Chinese semiconductor industry

manqiangrexue · May 15, 2020

Hadoren said:
A medical supply export ban does truly harm the United States. It's a very effective use of time and energy.

Far from being a waste of energy/time/resources - a medical supply export ban is the most effective tool China has.

A medical supply export ban is the most effective retaliation.

Other forms of retaliation are weak. Attacking Apple when America wants Apple to move production out of China anyways? Give me a break.

The rest of the world will simply see this as part of the continuing trade war. The world is neutral and tries to stay out of these spats.

America will try to sabotage China again irregardless of what action China takes. Might as well take the most effective action.

What the enemy fears the most is an export ban on medical supplies.

Repeating the your claim over and over that a medical ban will really harm America is not strengthening it, just like no matter how many times Trump says more people died in China than in the US from COVID-19, it's not going to be true. Reread post #152 (mine) and answer what you can achieve by depriving medical supplies to America's oldest, poorest, least educated demographic. Post an actual response this time rather than a cut and past of your unsupported claims. The US considers these people dead weight right now. You don't have to ban medical supplies; the US federal government has already actively seized supplies en route to hospitals. If you think that the US needs these people alive to be an effective country, that it cares for these people more than they fear Chinese economic and technological growth, then you truly do not know what is important. You're blinded by your feverish hate, simply wanting to see Americans die but have lost the ability to think rationally at the big picture and the real prize. And if you think that the world will not have a negative opinion seeing China deprive the US of medical supplies when lives are at stake for the sake of Huawei tussle, then you don't live on this planet. Something like that will be the perfect scapegoat for why so many Americans are dying and for the US to convince the world that China has deadly intent.

Apple wants to move some of its production to other places with cheaper labor but Apple's biggest fear is to lose the Chinese market. Want a break? Take a break from thinking if you didn't figure that one out.

Hadoren · May 15, 2020

manqiangrexue said:
Repeating the your claim over and over that a medical ban will really harm America is not strengthening it, just like no matter how many times Trump says more people died in China than in the US from COVID-19, it's not going to be true. Reread post #152 (mine) and answer what you can achieve by depriving medical supplies to America's oldest, poorest, least educated demographic. Post an actual response this time rather than a cut and past of your unsupported claims. The US considers these people dead weight right now. You don't have to ban medical supplies; the US federal government has already actively seized supplies en route to hospitals. If you think that the US needs these people alive to be an effective country, that it cares for these people more than they fear Chinese economic and technological growth, then you truly do not know what is important. You're blinded by your feverish hate, simply wanting to see Americans die but have lost the ability to think rationally at the big picture and the real prize. And if you think that the world will not have a negative opinion seeing China deprive the US of medical supplies when lives are at stake for the sake of Huawei tussle, then you don't live on this planet. Something like that will be the perfect scapegoat for why so many Americans are dying and for the US to convince the world that China has deadly intent.

Apple wants to move some of its production to other places with cheaper labor but Apple's biggest fear is to lose the Chinese market. Want a break? Take a break from thinking if you didn't figure that one out.

Of course a medical supplies ban will do devastating damage, far more than any useless action on Treasuries or Apple or whatever. There's a pandemic that's killing tens of Americans. America is in desperate need of medical supplies (e.g. masks) to stop Americans from dying.

Doctors need masks. Reporters need masks. CEO's need them. The Trump White House needs them. Not just the old and poor.

This is America's weak spot, and it needs to be hit when the TSMC Huawei ban goes into effect.

The world is neutral and has always been. It wants to stay out of this fight. They will not have anymore a negative opinion of China than they already have, especially when China redirects medical supplies to them.

Besides, an export ban on medical supplies is not unique to China. The European Union bans medical supply exports. Australia bans them. Brazil does too. And Indonesia. And Iran. And Pakistan. And Peru. Ukraine places heavy restrictions on medical supply exports. As does the United Kingdom. And the United States. South Korea bans mask exports. Taiwan bans mask exports. And Malaysia. And Thailand. And Turkey. India places heavy restrictions on mask exports. So does Vietnam. There are tons and tons of countries that do this. Here's a full list:

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Australia, Brazil, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam restrict PPE to the United States - does the world see them as evil for doing so? Of course not.

China already is a scapegoat. America already is convinced China is evil, and America will try to get revenge no matter what happens.

