Chinese semiconductor industry

Petrolicious88 said:

In the marathon between US - China, you win by constantly trying to trip your opponent (sanctions and bans, which will continue going forward) and/or outrun your opponent (e.g, Chips and Science Act). China's best option is also the latter; heads down, work hard, innovate, leapfrog, etc.

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CHIPS act doesn't work. there's some things you can't throw money at, it'll just go down a black hole.

Prime example: Indian industry. Ford left India after decades of losing money, and Indian auto industry is still shit, while just 10 years of Ford leapfrogged Russia from medieval monarchy to socialist superpower.

The whole affirmative action woke STEM initiative thing is not working. College enrollment rates are dropping like a rock. So are test scores. Bad materials = bad product.

I wonder if these new regulations give impetus for American firms to invest in competitors or to duplicate their IP to deAmericanize it.

FairAndUnbiased said:

CHIPS act doesn't work. there's some things you can't throw money at, it'll just go down a black hole.

Prime example: Indian industry. Ford left India after decades of losing money, and Indian auto industry is still shit, while just 10 years of Ford leapfrogged Russia from medieval monarchy to socialist superpower.

The whole affirmative action woke STEM initiative thing is not working. College enrollment rates are dropping like a rock. So are test scores. Bad materials = bad product.

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This sounds sounds more like cope than something rooted in reality.

Their two pronged approach will have short to medium term Huawei-like effect as China's advanced fab capabilities stagnate.

In the end though , China's vast STEM base and market opportunities will ensure that China will have a completely indigenous semiconductor industry capable of going toe to toe with whatever the US has.

Topazchen said:

This sounds sounds more like cope than something rooted in reality.

Their two pronged approach will have short to medium term Huawei-like effect as China's advanced fab capabilities stagnate.

In the end though , China's vast STEM base and market opportunities will ensure that China will have a completely indigenous semiconductor industry capable of going toe to toe with whatever the US has.

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Their sanctions may have some minor temporary effect but the CHIPS act won't. It'll result in wasteful zombie companies with privatized profit and public loss.

european_guy said:

Probably SK Hynix and Samsung will get the license to bring in US equipment in China, but for sure it won't be free. There will be strings attached, like Chip 4 alliance, build fabs in US, ban something to China.

It is good time for China to fully step in and offer them an alternative, even for free, does not matter. If Samsung and SK can break US blackmail, it would be a huge win for China. It is already clear that without the support of his so called allies, the king is naked.

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I mean ultimately, Biden administration is saying this is to win against main land. The reality is that they will gladly steamroll Korea and Taiwan along the way. We have already seen this with IRA. Laws put into place to screw China actually hurt the Koreans more.

So the Koreans can either hope for the best by working with America or realize that economic/industrial nationalism will continue to force them to move more production to America. I see them more incentivized than ever to buy tools from non-American sources. Chinese tool makers stand to profit if they can ramp up.

By the way, I think this is a great opportunity for Chinese EDA companies. SMIC is simply not ready for the really advanced nodes that require EUV. If Chinese EDAs can work with Samsung on different processes, then they can advance quicker here. Not really possible to move forward unless the fabs are willing to work with you.

Blitzo said:

More stringent things have been successfully done in the name of national security.

Overall this is a very rational move for the US to make, as they clearly are seeing semiconductor mastery as one of the key prerequisites of national power in economic, military and scientific domains, and thus national security and hegemony.

Breaking a couple of eggs or a few tens of thousands would be well worth the price.


I also do not expect this will be the most stringent of measures the US will put in either. Going forwards, I expect attempts for more far reaching measures and more severe punishments to be enacted as they become more sensitive (or one may argue, desperate).

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The East Germans used to shoot at those who tried to flee across the de-militarized zone back in the Cold War.

No one is being shot at this time, but the intent is the same.

This ban on the people, is really a ban on the know-how.

That is really stupid, because the facts on the ground kind of indicates the know-how already escaped in other words the genie has left the bottle, and the know-how was never ever consistently contained in world history. The know-how disseminates from the few to the many, that always happens.

Too little too late.

Yet again, that is what the Americans are doing. Too little too late.

Seems more like this know-how never spread to those Americans writing up these anti-Chinese laws.

horse said:

This ban on the people, is really a ban on the know-how.

That is really stupid, because the facts on the ground kind of indicates the know-how already escaped in other words the genie has left the bottle, and the know-how was never ever consistently contained in world history. The know-how disseminates from the few to the many, that always happens.

Too little too late.

Yet again, that is what the Americans are doing. Too little too late.

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How do they know what is a semiconductor company anyways? I can call myself a janitorial consultant, specializing in cleaning. I just happen to know much about cleaning wafers and dep/etch chambers but I also know mops and brooms.

FairAndUnbiased said:

How do they know what is a semiconductor company anyways? I can call myself a janitorial consultant, specializing in cleaning. I just happen to know much about cleaning wafers and dep/etch chambers but I also know mops and brooms.

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Yeah, exactly.

This is just another witch-hunt for Chinese IC success or advancement.

That is one way of looking at it, witch-hunt city, like they used to do to the Salem witches and to President Trump. And still doing by the way. Thankfully Elon Musk will be able to buy Twitter, and President Trump will be free at last, unlike these Chinese IC workers in America!

The other way of looking it, the Americans basically acting like the crazy girl friend.

The crazy girl friend is a very unique and unrestrained kind of problem because the situation is highly emotional and volatile.

This is getting too complicated for me!

Where is brother ansy1968? Need some advice.

Help!

The crazy girl friend is possessive.

Very possessive.

Here is the US government saying, "All you Chinese belong to us!"

Gad daynm!