Chinese semiconductor industry

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european_guy

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It seems ASML strategy is to produce and push to the market as many EUV units as possible.

This is not only revenue related, but IMO is also a long term strategy to saturate the market and create the biggest possible technological gap with Chinese manufacturers (and to a lesser extent with Nikon).

ASML has now a time window of about 5-7 years to widen the gap in EUV and is going for it at full speed. I'd guess it makes totally sense. And this is what fair and healthy competition should be.

For SMEE has never been easy....it will be even harder in the future.

...and BTW regarding fair competition, I think that banning ASML EUV in China is a disadvantage for ASML and a big gift for SMEE.
 
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gelgoog

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Each factory will need multiple EUV lithography machines. And the lower the production rate of EUV the more lithography machines you will need to reach the same wafer production.

I hope China doesn't just have an EUV program, but also working on high NA EUV, and whatever is next after that. Only way to beat these competitors is to act like that. Not just continue chasing their tail.
 

ansy1968

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@gelgoog @european_guy @hvpc and @antiterror13 thanks for replying my stupid question, the reason I ask is that TSMC had abandon its plan of having a FAB in Europe, the Japanese FAB may use Japanese equipment and the Arizona FAB may not be that massive as reported. With reports TSMC have finished its 2nm chip development and slated for production in 2024 using NXT 3400C, where will ASML High NA EUVL fit in? as report that it will be introduce in 2025? the same projected year with China EUVL SSMB? with ASML reported target of 70 EUVL by 2025, who will buy them as the 3 FABS had already invested a lot on legacy EUVL. My point is the Chinese EUVL may surprise us and become a price disruptor as ASML had already committed to increase production hoping that the chip boom will continue.

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3 days ago — TSMC, the largest foundry in the world and one of the leading chipmakers, has been both expanding its current fabs and has pledged to invest in ...

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Jun 3, 2021 — The first phase of the Arizona fab would have an installed capacity of 20,000 wafers a month, TSMC said. In January, the chipmaker said that ...

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Mar 4, 2021 — Based on TSMC's classification, a MegaFab has capacity of around 25,000 WSPM, so its planned facility in Arizona can already be called a ...

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5 days ago — According to a report from the Taiwanese publication United Daily News (UDN), TSMC is allegedly looking to spend NT$ 1 trillion in order to ...

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Apr 25, 2022 — At its Investor Day in September 2021, ASML said the capacity ramp is expected to deliver an output capability of over 70 EUV 0.33NA systems and ...
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
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It seems ASML strategy is to produce and push to the market as many EUV units as possible.

This is not only revenue related, but IMO is also a long term strategy to saturate the market and create the biggest possible technological gap with Chinese manufacturers (and to a lesser extent with Nikon).

ASML has now a time window of about 5-7 years to widen the gap in EUV and is going for it at full speed. I'd guess it makes totally sense. And this is what fair and healthy competition should be.

For SMEE has never been easy....it will be even harder in the future.

...and BTW regarding fair competition, I think that banning ASML EUV in China is a disadvantage for ASML and a big gift for SMEE.
@european_guy and IF SMEE do deliver an EUVL, will ASML change track and aside from selling EUVL may set up a subsidiary making use of local equipment to please both the US and China?
 

ansy1968

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Each factory will need multiple EUV lithography machines. And the lower the production rate of EUV the more lithography machines you will need to reach the same wafer production.

I hope China doesn't just have an EUV program, but also working on high NA EUV, and whatever is next after that. Only way to beat these competitors is to act like that. Not just continue chasing their tail.
@gelgoog and bro I want to know if an EUVL powered by SSMB can match that of ASML High NA EUVL or more superior? And saturate the market strategy of ASML is all talk, IF they're serious they may have done so with its DUVL , to flood the market before SMEE SSA800 mass introduction.
 

gelgoog

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Also if Japan made their own EUV machine the US would find a way to coerce them into not selling it to China.
Right now the Japanese aren't even selling mining and construction equipment like dump trucks or escavators to Russia with the sanctions.
And the Japanese were part of the US COCOM sanctions regime in the Cold War.

Europe and Japan have no scale to have modern fabs. There is simply not enough demand from their own chip design industry to fill those fabs.

The EUV machines will be getting sold to the DRAM manufacturers and some of the logic manufacturers. So Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Intel, Nanya, TSMC. Not necessarily in that order.
 

henrik

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@tokenanalyst bro I'm wondering with the restriction impose on China regarding EUVL and only 3 FAB are buying their High NA EUVL, will they price themselves out of the market? especially that TSMC 2nm development is based on legacy EUVL? IF the Chinese delivered their much anticipated EUVL with game changing SSMB will that make ASML High NA EUVL a vanity project? I mean the cost of a SSMB is $170 million and that can power multiple EUVL (theoretically offer a hundred ) while that of NXT 3400C is $200 million what more of High NA EUVL which cost double at $400 million plus? with projected production of 70 units of NXT 3400C per year, I think there is not enough customers to buy those machine as I see a glut in the market by next year as China ramp up production.
If the SSMB can power a hundred EUVL, the production lines will have to spread over a very large area, that means the fabs will have to occupy a big piece of land area? If SSMB can power a hundred EUVL, how many can NXT 3400C power?
 
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