People underestimate how fast 10 year pass, all this mess started in 2014 because U.S felled insecure in the 5G space because didn't have a champion in that arena with the big three being Ericsson, Nokia and Huawei, two Europeans and one Chinese. Article after article by "national security experts" about the need to undermine Chinese companies prompted U.S hawks to attack Huawei, what that did was to open the eyes of many Chinese that their semiconductor supply chain was really insecure. Then when Huawei started to find alternative parts to U.S suppliers and make their own, the U.S used the nuclear option: foreign direct product rule, that REALLY make U.S. technology toxic for the Chinese and localization of Software, parts, equipment and subsystems become more urgent.
Before that the biggest lover of U.S. semiconductor technology where the Chinese themselves, Huawei bought as much chips from Qualcomm as from Hisilicon. The reason why SMEE scanners didn't gain traction in China is because SMIC and other where not willing to collaborate with them help them to make their scanner better preferring to give ASML a monopoly, EUV as make in collaboration between Intel, TSMC and ASML. Why SMEE is going to invest time and money in Area were they are alone? Their money is better off investing in areas were they are making money. The same is story is been with other equipment manufacturers. But U.S. sanctions has make the need for localization really really really urgent in China, even for pro-U.S. companies like SMIC that who are now feeling the wrath of U.S sanctions.
Companies are becoming nervous about the possibility of losing a big market and they are lobbying the hell out of U.S politicians to avoid that, the problem is that U.S. hawks are ideologues,they do not understand the dynamics of the industry and they had a lot of power. They think that the best way to win the race is to shoot themselves in the foot so when they fall that will provoke that the runner that is behind will fall too. And the irony is the if China become proficient making their own SME, the U.S will lose their biggest asset in China: Transparency.
So Export controls in semiconductors has always been adjusted according to China potential capabilities, if that wasn't the case the best scanner they would be allowed to import would be a ArF dry one, hear me now quote me later at the moment that the Chinese have a working prototype of an EUV scanner ASML will lobby to oblivion to ship theirs to China.
That why i say 2025 even if that sound overoptimistic for a prototype, doesn't have to be a production ready EUV scanner. They already had a lot of hardware and knowledge.