Chinese semiconductor industry

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Jianguo

Jianguo

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FairAndUnbiased said:
Damn, asking the real questions. Are you in semiconductor industry?

Synchrotron EUV source is really good for those reasons - maintenance, tunability and power.

For example 13.5 nm EUV absorbance causes photopolymerization of even ppb organics onto optical surface, which requires vacuum wafer chamber and H2 purging of optics chamber. The Sn droplet is more or less isotropic emitter so the EUV radiation is not collimated by default. and you have to have a Sn contamination management system.

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Synchrotron is clean (no vaporizing tin!!), tunable as you said and very high output.

IMO a successful synchrotron EUV source would be like the revolution from incandescent light bulb to CFL.
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I know little about the semicon industry other than what I read from articles. ;) Definitely far from expert like you and a handful of others here. I do know the basics well enough that certain things are very obvious. The first SSMB based fab in China will probably have something like 40+ beams tuned to 11.2nm using Molybdenum Beryllium Bragg mirrors. They can ramp up the power to whatever they want or need with a synchrotron, eventually even to thousands of watts source power. Even then, as you mentioned, collimated radiation is very efficient relative to LPP. This has the added bonus of requiring fewer dielectric mirrors. Even the photoresists would perform better because of reduced incidence of under or over exposure with collimated radiation as well as no issues with beam shaping. When we consider the simpler layout, simpler maintenance, greater efficiency, lower variable costs and translate that into production costs, I completely agree, it is like the revolution from incandescent to CFL. As someone else said here, it will be a BLOODBATH!

I don't think SSMB EUV will arrive anytime soon but I do believe China's first commercialized LPP EUV will be ready sometime 2025-2026. Before then, I expect China will have solved all remaining bottlenecks for DUV for packaged heterogenous 7-14nm chiplets before 2025. I'm preparing for the right moment to jump in and invest for the inevitable. This is a generational investment opportunity for all those who know what is coming. I'm thinking possible to make 20-50 times the investment. So, this is not just my hobby or curiosity. I'm looking to make bank from the incompetence and delusional mass psychosis that is ironically catapulting China ahead.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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AndrewS said:
Where did you get the figure of 81 Arfi lithography machines from?
That actually matches up with the total produced per year, and China didn't buy them all.

Also, there are reports of ASML losing $2.78 Billion in revenue from a DUV ban.
If you assume an average selling price of $70 Mn for an Arfi, that is still only 40 machines.


Sources below
archive.ph/46jDP
finance.yahoo.com/news/tech-war-broader-ban-asml-093000858.html


EDIT
Yep, 81 Arfi was the total number from ASML to all markets
archive.ph/7IZGu
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Yes, it seems like certain sources I was looking at misinterpreted that total as just for china when the original source was referring to all sales. If you just Google china asml 81 duv, you will see quite a few sites that misinterpreted the Bloomberg article. European guy also posted his asml data a page before my post.

Also, it takes a long time to do research on some of these pieces I put together. Be a little more respectful and do a little googling and read a couple of pages of this threads before these posts before demanding to know the sources. It's extremely discouraging for someone like myself who spent long time looking up sources and translating them.
 
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ansy1968

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tphuang said:
Yes, it seems like certain sources I was looking at misinterpreted that total as just for china when the original source was referring to all sales. If you just Google china asml 81 duv, you will see quite a few sites that misinterpreted the Bloomberg article. European guy also posted his asml data a page before my post.

Also, it takes a long time to do research on some of these pieces I put together. Be a little more respectful and do a little googling and read a couple of pages of this threads before these posts before demanding to know the sources. It's extremely discouraging for someone like myself who spent long time looking up sources and translating them.
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Sir is this your YT channel? From @Oldschool old post he said 80 units last year and in the first quarter of this year 23 units were delivered, so I think they will able to match last year delivery for 2022.

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ansy1968

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A follow up from my previous post, ASML will be focusing on future development and iteration of its best selling DUVL, as Major FABS is facing difficulties in the current economic uncertainties, TSMC is one of them as reports provided by our esteem member @Oldschool and I think IF the US Federal reserve do increase interest rate to tame inflation that will tank the US economy, they may forgo their expansion plan including in the US as the American subsidies are to small to make a difference.

With only 3 FABS Makers that can afford their expensive EUVL, they need to act fast cause within 3 years, they will face serious competition from SMEE and CETC in both DUVL (as they ramp up production) and EUVL ( as the expected introduction date arrive)

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www.taipeitimes.com

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TSMC shut down 4 of its EUV due to falling demand from clients.
 
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european_guy

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european_guy said:

Official ASML financial report for first half of 2022​

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For better clarification, I directly post the tables of sold units worldwide. There is not a split of units by region, so we can only assume the number of units delivered to China using the "revenues by region" table provided in the reports.

I add also official numbers of 2021, took from here at page 187:

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First half 2022
EUV15
ArFi39
ArF dry14
KrF64
I-line21

Full year 2021
EUV42
ArFi81
ArF dry22
KrF131
I-line33
 
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antiterror13

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european_guy said:
For better clarification, I directly post the tables of sold units worldwide. There is not a split of units by region, so we can only assume the number of units delivered to China using the "revenues by region" table provided in the reports.

I add also official numbers of 2021, took from here at page 187:

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First half 2022
EUV15
ArFi39
ArF dry14
KrF64
I-line21

Full year 2021
EUV42
ArFi81
ArF dry22
KrF131
I-line33
Click to expand...

Quite big drop of the sales of EUV in 2022 compare to 2021, why is that ?
 
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