear Chinese technological growth and innovation? Don't let your anger turn this into a difficult question.

I'm not saying hold back and be less vicious; I'm saying don't do stupid things that don't actually serve your interests.

Click to expand...

The rest of the world will simply see this as part of the continuing trade war. The world is neutral and tries to stay out of these spats.

America will try to sabotage China again irregardless of what action China takes. Might as well take the most effective action.

What the enemy fears the most is an export ban on medical supplies.

localizer said:

Look guys, Chinese are smarter than this simple retaliation.

There are better long term options to win.

1. No more buying US debt.
2. Strengthen RMB overtime while strengthening/innovating manufacturing sector to maintain exports.
3. Turn existing dollars into investments into tech and infrastructure development.
4. Strengthen alliances with the rest of the world.

We Chinese are above a Trump like retaliation.

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All these measures are a big piece of nothing.

1. Other countries will buy American debt. Not buying American debt has zero effect. Japan and the European Union are not just going to stop buying American debt because China stops.
2. The RMB will never be a widely used currency as long as capital controls exist (and I support those capital controls because they are necessary for the current economic model to work - but you simply can't have a widely used currency without them).
3. Sounds nice, but Huawei still can't make mobile phones under these American sanctions.
4. Sounds nice again, but China's not great at making friends - and I don't expect its ability to do so to change anytime in the future.

j17wang said:

Despite the rhetoric right now, the US is still deeply divided on COVID, and as many fingers are pointed towards Trump right now as they are to China, there is no need to fully unite both the left and right under one cause through denial of PPE.

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No, the United States is not deeply divided. Americans hate China and want to get revenge on China once they recover. Whether or not China puts an export ban on medical supplies, they will still want revenge and hate China. Might as well do the ban as retaliation for Huawei.

Keep things civil everyone, do not use swear words. I understand people have heightened emotions about this, but we do try to maintain a level of properness here.

Hadoren and free_6ix9ine, consider these to be formal warnings. Next time swear words are used, there will be a one week ban as warning.

j17wang said:

Agreed not helpful to harm a segment of the US population, the rest of the country will cry crocodile tears and spin it as the New Pearl Harbour. Despite the rhetoric right now, the US is still deeply divided on COVID, and as many fingers are pointed towards Trump right now as they are to China, there is no need to fully unite both the left and right under one cause through denial of PPE. Besides, the US is bleeding more than China each day right now (until they get the pandemic under control).

The US announcement said materials in production will get a 120 day grace period to not interrupt business continuity. 120 days is more than enough time for China to craft a proportionate and appropriate response, and I'm sure various scenarios were already being formulated by Huawei in conjunction with the central government. Timing of 120 days takes us to mid-September, which allows any potential response to be taken in the context of the november elections. Also, by mid-august, we will have a very good understanding of any potential 2nd waves within the US and the impact of the pre-mature lifting of lockdown.

Again, I don't think china needs 120 days to respond, but there is enough time for china to evaluate any and all options on the table.

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Note that the Global Times article was published a few hours after the US made the announcement.
For this sort of announcement, it means the government source was already pre-authorised to speak to the Global Times about adding US companies to the unreliable entity list. Normally you need rounds of meetings with a lot of different stakeholders, before the Chinese government can agree a policy response.

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Given a further Huawei escalation has been expected for months now, I fully expect that Huawei-US actions have already been gamed out, and appropriate responses drawn up.
We saw the same thing with the islands in the South China Seas, with immediate responses to US actions.

As you mention, there is a 120 day grace period. But it takes 90-120days for a chip to be made, so the impact will be almost immediate.

But in the current situation, it is literally impossible to replace China as a production base for semiconductors and every other product.
Nor is there any realistic replacement for Chinese demand and Chinese consumers.
And the gap between Chinese growth and US growth is going to be widen this year, due to COVID-19.

So I expect that there will be huge pressure from Apple, Cisco, Qualcomm, Boeing, Micron, Intel, AMD etc in the coming weeks, and that the Trump Administration will quietly walk this back.

Remember that a few months ago, the government officials most in favour of restrictions on selling US products to China and Huawei were fired by Trump.
So I suspect more US officials will be fired in the aftermath.