To be frank, I'm really bewildered by the resistance to this simple and most effective tool China possesses to retaliate against American attacks.

manqiangrexue · May 15, 2020

Hadoren said:
Of course a medical supplies ban will do devastating damage, far more than any useless action on Treasuries or Apple or whatever. There's a pandemic that's killing tens of Americans. America is in desperate need of medical supplies (e.g. masks) to stop Americans from dying.

Doctors need masks. Reporters need masks. CEO's need them. The Trump White House needs them. Not just the old and poor.

This is America's weak spot, and it needs to be hit when the TSMC Huawei ban goes into effect.

The world is neutral and has always been. It wants to stay out of this fight. They will not have anymore a negative opinion of China than they already have, especially when China redirects medical supplies to them.

Besides, an export ban on medical supplies is not unique to China. The European Union bans medical supply exports. Australia bans them. Brazil does too. And Indonesia. And Iran. And Pakistan. And Peru. Ukraine places heavy restrictions on medical supply exports. As does the United Kingdom. And the United States. South Korea bans mask exports. Taiwan bans mask exports. And Malaysia. And Thailand. And Turkey. India places heavy restrictions on mask exports. So does Vietnam. There are tons and tons of countries that do this. Here's a full list:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Australia, Brazil, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam restrict PPE to the United States - does the world see them as evil for doing so? Of course not.

China already is a scapegoat. America already is convinced China is evil, and America will try to get revenge no matter what happens.

To be frank, I'm really bewildered by the resistance to this simple and most effective tool China possesses to retaliate against American attacks.

To be frank, I'm bewildered and your inability to understand a simple question: In a population of 330 million, why does it matter if the bottom million or so old, uneducated, poor, welfare-prone members die? I don't know why it's so difficult for you to understand this question; you either just repeat the claim that it's really important or you say that lots of people dying is important. Let me create an analogy to possibly make it easier for you to understand: If you have a community of 330 people, how much of a problem would it be for you if the stupidest, drunkest, poorest, most useless person who always bums food from everyone, died? 1 in 330 would equal 1 million deaths, by the way.

The world, especially the EU, has never traditionally been neutral. America has had for more allied support than China. They are recently becoming more neutral seeing America's aggressive and incompetent new persona in comparison to China's competence and benevolence. You're saying China should cancel it out and have an ass-hat competition to show the world which country is better at playing dirty, and the likely result is that they will default to their old positions if China balances out the equation to pre-Trump levels.

Everyone else can make these bans because they're not major manufacturers. China is the world's biggest manufacturer and everyone relies on China. If you and all your neighbors all keep your handkerchief shoelace masks to yourself, that's fine but if 3M says it's keeping all its masks to itself, it's going to be a big problem.

Hadoren · May 15, 2020

manqiangrexue said:
To be frank, I'm bewildered and your inability to understand a simple question: In a population of 330 million, why does it matter if the bottom million or so old, uneducated, poor, welfare-prone members die? I don't know why it's so difficult for you to understand this question; you either just repeat the claim that it's really important or you say that lots of people dying is important. Let me create an analogy to possibly make it easier for you to understand: If you have a community of 330 people, how much of a problem would it be for you if the stupidest, drunkest, poorest, most useless person who always bums food from everyone, died? 1 in 330 would equal 1 million deaths, by the way.

The world, especially the EU, has never traditionally been neutral. America has had for more allied support than China. They are recently becoming more neutral seeing America's aggressive and incompetent new persona in comparison to China's competence and benevolence. You're saying China should cancel it out and have an ass-hat competition to show the world which country is better at playing dirty, and the likely result is that they will default to their old positions if China balances out the equation to pre-Trump levels.

Everyone else can make these bans because they're not major manufacturers. China is the world's biggest manufacturer and everyone relies on China. If you and all your neighbors all keep your handkerchief shoelace masks to yourself, that's fine but if 3M says it's keeping all its masks to itself, it's going to be a big problem.

Medical supplies don't just go to the poor. Rich and poor people alike need to wear masks. The people who run the American government, and the vast majority of American CEO's, are old people.

Honestly I don't see the European Union as suddenly being angry at a Chinese medical supply export ban to America, especially when China redirects the medical supplies to Europe. They will just see this as part of a continuing conflict they have no desire to participate in.

