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Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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@gelgoog bro how much Cymer cost per unit of ASML EUVL, 30%? so lets presume it is then that is a cool $60 million per set. IF a SSMB can power a conservative estimate of 12 units then it is a gamer changer. A SSMB costing $170 million divided by 12 units equals $14 million per unit. The only disadvantage is that you can't export it.The SSMB is just the light source. So you can't assume the cost difference will be like that.
@henrik bro the only American component is CYMER the light source, IF China has introduce its owned EUVL, ASML can use the excuse to sell its NXT 3400C machine powered by Gigaphoton LPP. We have to wait IF that will happen BUT it is ASML only recourse. And for me the Chinese should reciprocate and help ASML source its component locally, a friendly competition is needed to enhance the Chinese IC, with ASML, SMEE, CETC and Nikon battling it out.The yankees will not allow ASML selling EUV to China. So ASML will lose business in China. China will then saturate the market with Chinese EUV machines.
Bro from @WTAN conversation with @ZeEa5KPul, his conservative estimate is 90 lines. While a NXT 3400C is an EUVL set with a 250W CYMER LPP as its light source.If the SSMB can power a hundred EUVL, the production lines will have to spread over a very large area, that means the fabs will have to occupy a big piece of land area? If SSMB can power a hundred EUVL, how many can NXT 3400C power?
WTAN
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Registered MemberThe Chart showing the timeline for the construction of the Synchrotron dates back to 2019. Things have changed since then and i believe the whole project has been accelerated with many articles claiming that up to 70% of certain equipment has already been installed.ZeEa5KPul said:
HEPS is scheduled to be completed at the end of 2025; I don't see how it can be used to test SSMB in the near term
The Institute of High Energy Physics (IHEP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) is a comprehensive research base for particle and astroparticle physics, accelerator physics and technology, radiation technologies and applications, as well as for nuclear analytical techniques and...
english.ihep.cas.cn
Could you be a little more specific on what's required? The schedule shows some components being installed in 2022, but the earliest commissioning happens in 2023. Furthermore, HEPS is a scientific instrument, it won't be used industrially for EUV lithography. HEPS might certainly be used to validate and test the SSMB phenomenon, and even to develop candidate EUV optics, but it won't be used to make chips. A dedicated synchrotron will have to be built, which I believe is what the Tsinghua project is. I believe that's what we should be keeping our eye on - it seems a much simpler device for the specific EUVL purpose, not a much more complex general-purpose experimental device.
This lends weight to my initial thoughts that SSMB is more for the 2030 timeframe (perhaps a bit earlier, 2027+ if things go well). Near term (around 2024-2025), I believe LPP is a more viable candidate. I believe China will at least have one generation of LPP EUV before it transitions to synchrotron light sources.
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The HEP Synchrotron will certainly be used for SSMB Light Source Research as other Synchrotrons in China do not have the capability or are too old.
The Chinese Academy of Sciences developed a specially made Laser to be used to manipulate electron bunches and shipped it Germany to be used at the PTB's Synchrotron also known as the Metrology Light Source which operates in Low Alpha Mode.
The CAS would certainly use this same laser at the HEP Synchrotron in Beijing for SSMB R&D.
This is why the first Prototype of the SSMB Light Source would be developed at the HEPS Synchrotron.
The Synchrotron would have 90 Beam Lines which could be leased out to interested parties for use.
Ultimately where they decide to develop the first dedicated SSMB Light Souce Facility remains unknown and depends on funding from companies like Huawei etc.
With LPP EUVL, there remains issues like boosting the Power of the CO2 Laser and also Patent issues with ASML.
China is certainly working on a LPP EUVL and i agree that there is a good chance it will come out in 2025.
ASML is having supply chain issues. They are shipping EUV units to customers with some parts missing. That means (1) they don't work and (2) they aren't getting paid. When supply catches up they will finish the system at the customer. You can read my analysis here:
The yankees will not allow ASML selling EUV to China. So ASML will lose business in China. China will then saturate the market with Chinese EUV machines.
Yes, it's not an ASML choice not to sell in China.
Actually I read some time ago (unfortunately I don't find the link) that ASML and SMEE were mulling a kind of JV in China some years ago, where SMEE would have built the ASML's entry/mid level range machines. That would have been a big help for SMEE. At the end for some reason the deal did not materialize.
Finally, just to make it clear the huge work that has been done already (and that SMEE is still very far from even to begin), the below list shows the various generations of EUV machines:
TWINSCAN NXE:3100 (first prototype, shipped in 2010!!!!)
TWINSCAN NXE:3300 in 2013
TWINSCAN NXE:3350 in 2015
TWINSCAN NXE:3400 in 2016 (first production-ready machine) 6 years after prototype!!!
TWINSCAN NXE:3400B
TWINSCAN NXE:3400C
TWINSCAN NXE:3600D (7th generation, now in production)
TWINSCAN EXE:5200 (High NA machine, expected in 2024-2025)
If SMEE will be able to build the first EUV prototype even in 2025 (ultra very optimistic and mostly unrealistic expectation), it will be anyhow 15 years after ASML.
A newbie question What is a Spectrum Chip? Tsinghua University seems to have a breakthrough and I want to know the usage of such chip?
At present, research in the field of chips has become a key scientific research task for many enterprises, universities and scientific research institutions. In recent years, in the field of high-end technology, with unremitting enthusiasm, many high-end technology ice has been melted. So Tsinghua University started from the field of spectroscopy technology and successfully developed a new technology for chips. Today, Tsinghua University has made new contributions to the spectrum chip. So, what is the significance of Tsinghua University's ice breaking for China? In the days to come, is it possible for China to develop further in the field of spectral chips?
At present, research in the field of chips has become a key scientific research task for many enterprises, universities and scientific research institutions. In recent years, in the field of high-end technology, with unremitting enthusiasm, many high-end technology ice has been melted. So Tsinghua University started from the field of spectroscopy technology and successfully developed a new technology for chips. Today, Tsinghua University has made new contributions to the spectrum chip. So, what is the significance of Tsinghua University's ice breaking for China? In the days to come, is it possible for China to develop further in the field of spectral chips?
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As long they have the monopoly on EUV tools they will not price themselves out the market, is like big pharma in the U.S. they can charge outrageous prices for their drugs because they have little competition.bro I'm wondering with the restriction impose on China regarding EUVL and only 3 FAB are buying their High NA EUVL, will they price themselves out of the market?
If Tsinghua manage to deliver that SSMB project it could definitely change the IC manufacturing landscape, SSMB is designed so one ring could power multiple litho tools at the same time, instead of having a single light source per tool. If the technology succeed and becomes popular it could hurt Cymer and Gigaphoton, I guess ASML could still sell cheaper tools adapted to this kind of light sources.IF the Chinese delivered their much anticipated EUVL with game changing SSMB will that make ASML High NA EUVL a vanity project?
NA EUV?Each factory will need multiple EUV lithography machines. And the lower the production rate of EUV the more lithography machines you will need to reach the same wafer production.
I hope China doesn't just have an EUV program, but also working on high NA EUV, and whatever is next after that. Only way to beat these competitors is to act like that. Not just continue chasing their tail.
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