Chinese semiconductor industry

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Weaasel

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Question with regards to patents? If a company, person, or any entity succeeds in replicating a very similar looking, very similar components having, and functionally performing EUV lithography machine to that of ASML will ASML have the right to sue that entity for patents infringement if it tries to commercialize it?

The thing that confuses me about patents is that using either one's own imagination and understanding of the principles of science, engineering, and technology, it is possible for one entity to produce essentially almost exactly the same product that another one first produced without actually once obtaining by fair means or fouls any guidelines from the one who made the first product. Bows and arrows, stone knives, using rocks to break stones, and making of rafts were invented people of various societies without any knowledge of or passed first person to people to ever make them.
 

Weaasel

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It's my opinion, you are all giving ASML too much credit. Yes, they continue to sell tools to China, but it's not like they were giving more systems in favor of China over other countries. What they did, continue to sell to China in spite of U.S. pressure, as well as what they didn't (not selling EUV), are nothing special. It's just business, nothing more.

Commend them for not giving in to American pressure. But they are just watching out more for their own benefit than China's. If they are truly China friendly, lets see them defy the U.S. and continue to sell advanced systems + EUV to China.

The reality is, the ban of 14nm and below systems, probably mean ASML will continue to do business with China except they will be adding NXT2050 & 2100 to EUV systems as something they can't (or won't) sell to China. Even then, I don't think this will be a big impact to ASML.

At the end of the day, ASML will still get theirs. They'll come out okay, what they won't sell China, they'll just flip it to the Americans. They'll still be the 'winner' in this whole thing. I didn't blame them for not selling EUV to China & I won't give them credit for selling DUV tools to China. I'm not going to tout them as a hero for us or anything until they exhibit more favoritism to China over the U.S.
I do no believe that I am giving ASML too much credit. On the contrary, I believe that if the United States insisted that they not sell anything to China, they would cave, regardless of the total lack of rationality of the act and despite the fact that it would wreck ASML. I wouldn't put it past the United States to eventually make that ultimatum even if China and the United States are not in any military conflict with one another, either directly or through proxies. The American political elites are so fearful of China matching them technologically in all areas and so resentful of the great likelihood that China will surpass the United States as the world as the largest economy, and generally just so fearful and resentful of China's ever increasing influence in the world due to its technological and socio economic development that is leading to a truly bi-polar or multi polar world that I wouldn't put it past them to lash out in such a way. There is an incredible obsession that the American political elites have with ensuring uncontested US geopolitical dominance. Unlike Russia, China will not rise to the bait of going to war over vitally strategic locations and issues that the US provokes and pokes it for without actually being clearly capable of decisively winning.
 

european_guy

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This seems like going too far.

Although I do not disagree in principle in what you're saying, as it probably will happen.

Yes, it will happen. Why? Because current restrictions will be overcome by China in the future. When it will happen? When US administration will realize that current restrictions have been overcome.

I'm not an expert but I'd guess that localizing a supply chain of a machine is easier than for a complete and complex fab. So also this will be ineffective in the mid term, but it is important to start running now (they probably already started, of course they have much better clues than us).
 

Weaasel

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U.S. intensifies assault on China chip ambitions​

Strictest ever curbs on exports of advanced tools, AI chips and more

The U.S. has introduced sweeping export controls aimed at curbing almost every aspect of China's semiconductor development as part of its toughest crackdown yet on Beijing's tech ambitions.

The U.S. Commerce Department on Friday barred American companies from shipping certain grades of advanced chip equipment to any Chinese client without a license, effective immediately. The same curbs will apply to shipments of American-made electronics parts or other items that China could use to produce its own chipmaking tools and equipment.

Under the new rules "U.S. persons" will also be restricted from providing support to the development or production of chips at Chinese "semiconductor fabrication facilities without a license," starting Oct. 12.

The commerce department also tightened the so-called Foreign Direct Product Rule to restrict China's ability to obtain or build cutting-edge chips used in supercomputers and artificial intelligence applications. These curbs will also apply to global chipmakers, including Samsung of South Korea and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., whose manufacturing relies on American technologies.

The new rules show Washington's determination to restrict China's ability to develop cutting-edge semiconductors and computer systems that are crucial for Beijing's advanced manufacturing as well as many security, space, and defense applications.

"The PRC government is attempting to divert a lot of civilian technologies, particularly in computing, space, AI and communications, into areas of supercomputers in civil-military fusion programs as well as other areas such as surveillance that link with human rights abuses," a senior U.S. Commerce Department official said when outlining some of the reasons for the tighter rules.

They come as the U.S. is attempting to shore up its domestic semiconductor industry, including by offering generous federal and state subsidies for chipmakers.

The restrictions on chip equipment could hit Chinese memory chip champions Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) and ChangXin Memory Technologies particularly hard, as both companies are in the midst of ramping up their output.

They will also create hurdles for Chinese chipmaking equipment makers such as Naura and Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment, which are working to help Chinese chipmakers get around U.S. sanctions by building up domestic production tools to
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YMTC was one of more than 30 companies and research institutions that the U.S. on Friday placed on an "Unverified List" of clients. The list is intended as a red flag to American suppliers to be careful of doing business with those named. If these companies fail to provide documentation required by the U.S., they are likely to be officially blacklisted on Washington's so-called Entity List, alongside the likes of Huawei Technologies.

