Chinese semiconductor industry

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tokenanalyst

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2025 for a prototype is possible. that would have to be the case to build it up to be at the current asml EUV production systems. it took asml more decade to go from shipping prototype to the latest production system.
They are definitely not starting from zero, they have access to faster supercomputers to optimize their designs and lot of knowledge of what works is already in the public domain, it could cut some time of development.

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tphuang

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What you said is fair from your perspective.

But could I ask if you don’t understand what it takes to build a machine and how to implement it into production, why are you so sure of the optimistic expectations you set?
because I've seen China do similar things in areas I do follow. You know, this is a military forum. it's an area of very advanced technology where China had minimal access to anything. So if they can make the kind of progress there that we've seen, I have no doubt they will be able to do similar things in semiconductor now that they've made it a national priority and where they have not been shut off from Western technology.
How many people in China really know how to implement a system for advanced nodes? Why do you think Chinese fabs are paying 3x 4x salary to lure those with experience to help build up Chinese fab capability?
How many people in China knew how to build a 5th generation aircraft and they built it right? Since they can lure engineers from Taiwan and other places, that's already an advantage over what they could in the military industrial complex.

Having access to the most advanced equipments is not even a guarantee to acquire capability to make advanced chips.

So while you trivialize the complexity behind semiconductor manufacturing, excuse me for being realistic and recognizing the hurdles we need to go through. It’s like you have the CEO perspective…go do so and so by the end of the week…but it’s technical guys that have to do the actual work that really know if it could be done by the random target date you throw around.

You do you. Be optimistic. But, do dig a bit deeper and recognize the challenges and reassess your view a bit.
I also have a friend in Taiwan in the semiconductor industry. Maybe not as experienced as yourself, but also in the industry. Let's just say he does not hold the view you have. Maybe they won't beat the industry expectations, but I think it's more likely for them to do so.
 

hvpc

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because I've seen China do similar things in areas I do follow. You know, this is a military forum. it's an area of very advanced technology where China had minimal access to anything. So if they can make the kind of progress there that we've seen, I have no doubt they will be able to do similar things in semiconductor now that they've made it a national priority and where they have not been shut off from Western technology.

How many people in China knew how to build a 5th generation aircraft and they built it right? Since they can lure engineers from Taiwan and other places, that's already an advantage over what they could in the military industrial complex.


I also have a friend in Taiwan in the semiconductor industry. Maybe not as experienced as yourself, but also in the industry. Let's just say he does not hold the view you have. Maybe they won't beat the industry expectations, but I think it's more likely for them to do so.
That is why i think advanced packaging will be a big driver i the post Moore era.

You don’t need to speculate on this. This is already confirmed as the path forward. Advanced packaging is not part of 3nm, but will be used as early as the next node


So your belief is based on faith. I respect that.

I commend you for your conviction in your belief.

I’d like to think I’m a romantic like you, but as you can see I think I’m more of a realist. Some may even accuse me of being a pessimist.

But, to each his own. It’s okay to have different opinions and still have a peaceful discussion.

P.S. thank you for being civil in sharing our views with one another. I really appreciate it. [Thumbsup] [thankyou]
 

hvpc

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That is why i think advanced packaging will be a big driver i the post Moore era.

No need to speculate here. You are thinking is right! This is a sure thing now.

it’ll come as soon as 2024 on Intel 20A or tsmc 2nm. These are already being communicated. We, the WFE suppliers are already planning with that in building our product development roadmaps.
 

tphuang

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That is why i think advanced packaging will be a big driver i the post Moore era.

You don’t need to speculate on this. This is already confirmed as the path forward. Advanced packaging is not part of 3nm, but will be used as early as the next node


So your belief is based on faith. I respect that.

I commend you for your conviction in your belief.

I’d like to think I’m a romantic like you, but as you can see I think I’m more of a realist. Some may even accuse me of being a pessimist.

But, to each his own. It’s okay to have different opinions and still have a peaceful discussion.

P.S. thank you for being civil in sharing our views with one another. I really appreciate it. [Thumbsup] [thankyou]

Right, calling me stupid (and a romantic) and saying that you are the realist. We are all dumb, but you know much and you are smarter. Awesome.

I still don't understand why someone who is in their 50s with 30 years experience in the industry wasting his time here being condescending to illogical, faith based amateurs like myself?
 

hvpc

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Right, calling me stupid (and a romantic) and saying that you are the realist. We are all dumb, but you know much and you are smarter. Awesome.

I still don't understand why someone who is in their 50s with 30 years experience in the industry wasting his time here being condescending to illogical, faith based amateurs like myself?

Wow. This your response after I thanked you for being civil??

[Long SIGH]
 

ansy1968

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SMIC is not afraid of US sanction? Brave word indeed and take it with a huge grain of salt, BUT from hints here and there we are hearing positive news about overall Chinese IC progress and in this video clip 7:12 it even verify that a new domestic DUVL had been certified;)
SMIC had a 2 prong approach strategy as mentioned by our esteem member @weig2000, by using ASML DUVL to sharpen its Core Competency in 7nm development and gradually indigenized their 28nm and 14nm line. So IF Sanction does arrive they will not be hamstrung (28nm and 14nm revenue share had reached 18%), the Video also indicate the localization of raw materials use and even the EDA software. So yes SMIC under Liang Mong Song had successfully completed its 7nm project and yes it will be mass produce as SMEE SSA800 had entered mass service with more improve variants. This DUVL is the savior of Chinese IC and it will hold the line until 2025 when the expected Chinese EUVL will enter service.

