Chinese semiconductor industry

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FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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tokenanalyst said:
There is huge problem with that mentality, US hawks may think that they are in a new "cold war" but the Chinese high commands may have other mentality and different from the USSR the Chinese usually operate under market principles (yes even their state sector), as US cut supply from their side, the demand will stay the same on the China side, increasing the possibility that China own companies fulfil that demand, because the shear size of the Chinese market any company who gets big in China gets big globally and Chinese companies will not get content with just the local market, they will go globally, increasing their global market share and coupling themselves even more with the global supply chain the that US hawks desperately wants to decouple.
In fact I dare to say, that in this case US is the USSR, because they are using the national security excuse to harm their own economic interest pretty much how the USSR did back them.

But don't mind me. I am just passing by.
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From 1880s until the 1980s, 100 years, automotive and engine tech were the foundation of industrial society. Any country that could build cars was an industrial powerhouse.

Pre WW2, even countries like Czechoslovakia was an industrial powerhouse with 1 million rifles, 4000 artillery pieces and hundreds of tanks and aircraft in a country of 10 million, because they had Skoda Motors. In comparison even imperial Japan had just 2000 tanks for a country of 100 million. No coincidence that at the time, Toyota was in it's infancy and Honda didn't exist, and no coincidence that postwar Japan focused so heavily on automobiles.

Just 10 years of investment from Ford Motors transformed USSR from a medieval monarchy into an industrial superpower. The foundations of steel/engine/automotive manufacturing design set by Ford engineers in steel, auto and engines gave USSR the industry needed to crush Nazi Germany and compete almost head to head (along with Warsaw Pact) with NATO for 45 years despite smaller population and economy in a much more difficult climate.

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Today electronics is a new cornerstone of modern society. After 40 years of experience in electronics and billions in investment, they really think Chinese can't do it? When Russians could within 10 years?
 
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Franklin

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gadgetcool5 said:
Washington Raises Stakes in War on Chinese Technology

New U.S. sanctions are in some ways more restrictive than Cold-War era controls.​


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There are some ways in which the evolving export control regime toward China is even more expansive than what the West devised during the Cold War. The old Cold War’s controls were aimed solely at slowing Soviet and Chinese military capabilities, but the new actions have broader goals. A senior U.S. Commerce Department official cited concerns not just over China’s military modernization but also that China “is using these capabilities to monitor, track, and surveil their own citizens.” The new restrictions, the official said, “will protect U.S. national security and foreign-policy interests while also
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that U.S. technological leadership is about values as well as innovation.”

The Cold War experience showed that export controls are far from perfect, and they may do less than their advocates hope to slow China’s technological development. Such restrictions are
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, and countries can often find a way around them through smuggling, espionage, or by routing deliveries through third countries. The Soviet Union still developed advanced nuclear and other weaponry despite all the technology restrictions. But in another sense, Western export controls probably succeeded: The Soviet Union, right up to its demise, lagged behind the United States and its allies in
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, opening up an ever large gap in both economic and military capabilities with its Western rivals.

With the more integrated supply chains of the 21st century, the United States has more capacity to harm Chinese efforts at the highest ends of technology development, which will weaken both its commercial competitiveness and its military capabilities. Blinken’s diplomatic niceties about not wanting a Cold War with China aside, U.S. actions now seem very much intended to block China’s rise as a major power.
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Export controls against China won't work like with the USSR. First of all in the USSR people have very little contact with technology in their daily lives. Technology in the USSR is limited to the arms industry, university and research institutes. In China technology is ubiquitous in people's daily lives. That means that in China people are more tech savvy than their Soviet counterparts but also there is more people that understand and can develop technology. It also means there is a market for technology in China in a way there wasn't in the USSR. If the Americans won't sell then someone else will. Rather those are domestic companies or other international companies. If America's allies are not completely in on this strategy (which they are not) than it only means loss of market share for US companies.

Secondly China has much more exposure to western technology than the Soviets had. Meaning the Chinese knows how western technology works and China will make it work for them.

China has the talent, money and market size to develop these technologies domestically and make it economically viable.