Yes, China being a major manufacturer and stopping medical supplies to America will be a big problem. That's the point. If America delinks TSMC and Huawei, China needs to give America a big problem.

Edit:

manqiangrexue said:
In a population of 330 million, why does it matter if the bottom million or so old, uneducated, poor, welfare-prone members die?

Obviously not just the uneducated, poor, and welfare-prone will die from corona. Have a look at some of the American obituaries; there are a lot of educated, rich, and tax-paying people there. As for old people - 40% of Americans are older than 45, so...

Thus, educated, rich, tax-paying, people of all ages need medical supplies (e.g. masks).

localizer · May 15, 2020

Hadoren said:
Medical supplies don't just go to the poor. Rich and poor people alike need to wear masks. The people who run the American government, and the vast majority of American CEO's, are old people.

Honestly I don't see the European Union as suddenly being angry at a Chinese medical supply export ban to America, especially when China redirects the medical supplies to Europe. They will just see this as part of a continuing conflict they have no desire to participate in.

Yes, China being a major manufacturer and stopping medical supplies to America will be a big problem. That's the point. If America delinks TSMC and Huawei, China needs to give America a big problem.

It's not a big problem though. China will solve this. No need to overreact.

Again, think long term.

manqiangrexue · May 15, 2020

Hadoren said:
Medical supplies don't just go to the poor. Rich and poor people alike need to wear masks. The people who run the American government, and the vast majority of American CEO's, are old people.

Honestly I don't see the European Union as suddenly being angry at a Chinese medical supply export ban to America, especially when China redirects the medical supplies to Europe. They will just see this as part of a continuing conflict they have no desire to participate in.

Yes, China being a major manufacturer and stopping medical supplies to America will be a big problem. That's the point. If America delinks TSMC and Huawei, China needs to give America a big problem.

No. Limited supplies are being used up by the rich. I think you might not know that a vastly disproportionate number of poor desolate people and minorities are dying in the US. When supply is low, these are the people who don't get what they need while the rich and upper class still do. This is an engineered disparity to keep important people alive while those who do no contribute or eat up social funds are left to die in a sort of cleaning house. I hope you know that as you watch the death toll in the US tick up, these are mostly the types of people who are dying. The US isn't losing 90,000 talented engineers, scientists, business moguls, etc...

Favoring other destinations than the US in a non-announced fashion is fine, but you're talking about publicized a ban of medical equipment to the US during a pandemic in political retaliation and that's quite frankly going to be seen all over the world as an crime against humanity.

You don't understand what big problem means. I mean a big problem for you, or 3M, in that analogy. If 3M refused to sell masks and hoarded them by the millions during a pandemic, then the company is pretty much done from there gong forward. It will be seen as evil, unreliable and nobody will want to do business with it again after the pandemic is over. Its rivals will eat up its share of the market. If the world sees China as a country that uses a pandemic to ban medical supplies to a rival country in order to cause deaths, I really don't know how much more direct I can get than that. There's not much I can think that would ruin your reputation worse than that.

Hadoren · May 15, 2020

localizer said:
It's not a big problem though. China will solve this. No need to overreact.

Again, think long term.

It is a big problem. The supply chain goes Huawei <= TSMC (5nm) <= ASML (EUV) <= Carl Zeiss (glass).

America is prohibiting Chinese companies from getting ASML's EUV. ASML is at the cutting edge of science and something that China fundamentally hasn't started on. A lot of people like to say China is ten years behind on everything. But with EUV, China really is ten years behind.

Without EUV, China cannot make 5nm or below. Thus it must depend on TSMC.

Without 5nm and TSMC, Huawei cannot make mobile phones (especially as 5nm goes to 3nm, 2nm, etc.).

manqiangrexue said:
No. Limited supplies are being used up by the rich. I think you might not know that a vastly disproportionate number of poor desolate people and minorities are dying in the US. When supply is low, these are the people who don't get what they need while the rich and upper class still do. I hope you know that as you watch the death toll in the US tick up, these are mostly the types of people who are dying. The US isn't losing 90,000 talented engineers, scientists, business moguls, etc...

Favoring other destinations than the US in a non-announced fashion is fine, but you're talking about a ban of medical equipment to the US during a pandemic in political retaliation and that's quite frankly going to be seen all over the world as an crime against humanity.

