I know we make fun of Dylan Patel but his article highlights how serious the sanctions are - IC tech years old now restricted, leading firms on export ban lists etc… All the developments in China have left me a bit lost on where things stand 1) EDA/Design - looks indep 2) Lithography - Black hole of info mostly ancillary info 3) This one feels like a lot of info has come out but I don’t have a good sense of overall picture
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
- Start date
- Status
antiterror13
Brigadier
I like it " ..... a country with 1/5 of the human population ... " with the extra wording " .. with one of the highest IQ countries ...."
The US semiconductor lobby maybe the only lobby group in modern US history that have failed
Maybe, but shooting yourself in the foot so the guy who is behind you trips over is usually not a good strategy for winning a race.
antiterror13
Brigadier
is not that simple .. why they haven't then ?
Technically yes Japan can, it may take 5-10 years to build with possibly 5x more expensive than ASML with no market ... Jpan just buy it from ASML
The same thing for China too, but now the situating different for China, cost is no longer something to consider. You will see that China will do it again ... like in the past i.e weapons, CNC, satellite, rockets, super computer, engine, etc, etc
Germany (and the rest of Europe too) at the time was well advanced in many fields of technology, more than US. They got rid of Germany and in general of Europe technology leadership only with WW2.
Many people are important, smart people are also important, but I don't see this as the most critical points.
Look at India, they are a lot and are also smart (at least theoretically)....but Indian technology power can grow and will grow but only in the long term and with a lot of contradictions and false starts.
The critical point is organization and working for a purpose. Starting from basic education, to work attitude, to the sharing of goals as common targets of the whole community (this is very critical!), all these are factors that make a difference, a very big difference.
The size plays a role only in relation to the self-dependency. What Japan missed. China is so big that Chinese companies can survive only with internal market if they have to. In this sense size makes a difference. Size defends you against external distruptions, but alone does not guarantee success.
I posted this not a long tome ago were I said the U.S. is in a downward spiral towards fascism, in every presidency democrats had been trying to "out republican" the republicans, more hackish, less caring about the people that vote for them,more corporate (if china is not involved), more wars. With the republicans responding by becoming more fascists themselves., I don't even want to see their worse.
The funny thing, is that this are the "moderates", this are the "pro-business democrats". That is the problem with U.S. politics, is in a downward spiral toward basically fascism, every single administration try to surpass the previous ones on ideology, militarism, corporatism and corruption to the point that there just one party in U.S. politics with democrats being just woke republicans.
It will be not surprise to me if all this drama is because the Democrats want to demonstrate that they are tougher and hackish than Trump. Like if that will help them in any way, shape or form to win in 2024.
antiterror13
Brigadier
Thats your choice and your problem is to mimic what China do with the American mindset
American usually have big announcement and splash video, conference, etc even long before the announcement. East Asian culture is so much different, when they say something you could be sure it is already done
It's not really about elections. The China policy is an elite-level obsession that is actually quite disconnected from output from voting / hence why you see so much uniformity between GOP & Dems. It's a collective DC elite freak-out / hence why there's no off ramp.
I just wonder whether China can retaliate meaningfully against the US.
Okay, I'm a bit burnt-out from all the talk about latest US sanction. Let's inject a little bit of different news. Just as I had predicted, tsmc had a record quarter in Q3 '22:
TSMC Q3 sales smash quarterly records, beat forecast
TSMC posted consolidated sales of NT$613.14 billion (US$19.36 billion) in the July-September period, up 14.79 percent from a quarter earlier, the company said in a statement.
Q3 revenue came in topping high-end of its guidance.
Analysts said that as its major clients continue to launch new devices, TSMC is expected to enjoy stable operations in the fourth quarter to boost its annual consolidated sales above the NT$2 trillion level for the first time.
- Status