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tokenanalyst

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VeriSilicon: It is expected that the lack of cores will gradually ease, and many projects of the company will enter mass production and continue to contribute to revenue​


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According to Weibo news, recently, VeriSilicon released the institutional investor survey minutes to disclose that in the current environment of global production capacity constraints, it is difficult for many companies to obtain the same production capacity as the previous year, but VeriSilicon will mass production in 2021. The business still achieved good results. The guarantee of production capacity is mainly due to VeriSilicon's fab neutrality strategy and good supply chain management mechanism; the company adheres to the fab neutrality principle, and maintains close contact and long-term cooperation with various fabs.

VeriSilicon stated that the tight production capacity of wafer fabs in the industry will indeed have a certain impact on the company, but the company has already responded actively. Reduce the risk caused by production capacity and meet the needs of customers for normal chip production. If there is no major natural disasters and other factors, the gradual release of some new production capacity and the phenomenon of panic hoarding have been greatly improved. It is expected that the shortage of cores will be gradually alleviated in the future. The production business will continue to grow.

In terms of IP with high industry attention, VeriSilicon's Image Signal Processor IP (ISPIP) obtained the ISO26262 certification of the automotive functional safety standard last year. Passing this certification will accelerate the company's strategic layout in the field of electric vehicles and smart vehicles. In the field of smart cars, VeriSilicon has a layout ranging from smart cockpits to autonomous driving technologies. VeriSilicon's graphics processor IP (GPUIP) has been widely used in automobiles, including infotainment systems, instrument clusters, body surround view, driver status monitoring systems, ADAS, autonomous vehicles, etc. At present, many world-renowned automotive OEM manufacturers have adopted VeriSilicon's GPU for in-vehicle infotainment systems or dashboards; VeriSilicon's neural network processor IP has also been used by many customers for their ADAS products. Other IPs are also in the process of gradually carrying out vehicle certification.

In terms of a unified Chiplet ecosystem, VeriSilicon said that the company has a wealth of processor IP and leading chip design capabilities, and we have established long-term cooperative relationships with mainstream packaging and testing manufacturers and chip manufacturers around the world, so it is very important It is suitable for launching Chiplet business; we have been working on the advancement of Chiplet technology and industry in recent years. Through "IP chipization, IPasaChiplet" and "chip platformization, ChipletasaPlatform", we not only promote the industrialization of Chiplet, but also integrate VeriSilicon's IP The licensing business and the one-stop chip customization service business have reached a new height.

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ansy1968

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@tokenanalyst bro another YT video stating the 5 Chinese Semis company sanction under the US Tentative Delisting list.
One of them is Shangmei Semiconductor leader in cleaning equipment in China and have already introduced to the market the 28nm process, plus advancing to 14nm this year. From his video he explain the US strategy of hampering the Chinese effort and every successful Chinese enterprise will be targeted. (next in line will be YMTC)

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20K views6 days ago

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Quickie

Colonel
People underestimate how fast 10 year pass, all this mess started in 2014 because U.S felled insecure in the 5G space because didn't have a champion in that arena with the big three being Ericsson, Nokia and Huawei, two Europeans and one Chinese. Article after article by "national security experts" about the need to undermine Chinese companies prompted U.S hawks to attack Huawei, what that did was to open the eyes of many Chinese that their semiconductor supply chain was really insecure. Then when Huawei started to find alternative parts to U.S suppliers and make their own, the U.S used the nuclear option: foreign direct product rule, that REALLY make U.S. technology toxic for the Chinese and localization of Software, parts, equipment and subsystems become more urgent.
Before that the biggest lover of U.S. semiconductor technology where the Chinese themselves, Huawei bought as much chips from Qualcomm as from Hisilicon. The reason why SMEE scanners didn't gain traction in China is because SMIC and other where not willing to collaborate with them help them to make their scanner better preferring to give ASML a monopoly, EUV as make in collaboration between Intel, TSMC and ASML. Why SMEE is going to invest time and money in Area were they are alone? Their money is better off investing in areas were they are making money. The same is story is been with other equipment manufacturers. But U.S. sanctions has make the need for localization really really really urgent in China, even for pro-U.S. companies like SMIC that who are now feeling the wrath of U.S sanctions.
Companies are becoming nervous about the possibility of losing a big market and they are lobbying the hell out of U.S politicians to avoid that, the problem is that U.S. hawks are ideologues,they do not understand the dynamics of the industry and they had a lot of power. They think that the best way to win the race is to shoot themselves in the foot so when they fall that will provoke that the runner that is behind will fall too. And the irony is the if China become proficient making their own SME, the U.S will lose their biggest asset in China: Transparency.
So Export controls in semiconductors has always been adjusted according to China potential capabilities, if that wasn't the case the best scanner they would be allowed to import would be a ArF dry one, hear me now quote me later at the moment that the Chinese have a working prototype of an EUV scanner ASML will lobby to oblivion to ship theirs to China.
That why i say 2025 even if that sound overoptimistic for a prototype, doesn't have to be a production ready EUV scanner. They already had a lot of hardware and knowledge.

So Export controls in semiconductors has always been adjusted according to China potential capabilities, if that wasn't the case the best scanner they would be allowed to import would be a ArF dry one, hear me now quote me later at the moment that the Chinese have a working prototype of an EUV scanner ASML will lobby to oblivion to ship theirs to China.

Just a while ago the news was that ASML was cutting the price of their immersion ArF. ASML wouldn't have had to do that if they have not seen something coming up.

Edit: On second thought, it may not be immersion type but they did cut prices.
 
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