You don't understand what big problem means. I mean a big problem for you, or 3M, in that analogy. If 3M refused to sell masks and hoarded them by the millions during a pandemic, then it's pretty much done. It will be seen as evil and nobody will want to do business with it again after the pandemic is over. Its rivals will eat up its share of the market. If the world sees China as a country that uses a pandemic to ban medical supplies to a rival country in order to cause deaths, I really don't know how much more direct I can get than that. There's not much I can think that would ruin your reputation than that.

It's not a crime against humanity. Australia, Brazil, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, and many many more countries restrict PPE to the United States. Does nobody want to do business with them again after the pandemic is over?

manqiangrexue · May 15, 2020

Hadoren said:
It's not a crime against humanity. Australia, Brazil, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, and many many more countries restrict PPE to the United States. Does nobody want to do business with them again after the pandemic is over?

I can't keep writing the same things to you over and over again just because you can't read. I'll quote myself from #163:

"Everyone else can make these bans because they're not major manufacturers. China is the world's biggest manufacturer and everyone relies on China. If you and all your neighbors all keep your handkerchief shoelace masks to yourself, that's fine but if 3M says it's keeping all its masks to itself, it's going to be a big problem. "

j17wang · May 15, 2020

AndrewS said:
Note that the Global Times article was published a few hours after the US made the announcement.
For this sort of announcement, it means the government source was already pre-authorised to speak to the Global Times about adding US companies to the unreliable entity list. Normally you need rounds of meetings with a lot of different stakeholders, before the Chinese government can agree a policy response.

Given a further Huawei escalation has been expected for months now, I fully expect that Huawei-US actions have already been gamed out, and appropriate responses drawn up.
We saw the same thing with the islands in the South China Seas, with immediate responses to US actions.

As you mention, there is a 120 day grace period. But it takes 90-120days for a chip to be made, so the impact will be almost immediate.

But in the current situation, it is literally impossible to replace China as a production base for semiconductors and every other product.
Nor is there any realistic replacement for Chinese demand and Chinese consumers.
And the gap between Chinese growth and US growth is going to be widen this year, due to COVID-19.

So I expect that there will be huge pressure from Apple, Cisco, Qualcomm, Boeing, Micron, Intel, AMD etc in the coming weeks, and that the Trump Administration will quietly walk this back.

Remember that a few months ago, the government officials most in favour of restrictions on selling US products to China and Huawei were fired by Trump.
So I suspect more US officials will be fired in the aftermath.

Hi Andrew, you nailed it. I also think the global times article was already in pre-print, and ready to go. The press releases for different scenarios were probably prepared with cooperation from the central government months in advance (likely December during the trade negotiations, since this would have been the mostly likely outcome if the trade talks failed back then).

The more I think about it, I believe the US was also signaling to Beijing that it shouldn't consider backing out of phase 1 trade deal (which was rumored by Global Times earlier). I don't think the US played all its cards on the table, because otherwise it would have also specifically targeted Lenovo and BKK to bring China back to the stone-age.

Right now, the government is likely reaching out to 3rd parties (i.e. the Samsung,TSCM...) to test the extent they are willing to skirt around the US (i.e. turn the other way without blatantly violating the US announcement). Also agree that chips are long-lead, but in practice the 120 day grace period will move, its not likely order queues from Huawei's suppliers will be cut-off over the next few days.

In reality, China doesn't require other 3rd parties to perpetually choose it vs the US, it just needs to buy some time to bridge the gap before its own industrial base can replace those components. For this reason, I don't see this announcement as significant to geopolitical considerations compared to if the US had denied the export of leap engines for COMAC C919 (which they may still do).

Hadoren · May 15, 2020

manqiangrexue said:
I can't keep writing the same things to you over and over again just because you can't read. I'll quote myself from #163:

"Everyone else can make these bans because they're not major manufacturers. China is the world's biggest manufacturer and everyone relies on China. If you and all your neighbors all keep your handkerchief shoelace masks to yourself, that's fine but if 3M says it's keeping all its masks to itself, it's going to be a big problem. "

That's exactly why a medical supplies export ban to America is China's most effective tool of retaliation.

We want America to have a big problem, if it sanctions TSMC and Huawei. That's the point.

Also, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam are big manufacturers. Combined they probably are several times bigger than China.

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