Chinese semiconductor industry

vincent said:

Why do people on this forum feel humiliated for China so easily? If these private companies want things to proceed as normal, then they can work with US officials. If not, they can added to entity list. It really depends on how companies like NAURA, YMTC and CXMT view their current indigenization effort. If they are confident, then they can say f u to US inspection and be put on entity list. If they are not confident or don't want to be put on entity list, then they can allowing inspection.

It's just business.

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vincent said:

How will American feel if Chinese regulators wants to inspect American business on US soil for compliances of Chinese laws?

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It's not just a question of proud (that in business rarely helps).

The root reason why they want to put in entity list NAURA, YMTC and CXMT is to slowdown China grow in semiconductor technology. That's the main factual point, even admitted publicly.

Hence, their inspection would not be in good faith but it would be used to acquire precious reserved information to be later used against them. There is absolutely no guarantee the inspection, even if successful, will be enough to avoid the ban, because, as I said the ban root reason is totally unrelated to what they find or don't find at the firms.

tphuang said:

I think this is a really great point. We only know that American tool makers are screwed over here. It was clearly done in a rush before the midterms in a bid to show that the Biden administration is tough on China. It seemed to have been done in a way with 0 input from the industry itself or partner countries.

As such, China can put itself in good light by blasting this terrible precedence by American gov't and pledge to continue working with other countries to strengthen global supply chain. Companies everywhere will be looking for alternatives to American companies so I think TSMC/Samsung more willing to work with NAURA, AMEC and other Chinese companies in making their chips.

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I wouldn't go so far as to say American took makers are screwed just yet, it appears that way on the surface impression but without a deep comb of the operations we don't know the full order of effects. I have a hard time believing that after the Huawei and SMIC sanctions from 2019/2020 that the tool makers haven't taken pre-emptive measures to ensure they can continue to supply the Chinese market regardless of what happens in the US but we will see. It would seem like a dereliction of duty to do so, and result in some very angry shareholders when it turns up in the financial reports.

I do agree that China can and should continue to work with all parties/countries in the semi supply chain if they can commit themselves to being reliable and US interference free. This will continue to demonstrate the allure of the market, and encourage companies/countries to distance themselves from US toxicity. I know its fashionable to bash on US companies because of their country of incorporation and their government, but if anything China should be looking to draw those companies out of the US and into China thanks to the allure of its market, or at the very least draw them out of the US due to their own government's incompetence.

Franklin said:

I need something more concrete than a junior members claim to have heard that SMEE DUV machines are tapping out thousands of wafers in Shanghai.

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This is forum for people to share information, not request information.

About the tapping out, I won’t reveal my source. Lol

european_guy said:

It's not just a question of proud (that in business rarely helps).

The root reason why they want to put in entity list NAURA, YMTC and CXMT is to slowdown China grow in semiconductor technology. That's the main factual point, even admitted publicly.

Hence, their inspection would not be in good faith but it would be used to acquire precious reserved information to be later used against them. There is absolutely no guarantee the inspection, even if successful, will be enough to avoid the ban, because, as I said the ban root reason is totally unrelated to what they find or don't find at the firms.

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Were is Naura on the list?
I have a wild conspiracy theory.
What if the stooges of the department of defense really want is to force China to make their own semiconductors to effectively decouple both countries industry?
Maybe they think the less demand there is in China for US semiconductor products that less pressure the semiconductor lobby will put on US lawmakers and less willing to fight export control laws US companies will be.

tokenanalyst said:

Were is Naura on the list?
I have a wild conspiracy theory.
What if the stooges of the department of defense really want is to force China to make their own semiconductors to effectively decouple both countries industry?
Maybe they think the less demand there is in China for US semiconductor products that less pressure the semiconductor lobby will put on US lawmakers and less willing to fight export control laws US companies will be.

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NAURA is in the "unverified" list, together with YMTC, they will eventually end up in the entity list in few months.

I agree US final goal is total decoupling in semiconductors, like it is in space technology.....but here it will be much more difficult for them to reach the target.

I have the impression (they give me the impression) that they are so scared to compete with China, that they prefer to not compete, split the market, I have mine you have yours, and call it a day. Very sad for such a leader like US to think like this...but here is where we are.

european_guy said:

NAURA is in the "unverified" list, together with YMTC, they will eventually end up in the entity list in few months.

I agree US final goal is total decoupling in semiconductors, like it is in space technology.....but here it will be much more difficult for them to reach the target.

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Wuxi got removed from the unverified list tho.
But again, Wuxi is like the Foxconn of biotech, probably nothing much there.

european_guy said:

NAURA is in the "unverified" list, together with YMTC, they will eventually end up in the entity list in few months.

I agree US final goal is total decoupling in semiconductors, like it is in space technology.....but here it will be much more difficult for them to reach the target.