The Americans are using their old playbook to a whole new situation and opponent and thinks what works in the past will work again. But i'm afraid that this will not work out for them this time.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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Franklin said:
Export controls against China won't work like with the USSR. First of all in the USSR people have very little contact with technology in their daily lives. Technology in the USSR is limited to the arms industry, university and research institutes. In China technology is ubiquitous in people's daily lives. That means that in China people are more tech savvy than their Soviet counterparts but also there is more people that understand and can develop technology. It also means there is a market for technology in China in a way there wasn't in the USSR. If the Americans won't sell then someone else will. Rather those are domestic companies or other international companies. If America's allies are not completely in on this strategy (which they are not) than it only means loss of market share for US companies.

Secondly China has much more exposure to western technology than the Soviets had. Meaning the Chinese knows how western technology works and China will make it work for them.

China has the talent, money and market size to develop these technologies domestically and make it economically viable.

The Americans are using their old playbook to a whole new situation and opponent and thinks what works in the past will work again. But i'm afraid that this will not work out for them this time.
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In the USSR the relevant technology was the automobile. Ford started investing in the USSR in 1929 when it started selling cars there and was hired on as a consultant in the Magnitogorsk steel project.

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In the 10 year leadup to WW2, Russia went from a country with no steel or auto industry to being a top tier producer of steel, autos and engines.

That foundation was enough to jumpstart Soviet R&D into aircraft, analog electronics, industrial equipment, etc. They kept up until the 1980s.

Only 45 years of isolation by a country with 60% of global GDP could make them lag behind.

Today US is 20% of global GDP and China has 40 years of foreign investment instead of 10.
 
T

tokenanalyst

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Franklin said:
Export controls against China won't work like with the USSR. First of all in the USSR people have very little contact with technology in their daily lives. Technology in the USSR is limited to the arms industry, university and research institutes. In China technology is ubiquitous in people's daily lives. That means that in China people are more tech savvy than their Soviet counterparts but also there is more people that understand and can develop technology. It also means there is a market for technology in China in a way there wasn't in the USSR. If the Americans won't sell then someone else will. Rather those are domestic companies or other international companies. If America's allies are not completely in on this strategy (which they are not) than it only means loss of market share for US companies.

Secondly China has much more exposure to western technology than the Soviets had. Meaning the Chinese knows how western technology works and China will make it work for them.

China has the talent, money and market size to develop these technologies domestically and make it economically viable.

The Americans are using their old playbook to a whole new situation and opponent and thinks what works in the past will work again. But i'm afraid that this will not work out for them this time.
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The commercial demand for GPUs and high end chips is not going to go away in China just because the US don't want to sell them, pretty much like the hungry for EUV lithography in China has not go away just because they can't get it from ASML, they will gonna get it, whatever ASML sells them or or someone else inside China is going to fulfill it, it will inevitable happen.

FairAndUnbiased said:
Today electronics is a new cornerstone of modern society. After 40 years of experience in electronics and billions in investment, they really think Chinese can't do it? When Russians could within 10 years?
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Exactly.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

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Ptah said:
The US is against Xi not China.
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But China is with Xi, so the US is against China. Americans who say that are only trying to comfort themselves into thinking that their opponent is one man or one government; they are too scared to even come to terms with the fact that their opponent is 1.4 billion people.
Ptah said:
Scientific minds do not thrive in authoritarian regimes. One way or another they come into crossroads with the despots
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That may be true but China dominates in patents, scientific publications, and new technology innovation because China is not authoritarian. It is simply a better form of government that the West cannot and is scared to understand.
 
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T

tokenanalyst

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Ptah said:
The US is against Xi not China.
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Maybe, but Xi is just a person. A powerful individual but just a person. The attack is against the entirety of China commercial sector and economy. But worst is against the "market equilibrium forces" THAT FOR SOME F*CKING REASON FAVORED THE UNITED STATES, it defy logic.
Yeah, maybe Xi wanted China to have "technological independence", but guess what? before that sanctions against ZTE and Huawei Chinese suppliers have always prefered Americans suppler no only over Chinese ones but Japanese,Taiwanese and European suppliers. Not only the Trump and Biden administration have get Xi Jinping vindicated in the eyes of the Chinese people but they have give the most powerful tool to archive such goals that the Chinese goverment have ever had in their hand: Market Forces.
 
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