Chinese semiconductor industry

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localizer

localizer

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Registered Member
Skywatcher said:
By 2023, Intel claims it'll introduce its 5nm.

Assuming the current 4-5 year for SMIC (and 7 for Changchun Institute regarding lithographic etching) lag behind global state of the art, SMIC will probably also have 5nm in that timeframe.
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Hard to say when China can catch up. The knowledge is there, it's just getting to it.

Question now is how will China retaliate.

This is a matter of sovereignty. US is undermining Chinese sovereignty through this incident. I can imagine some taiwanese getting uncomfortable with all of this.
 
hullopilllw

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
localizer said:
Hard to say when China can catch up. The knowledge is there, it's just getting to it.

Question now is how will China retaliate.

This is a matter of sovereignty. US is undermining Chinese sovereignty through this incident. I can imagine some taiwanese getting uncomfortable with all of this.
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Seeing the rate at which China's domestic market is growing, you can safely bet whose side is time on. Market size advantage and ability to scale productions are structural trump card which US used to possess over all other competitors, but sadly not this time.
 
superdog

superdog

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localizer said:
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Includes boeing and apple.
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And this is why:
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Note that this is still technically a "licensing requirement" rather than a ban, and they just recently extended (yet again) their "expected final" temp general license for exporting to Huawei.

So, again it looks like the US is trying to play this as a bargaining chip. I would expect perhaps more posturing in the next couple months from both sides, but I don't expect a "final showdown" right now. For those who can't wait to advocate for the most extereme Chinese retaliation, have some patience, I think we're not there yet.

Honestly, the longer Trump tries to drag this out, the more irreparable damage it will do to the US tech sector, and the less hurtful it will be to Huawei and China. But the US damages are long term, not that important for a president with 4 years left at most. From his (self-interest) perspective, using this as a new distraction is not that bad an idea as attacking China via the COVID-19 topic has been back-firing too much. If all I care is staying in power rather than benefiting my country, I'd do the same.
 
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AssassinsMace

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
The first thing China should do is stop selling rare earths to the US and anyone that buys rare earths to make things for sale to the US. It's something no matter what the US thinks it can do, China can manipulate their costs on the world market making the US pay a lot whether they make them at home or buy overseas.
 
C

Canuck place

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superdog said:
And this is why:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Note that this is still technically a "licensing requirement" rather than a ban, and they just recently extended (yet again) their "expected final" temp general license for exporting to Huawei.

So, again it looks like the US is trying to play this as a bargaining chip. I would expect perhaps more posturing in the next couple months from both sides, but I don't expect a "final showdown" right now. For those who can't wait to advocate for the most extereme Chinese retaliation, have some patience, I think we're not there yet.

Honestly, the longer Trump tries to drag this out, the more irreparable damage it will do to the US tech sector, and the less hurtful it will be to Huawei and China. But the US damages are long term, not that important for a president with 4 years left at most. From his (self-interest) perspective, using this as a new distraction is not that bad an idea as attacking China via the COVID-19 topic has been back-firing too much. If all I care is staying in power rather than benefiting my country, I'd do the same.
Click to expand...

Technically though this would also affect smic and most other founderies. And Chinese AI companies as well I'm afraid since they are also on the entity list. The Chinese govt must have been expecting this. Although not sure what they have planned.
 
S

Skywatcher

Captain
superdog said:
And this is why:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Note that this is still technically a "licensing requirement" rather than a ban, and they just recently extended (yet again) their "expected final" temp general license for exporting to Huawei.

So, again it looks like the US is trying to play this as a bargaining chip. I would expect perhaps more posturing in the next couple months from both sides, but I don't expect a "final showdown" right now. For those who can't wait to advocate for the most extereme Chinese retaliation, have some patience, I think we're not there yet.

Honestly, the longer Trump tries to drag this out, the more irreparable damage it will do to the US tech sector, and the less hurtful it will be to Huawei and China. But the US damages are long term, not that important for a president with 4 years left at most. From his (self-interest) perspective, using this as a new distraction is not that bad an idea as attacking China via the COVID-19 topic has been back-firing too much. If all I care is staying in power rather than benefiting my country, I'd do the same.
Click to expand...
There's another impetus for continuing to grant licenses.

If TSMC's revenue drops by 20-25%, what planned future capacities do you think will end up on the chopping block?
 
free_6ix9ine

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
superdog said:
And this is why:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Note that this is still technically a "licensing requirement" rather than a ban, and they just recently extended (yet again) their "expected final" temp general license for exporting to Huawei.

So, again it looks like the US is trying to play this as a bargaining chip. I would expect perhaps more posturing in the next couple months from both sides, but I don't expect a "final showdown" right now. For those who can't wait to advocate for the most extereme Chinese retaliation, have some patience, I think we're not there yet.

Honestly, the longer Trump tries to drag this out, the more irreparable damage it will do to the US tech sector, and the less hurtful it will be to Huawei and China. But the US damages are long term, not that important for a president with 4 years left at most. From his (self-interest) perspective, using this as a new distraction is not that bad an idea as attacking China via the COVID-19 topic has been back-firing too much. If all I care is staying in power rather than benefiting my country, I'd do the same.
Click to expand...

Sure but we definitely need to retaliate. Ban medical equipment exports. Trump's grand reopening is gonna lead to a huge second wave of COVID cases thats gonna overwhelm their medical system in a month's time. They will be desperate for PPE and ventilators.
 
localizer

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
free_6ix9ine said:
Sure but we definitely need to retaliate. Ban medical equipment exports. Trump's grand reopening is gonna lead to a huge second wave of COVID cases thats gonna overwhelm their medical system in a month's time. They will be desperate for PPE and ventilators.
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Retaliation should not ban exports. That hurts Chinese.

China needs to be smart and play the big picture such as doing stuff with its dollar and US treasuries holdings.
 
free_6ix9ine

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
localizer said:
Retaliation should not ban exports. That hurts Chinese.

China needs to be smart and play the big picture such as doing stuff with its dollar and US treasuries holdings.
Click to expand...

However we retaliate, there is going to be damage. We have no leverage with treasury holdings, the economy is doing so bad, every investment fund/central bank are buying up treasuries as fast they can, because they are safer to hold than stocks or cash (depreciation). So even if we sell treasuries, it won't materially affect the U.S. Plus liquidating a lot of treasuries at the same time will mean that we would have to sell it at a lower price.

If we retaliate by banning PPE that would devestate the US healthcare system, especially because COVID cases are growing again with Trump reopening the economy. Sure exports would be down, but which country in the world isn't desperately buying PPE and ventilators? I am sure we can find other buyers, or we can donate it to our allies.
 
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