Chinese semiconductor industry

hvpc said:

Just because the memory guys are hit hard doesn't mean we should expect the same from foundrie.

Click to expand...

Is always been like that, for some reason memory is the first thing to go in a downturn.
Do you think this growth has been accelerated by hoarding because the sanctions.

hvpc said:

But what about inspection tools? I'm not convinced there're good domestic alternatives here. I fear this may be the area that may hinder the pace of YMTC's Fab2 expansion.

Click to expand...

I saw that they have been buying and testing metrology equipment from local players including Optical, SEM and so on, let see, only pressure makes diamonds. There is one new player that will launch a series of metrology equipment for NAND at the end of this year that could probably help them.

From what I read thus far with regards to the US sanctions there should be minimal impact of these on SMIC and YMTC operations and expansion over the next two years. I could go into more details, but I do not want to give ammunition so US policy hawks will further attack Chinese industry. The entry of Chinese semi vendors into the market is a good thing. The memory segment for example has been stagnant with the same trio for like two decades and YMTC is a breath of fresh air.

Just some education. There are a few key components for thermal CVD/ALD tools. The plasma version is more complicated.

1. showerhead. It dispenses gas phase chemicals evenly across the entire wafer in laminar flow just mm from the wafer. The entire thing is a hollow piece of a corrosion resistant metal (SS304, SS316, Al 6061) or ceramic (alumina) with tiny holes machined into it. It is one of the most expensive because of the precision machining, materials and cleaning/qualification requirements.



2. wafer heater. Heat drives the deposition reaction. It requires uniform application of heat with minimal nonuniformity across the wafer. Local increase/decrease in temperature also increase/decrease the local reaction rate, resulting in uneven deposition thickness.



3. chamber. it has to be able to resist atmospheric pressure for a large interior volume, accomodate wafer handling loadlocks, feedthroughs for electricity, handling equipment, etc. it also has to be easy to clean with harsh agents like NF3. Typically they're made from a monolithic piece of aluminum that's been hollowed out. Note: picture 2 is representative only, it is a PVD system for metal deposition, not CVD.

They didnt put Naura per se on the UVL, the put a subsidiary of Naura in the list

Beijing Naura Magnetoelectric Technology Co., Ltd.

There is another explanation for the recent sanctions: they are Biden’s outcries for a face-to-face meeting with Xi Jinping at the upcoming G-20 meeting.

vincent said:

There is another explanation for the recent sanctions: they are Biden’s outcries for a face-to-face meeting with Xi Jinping at the upcoming G-20 meeting.

Click to expand...

They seem like a way to guarantee no such meeting

vincent said:

There is another explanation for the recent sanctions: they are Biden’s outcries for a face-to-face meeting with Xi Jinping at the upcoming G-20 meeting.

Click to expand...

P O S I T I O N O F S T R E N G T H

gelgoog said:

From what I read thus far with regards to the US sanctions there should be minimal impact of these on SMIC and YMTC operations and expansion over the next two years. I could go into more details, but I do not want to give ammunition so US policy hawks will further attack Chinese industry. The entry of Chinese semi vendors into the market is a good thing. The memory segment for example has been stagnant with the same trio for like two decades and YMTC is a breath of fresh air.

Click to expand...

Pkp88 said:

For the near-term Chinese IC tech is on its backfoot / quite apparent what the weaknesses are (2 & 3). I suspect near-term Chinese tech convo's will mirror those of Chinese military hardware from 10 years ago (potential / plans but not ready to go). China's approach toward IC has been a bit haphazard / disorganized (a lot of wasted rmb in some cases), but now they kind of have to get organized no getting around it. Guess we'll see by 2030 what the space looks like.

Click to expand...

Near term (as in next year), there won't be any problems since SMIC/YMTC should've already bought the equipment it would need for the capacity that's about it come online. They are probably just testing them out. Since ASML can continue to supply machines, I think they will mostly be okay until 2025.

The big question for me is the development of EUV. Based on the roadmap, they can develop something close to TSMC N5P technology level by 2024. But if they don't have EUV option for that, then they are stuck for a few years. So, there are quite a lot of uncertainties after 2025 imo. But if they can get a fully domestic supply chain up to 5 nm by 2025, that would be quite the accomplishment.

Do you want to explain what you mean by "wasted rmb"? How do you develop a complete semi conductor industyr in a short time without throwing money at it? What China has accomplished in past 4 years is quite impressive. Don't get confused by these Western media sources who seem to have no idea how long it takes to get returns on hard tech. They are clueless.

tphuang said:

totally agree that US firms would try their hardest to not get hit by sanctions. But the reality is that even if they are able to develop equivalent tools outside of America, it would be viewed with the same suspicion by Chinese companies. And I don't blame them.

In the short term, China will continue to buy whatever tools that are available from American firms, but that will change as soon as domestic firms can scale up.

Click to expand...

I agree, in the Chinese market unfortunately their government has sunk their reputation badly unless they manufacture locally. Given everything I agree Chinese companies will go for domestic firms wherever possible, but I still see the US firms having a decent market presence, just not the near total monopoly they have now. I wouldn't be surprised as domestic firms scale if US firms end up localizing supply chain, manufacturing and other key operations similar to ARM China to retain a smaller, yet still lucrative market share or end up with a series of safe harbor countries where they move operations to serve the Chinese market.

I think the key thing is that as domestic firms increase their presence in the market segements, US firms lose the leading edge/near monopoly position they currently hold and therefore the ability of the US government to weaponize them is removed. That in a nutshell is what the US government has done. Once China has companies of comparable scale and offerings, US companies operating in the same market can still be useful as a competitive benchmark that contributes to the development of local industry similar to what Tesla and Apple provide.

AI chip company Zhenhe technology completed Pre-A fund