The U.S. further said on Friday that 28 entities already blacklisted will be subject to enhanced export controls under the Foreign Direct Product Rule, to restrict their ability to source from foreign suppliers using any American technologies.

Under the new rules, a license is required to ship chip equipment that can make processors and other logic chips using 14/16-nanometer technology or better. In logic chipmaking, a smaller nanometer number generally indicates a more advanced chip. The latest iPhone processors are produced with 5-nm chip tech.

For DRAM chips, the restrictions kick in for tools that are 18-nm or better, while for NAND flash memories the rules apply to machines capable of making chips with 128 or more layers.

NAND and DRAM are key types of memory components needed for all electronic devices, from smartphones and computers to servers and connected cars.

YMTC mass-produces 3D NAND flash memory chips on the 128-layer level, about one or two generations behind global leaders, and aims to put the next generation of 192-layer chips into production within a year.

American chip equipment makers such as Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA are still sorely needed if China is to quickly and smoothly ramp up chip production.

According to a Boston Consulting Group analysis, there are at least 23 types of chipmaking equipment for which American companies control more than 65% of global supply.

The new rules on advanced chipmaking tools apply only to U.S. companies and not foreign players such as ASML and Tokyo Electron. However the U.S. is working closely with "like-minded" allies to persuade them to similarly restrict exports of technology that China could use to build advanced chips used in weapons, supercomputers and surveillance applications that violate human rights, according to a senior Commerce Department official.

"We've briefed and consulted with close allies and partners on these controls, in the new obligations that they create related to chips designed with U.S. tools, software or equipment or tooling experts involving U.S. persons," the official said. "We expect all countries to comply with these measures as we do with all of our export controls."

Mark Li, a veteran semiconductor analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein, sees the American move as set to substantially slow China's chip development.

"If the ban also widens to bar U.S. citizens or people to provide support to Chinese companies, that could have a big effect too," Li said. "After all, talents and their know-hows are great assets to develop next generation chip technologies."

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Does if not behove South Korea and probably even Japan to work with China to ensure that they produce products and a supply chain of all manner of latest state of the art high tech products worth making, not just in the IC chip and semiconductors industry but also with regards to gas and jet engine turbines etc? It is extremely rational for them to have many choices as to where to get their supplies from, instead of being dependent on sources that are extremely vulnerable to US interdiction...
 

Weaasel

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American chip equipment makers such as Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA are still sorely needed if China is to quickly and smoothly ramp up chip production.
To what extent is this actually true? Are there not Japanese and European manufacturers of the same products or comparable quality as these and other American products independent on American inputs? Now, I understand that the US can actually place political pressure on them not to sell the goods that they make - free of US material and equipment content - from China, but my question is if there are European and Japanese companies that can make those goods as well? I know of Tokyo Electron for example, but what others?
 

ansy1968

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Does if not behove South Korea and probably even Japan to work with China to ensure that they produce products and a supply chain of all manner of latest state of the art high tech products worth making, not just in the IC chip and semiconductors industry but also with regards to gas and jet engine turbines etc? It is extremely rational for them to have many choices as to where to get their supplies from, instead of being dependent on sources that are extremely vulnerable to US interdiction...
That question should be asked directly and solely to the Japanese, they have the materials and equipment and IF their dream of reliving their glorious 80's and 90's era domination this is it, a huge market which they can dominate, instead they follow their hubris against the Chinese and was horrify to see a giant competitor appear before their eyes.
 

Weaasel

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To step back and take an overall philosophical view... In my view the U.S. and its allies lack the absolute capability to prevent China's rise in semiconductors. That does not mean they will not succeed. The ultimate verdict of these controls and export controls in general will depend on the actions of China's government and people. Opening up China to foreign talent, and developing domestic talent, will play one of the most important roles among many factors. The future of China is in its own hands.
You think that the principles of science and technology are magical that a country with 1/5 of the human population had to rely so heavily on foreigners to be able to replicate technological breakthroughs made by others or innovate? The main reason as to why China has been so behind in such fields as semiconductors and IC chips is because Chinese companies haven't put sufficient the effort towards supporting domestic high tech research development in such fields - until now. And that is because until now, they believed that they would be supplied with sophisticated foreign equipment without or with few restrictions because they banked on the prevalence everlastingly of market and profit making rationality on the part of the governments of countries such as the United States whose companies supplied them with consumer goods, components and capital equipment.

China is not as reliant and should not be as reliant on magical foreigners as you think or hope that it is or should be...
 

Weaasel

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Nuclear latency is a myth. To equate semiconductors is even more egregious, given the complexity.
Nuclear latency is a myth... North Korea and South Africa can make nuclear weapons, but Japan can't if it wanted to within half a decade?

As you pointed out Japan's most sophisticated commercially produced logic chips are at 40 nm nodes. Is it such a huge steps for a country that has DUV lithography machines capable of producing 14 nm chips and also has Tokyo Electron to produce non EUV equipment and actually supplies the majority of photoresists used by Samsung in the DUV and EUV equipment that Samsung purchases to produce its chips to go down to 28 nm nodes if it wanted to or needed to?
 
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