According to various reports, China bought 81 Arfi lithography machines last year. If we add another 40 in first half of this year, that's 120 in the past 18 months. Which would support 12 * 50k = 600k wafers of 28 nm per month or 300k wafers of 7 nm per month. That seems to be way beyond what China is adding this year, which makes me think they might be stocking up before a ban comes through.
I took a look at the fabs in development currently. this is basically how much money was spent in 2021. Quite a few projects ongoing
If we just focus on SMIC, the most capex of existing project is the Beijing fab (has already spent 50 billion RMB). On top of that, it has invested 18 billion RMB in the Shanghai SN1 fab. It also invested 2.4 billion RMB in the Shenzhen project and 6.1 billion RMB in the Shaoxing fab which is supposed to produce 100k wpm of 6/8 inch. The new Shaoxing seem to have gone unnoticed.
The one I had not caught on is the 70k wpm 12-inch expansion in its existing SMNC fab (JV with Beijing government)
Looks like that plant has 70k wpm so far. after the 1st stage. This second stage will seek to double that. They are mostly producing 40nm/28nm wafers in this plant.
According to this from January of this year, the new 100k wpm fab should have started installing machines in May and reach 100k wpm by 2025. Currently, SMIC Beijing and SMNC produces a total of 120k wpm of 12-inch wafers. There could be additional phases that would expand on this.
Back in the 2020 announcement, the 2 12-inch fabs in Shanghai were classified as research platform (not really sure how much production here) and 14nm and below (for the SMSC one). At the time, the 2 fabs in Beijing were said to produce 100k wpm, so production at these plants went up another 20k wpm in a year and possibly more by now.
If we were to add everything together, there are 70 + 40 + 100 + 100 + 100 = 410k wpm of 12 inch wafers in new fabs or fab expansions just by SMIC. That's a significant increase vs the probably 150k wpm of 12-inch current production.
The description here is interesting. It's listing both the SMSC and SMNC as 300 mm 先进制程晶圆厂, which means advanced process fab. I wonder if the SMNC fab that's currently expanding will also be used for N+1/N+2 node. It might make sense from the perspective that the existing plant could have more experienced engineers/workers that would be able to more quickly move forward with process that require 2/3 times as many exposures.
Based on that article, It sounds to me like they should be installing machines in the new Beijing fab and the Shenzhen fab. The Shanghai LinGang fab just started construction in 2022 and will start installing matchines in 2023. They expect to see caapcity increase in 2022 to be greater than 2021.
Now, if we go back to the first link for 12-inch semiconductor wafer projects, GalaxyCore 格科微电子 apparently has a new project for 60k wpm of 12-inch wafers for CMOS image sensor chips that is expected to finish in 2024.
Wingtech Technology鼎泰半导体 by Shanghai Dingtai Technology has a 30k wpm 12 inch auto chip that will go into production in July 2022.
芯恩 集成电路 has a project of 17k wpm of 12 inch wafers going into production last August.
积海半导体 Hangzhou Jihai semiconductor started construction in 2020/2021 for 20k wpm 12-inch wafers. and possibly 60k wpm when second phase is complete.
粤芯半导体Cansemi's second phase producing 90 to 55 nm 12-inch wafers. Adding 20k wpm in production. This went into production in Q1 2022.
荣芯半导体RongSemi planning for 20k wpm of 12-inch wafers producing CMOS semiconductor. Has yet to start production.
士兰微电子Silan Microelectronics - well known in NEV space. Will start work in Jan 2022 for a factory that produces 20k wpm of power chips.
Just looking at all this, it seems like outside of SMIC, there are maybe a couple of fabs in China that would even require DUVs. SMIC probably has more 12-inch capacity additions than everyone else combined. Outside of Huahong and CanSemi, who else would even be using ASML Arfi in China (assuming that Huawei is going exclusively with domestic product)? So, this tells me that vast majority of the 120 or so DUVs (maybe 100 of them?) are being purchased by SMIC. Assuming they buy more ASML DUVi in second half of hit year, they will have enough for advanced nodes in fab expansions in SMNC/SMSC as well as new 28 to 90 nm fabs in Beijing/Shenzhen/Shanghai.
