Chinese semiconductor industry

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european_guy

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Overbom said:
That's not how it works. Its like saying a new phone manufacturer entering the business would have to start with iPhone 1 equivelant before going to iPhone 2, 3, 4 .... etc.

Definitely not. Yes, ASML will be more advanced but not on the basis of what you wrote
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Yes, of course.

Who follows has always the advantage that someone else has "broken new ground" before him, so a lot of research can be speedup and a lot of failures and dead ends can be avoided. This is a general concept in industry: leaders and followers have both advantages and disadvantages, independently from who is the leader and who is the follower.

So I really didn't mean that China would need 15 years to close the gap. Just that SMEE probably will enter EUV at least 15 years after ASML.

How much it will take to close the gap? I really don't know, nobody knows.

My guess is that if SMEE shows a localized EUV machine before 2025, then it would be a very big surprise to me, if it shows it before 2030 it will be a huge success, but not a big surprise for me, because I know Chinese determination.

The 15 years time is actually what ASML CEO foresees: "In 15 years' time they'll be able to do it all by themselves"

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His opinion is of course much more valuable than mine, and he knows much better than me, and than most of the people, what he is talking about...but if you read carefully, you will see that when he says 15 years, in his view this is a relatively short time, and he is very worried that China will close the gap too soon. I see he has huge respect for China's ambitions, for him 15 years to reach "tech sovereignty" has he called it, is a relatively short time.
 
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european_guy

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Sincho said:
The archived copy of the article that has already been posted
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Thanks!

This article completely misses the current huge Chinese localization effort. It seems an article written 2/3 years ago. Nowadays reality is already completely different. The time window where US could block its firms and get some result is already closed, now we are at the tail of the time window were blocking US and Japan manufacturers could still have an effect. In 2 years time, before 2024 US election, also this will not be enough and it will just be an obsolete idea.

The best US can achieve is to keep China out of the state-of-the-art advanced IC, by blocking ASML, but now cannot do much more than that, and even less in the future.
 
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tokenanalyst

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european_guy said:
My guess is that if SMEE shows a localized EUV machine before 2025, then it would be a very big surprise to me, if it shows it before 2030 it will be a huge success, but not a big surprise for me, because I know Chinese determination.
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I have a feeling that SMEE could not be the ones integrating EUVL in China. If Tsinghua is successful in their SSMB project they will be ones who will want to capitalize it by creating their own shell companies. If the CAS LPP project is successful is possible they also create their own shell companies to capitalize it.
I don't know, maybe SMEE could still be the to go integrator, but for a company of the size of SMEE it looks like they have their hands full with what they have right now with the immersion lithography project, the advanced 2.5D/3D packaging project and other advance tools that they are developing.
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tokenanalyst

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Nice vintage stuff from the Shanghai Radio Museum:

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Note: An ore in a glass tube constitutes an ore detector, photographed by Dai Hui at the Shanghai Radio Museum

Maybe some pyrite rectifiers to make crystal radios in rural China.

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50s Vacuum tubes.
Note: Electronic tubes made in China, photographed by Dai Hui in Shanghai Radio Museum

On March 1, 1951, the Nanjing Electric Power Plant, the first professional electronic tube factory in New China, was built, with Shan Zongsu as the factory director and chief engineer. In 1952, the factory successfully developed the first set of five-lamp radio tubes, ending the history of my country's dependence on imports of radio tubes. In 1953, the factory was named Nanjing Electronic Tube Factory (772 Factory).

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In August 1958, the Shanghai Institute of Radio Technology successfully trial-produced the first germanium diode and germanium triode made in Shanghai.
Shanghai Radio Equipment Factory used these batches of domestic germanium transistors to assemble 300 sets of Mido brand 872 (one said ST2)-1-1 portable 7-tube mid-band superheterodyne radios and put them on the market on the eve of the 10th anniversary of the National Day in 1959. Commercialization of domestic transistor radios for the first time. After the birth of semiconductor radio, China began to use printed circuit boards, which were printed by dipping method, and the surface was coated with epoxy resin to ensure circuit insulation from the process. This is an older generation of circuit board manufacturing processes.​

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Some vintage transistor radios.

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ansy1968

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tokenanalyst said:
I have a feeling that SMEE could not be the ones integrating EUVL in China. If Tsinghua is successful in their SSMB project they will be ones who will want to capitalize it by creating their own shell companies. If the CAS LPP project is successful is possible they also create their own shell companies to capitalize it.
I don't know, maybe SMEE could still be the to go integrator, but for a company of the size of SMEE it looks like they have their hands full with what they have right now with the immersion lithography project, the advanced 2.5D/3D packaging project and other advance tools that they are developing.
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@tokenanalyst CETC?
 
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tokenanalyst

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ansy1968 said:
@tokenanalyst CETC?
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I'm just speculating so take what I say with truckload of salt but Tsinghua has a tradition of creating their own shell companies for their tech like Hwatsing and U-Precision. It makes sense to me that if Tsinghua is successful in developing SSMB EUVL they will try to profit financially from it, of course they will still need reflective optics, mechatronics and other technologies that are currently being developed by CAS institutes who will also develop their own companies.

Also, in my opinion, I think the nature of the SSMB project could create a steep learning curve for SMEE, which has never faced anything of this nature. Therefore, Tsinghua, who already has the experience may be forced to assemble everything by themselves to better optimize and reduce development time.
I think about it dry lithography is not that far from immersion lithography, much more complicated, but not that far, but EUV is a different beast and if SSMB succeeds it will be a whole new monster.​
 
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ansy1968

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tokenanalyst said:
I'm just speculating so take what I say with truckload of salt but Tsinghua has a tradition of creating their own shell companies for their tech like Hwatsing and U-Precision. It makes sense to me that if Tsinghua is successful in developing SSMB EUVL they will try to profit financially from it, of course they will still need reflective optics, mechatronics and other technologies that are currently being developed by CAS institutes who will also develop their own companies.

Also, in my opinion, I think the nature of the SSMB project could create a steep learning curve for SMEE, which has never faced anything of this nature. Therefore, Tsinghua, who already has the experience may be forced to assemble everything by themselves to better optimize and reduce development time.
I think about it dry lithography is not that far from immersion lithography, much more complicated, but not that far, but EUV is a different beast and if SSMB succeeds it will be a whole new monster.​
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@tokenanalyst bro a follow on question, IF SSRF is being used as research tool for Optics/Lens and materials, then maybe CAS and other corporate tech entity is waiting for IHEPS project to finish and produce chip immediately? I mean can SSRF produce the same performance result like that of IHEPS?
 
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