I have the impression (they give me the impression) that they are so scared to compete with China, that they prefer to not compete, split the market, I have mine you have yours, and call it a day. Very sad for such a leader like US to think like this...but here is where we are.

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I guess, but the point of these equipment suppliers is to not rely on American technology so if they go on the Entity List, it's not a big deal.

I'm not surprised by this action by Biden because that's how it should have been interpreted what the US aims to do from the very beginning. There should be no hope that there were other avenues for China to obtained the very same equipment because that would be so naïve. No, make everything on your own. They're trying to make China think they can't do it on their own. The US outsourced it because doing everything would be too expensive for them to do it alone. China is a continent sized market. China will do it cheaper than the West can and no pro-West political restrictions means there will be more customers for China internationally where the West's costs will be even more.

They say Chinese think in moves steps ahead like Sun Tzu. Maybe that's happening and this is all a ruse but I hate it how there's this seeming cultural belief the Chinese have to express their emotions in certain ways for certain situations. I've been at Asian funerals behind the scenes and the waterworks turn on right when people walk in through the door. Some people would consider that fake but if it's cultural then it's what is expected. Sorry but when I hear Asians cry, it's like they have to give its most highest intensity as an expression of how much they personally lost. It's very ear piercing. I've seen it where the person crying didn't even like the person who died. Is this thinking applied in other areas? What I hate about the CEO of Huawei is he made a lot of public statements of how American actions against his company hurt his company. Why would he express that? Did he think he was going to get sympathy and the US would repeal sanctions? The US kidnapped his daughter and held her hostage for extortion purposes. He should be doing everything he can to beat the US not whine for sympathy. What his actions did was support further actions against him because he let them know it worked. Is this why Beijing expresses how Western actions for this or that hurts the Chinese people's feelings? Is this a ritual they have to do whether or not it's true? Are the Chinese keeping their cards close to their vest and this is all a trick to make the West comfortable in taking what's really ineffective actions? It doesn't sound like a Sun Tzu move unless it is a Sun Tzu move in itself. When it comes to choosing to look like an emotionless automaton or an emotional basket case, it's the basket case that seems to overdo it.

When the West gives China advice, it's always the bad kind. Why would they tell China how to achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency or how to be innovative when they're scared to death of it? So you know it's bad advice and meant to only to control what China does. All these alliances against China the US is creating are all about controlling its members and what they can do because the US can't control China. It maybe futile against China but the US needs it allies contrary to how they think they need no one and allies making more money from China could threaten that. Then you have people like Bill Nelson of NASA throwing it out there on cooperation with China. Why would the US want to help China unless it was all this seemingly coordinated attempt happening now in multiple areas to get China to believe cooperation is the best course. Cutting off China doesn't have the desired effect. It's because like with their allies that's how the US controls what they do. How does the US have so much power over it's allies on what they can do and who they can do business with is because that's what written in the fine print when members sign on the dotted line.

european_guy said:

NAURA is in the "unverified" list, together with YMTC, they will eventually end up in the entity list in few months.

I agree US final goal is total decoupling in semiconductors, like it is in space technology.....but here it will be much more difficult for them to reach the target.

I have the impression (they give me the impression) that they are so scared to compete with China, that they prefer to not compete, split the market, I have mine you have yours, and call it a day. Very sad for such a leader like US to think like this...but here is where we are.

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-If you want to keep a man depending on your fish stock, you take away his fishing tools.
-If you don't want that the same man eat from to your fish stock, you take away the fish but leave him the tools so he can fish on his own and leave you in peace.

This stooges approach is to take away some fishing tools so they don't be able of fishing the best fish in the lake but leaving them some tools so they can fish own their own and decouple themselves from the US fish stock.

In reality they are forcing the Chinese to innovate their fishing tools.

european_guy said:

I have the impression (they give me the impression) that they are so scared to compete with China, that they prefer to not compete, split the market, I have mine you have yours, and call it a day. Very sad for such a leader like US to think like this...but here is where we are.

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Well said.

I would be scared too. Up to now, the US has had no successful track records in stopping any Chinese industries that China is determined to advance (military, space, supercomputer, etc.). On the contrary, China's track records in successfully cracking the barriers to lead if not dominate industries after industries (telecom, internet, mobile, solar, wind, batteries, EV, etc.) are plentiful. At most, it might slow down China for a few years, at the cost of China ending up cutting dependency and creating/owning its own supply chain, immune from the US nonsense.

China is unlike all other previous US competitors (Germany, USSR, Japan), it has all the necessary ingredients to go head to head with the US in all industries: population, market, capital, talents and the industrial and scientific base. All it needs is little more time, the that time is running out for the US.

Eric Schmidt, the former Google CEO, who has authored several high-profile reports to advise the US government on US tech strategy against China, had openly admitted that to compete. David P. Goldman, the financier and investor, said more than two years ago when commenting the US semiconductor bans on Huawei (and China) they "." These are Americans who have dealt with China closely.