I took a look at the fabs in development currently. this is basically how much money was spent in 2021. Quite a few projects ongoing
If we just focus on SMIC, the most capex of existing project is the Beijing fab (has already spent 50 billion RMB). On top of that, it has invested 18 billion RMB in the Shanghai SN1 fab. It also invested 2.4 billion RMB in the Shenzhen project and 6.1 billion RMB in the Shaoxing fab which is supposed to produce 100k wpm of 6/8 inch. The new Shaoxing seem to have gone unnoticed.
The one I had not caught on is the 70k wpm 12-inch expansion in its existing SMNC fab (JV with Beijing government)
Looks like that plant has 70k wpm so far. after the 1st stage. This second stage will seek to double that. They are mostly producing 40nm/28nm wafers in this plant.
According to this from January of this year, the new 100k wpm fab should have started installing machines in May and reach 100k wpm by 2025. Currently, SMIC Beijing and SMNC produces a total of 120k wpm of 12-inch wafers. There could be additional phases that would expand on this.
Back in the 2020 announcement, the 2 12-inch fabs in Shanghai were classified as research platform (not really sure how much production here) and 14nm and below (for the SMSC one). At the time, the 2 fabs in Beijing were said to produce 100k wpm, so production at these plants went up another 20k wpm in a year and possibly more by now.
If we were to add everything together, there are 70 + 40 + 100 + 100 + 100 = 410k wpm of 12 inch wafers in new fabs or fab expansions just by SMIC. That's a significant increase vs the probably 150k wpm of 12-inch current production.
The description here is interesting. It's listing both the SMSC and SMNC as 300 mm 先进制程晶圆厂, which means advanced process fab. I wonder if the SMNC fab that's currently expanding will also be used for N+1/N+2 node. It might make sense from the perspective that the existing plant could have more experienced engineers/workers that would be able to more quickly move forward with process that require 2/3 times as many exposures.
Based on that article, It sounds to me like they should be installing machines in the new Beijing fab and the Shenzhen fab. The Shanghai LinGang fab just started construction in 2022 and will start installing matchines in 2023. They expect to see caapcity increase in 2022 to be greater than 2021.
Now, if we go back to the first link for 12-inch semiconductor wafer projects, GalaxyCore 格科微电子 apparently has a new project for 60k wpm of 12-inch wafers for CMOS image sensor chips that is expected to finish in 2024.
Wingtech Technology鼎泰半导体 by Shanghai Dingtai Technology has a 30k wpm 12 inch auto chip that will go into production in July 2022.
芯恩 集成电路 has a project of 17k wpm of 12 inch wafers going into production last August.
积海半导体 Hangzhou Jihai semiconductor started construction in 2020/2021 for 20k wpm 12-inch wafers. and possibly 60k wpm when second phase is complete.
粤芯半导体Cansemi's second phase producing 90 to 55 nm 12-inch wafers. Adding 20k wpm in production. This went into production in Q1 2022.
荣芯半导体RongSemi planning for 20k wpm of 12-inch wafers producing CMOS semiconductor. Has yet to start production.
士兰微电子Silan Microelectronics - well known in NEV space. Will start work in Jan 2022 for a factory that produces 20k wpm of power chips.
Just looking at all this, it seems like outside of SMIC, there are maybe a couple of fabs in China that would even require DUVs. SMIC probably has more 12-inch capacity additions than everyone else combined. Outside of Huahong and CanSemi, who else would even be using ASML Arfi in China (assuming that Huawei is going exclusively with domestic product)? So, this tells me that vast majority of the 120 or so DUVs (maybe 100 of them?) are being purchased by SMIC. Assuming they buy more ASML DUVi in second half of hit year, they will have enough for advanced nodes in fab expansions in SMNC/SMSC as well as new 28 to 90 nm fabs in Beijing/Shenzhen/Shanghai.
we try to keep ourselves away from troubles....
