Chinese semiconductor industry

wxw456 said:

It is a very real risk. There is talk of using existing sanctions to ban DUV machines from SMIC in the US. You also have to remember that even if SMIC is buys a DUV from ASML it is likely to be reported to a government agency in the US.

The real big change is that news from SMIC has shifted from 14nm, N+1 and N+2 to 28nm. If SMIC was truly confident in the supply of DUV machines from ASML, then it would also be engaged in major expansion of its manufacturing capacity at the 14nm node.


My point was it is relatively simple for the average person to own shares of major semiconductor manufacturers. In fact just buying common market index ETFs would likely mean you are indirectly invested in a semiconductor manufacturing company.


Many here are skeptical. That is why the next milestone is still mass production at 14nm despite many of the people here talking about EUV machines (it's just more interesting to talk about EUVL development). The point being made is that all evidence points to 28nm as essentially a done deal at this point. The question is not if SMEE has a DUV machine, but how capable the DUV machine from SMEE is right now. There is still a large gap between manufacturing 28nm and 7nm using a DUV machine.

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hvpc said:

my friends in SMIC and YMTC are not aware of them taking shipment of SMEE immersion system. are you certain these immersion machine has already shipped from SMEE?

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hvpc said:

You seemed to have done your research and are have solid conviction. Nice!

sorry, another question…Do you expect SMEE to be able to deliver a production worthy tool on their first try? why or why not?
Also could you share your opinion on what performance metric would be SMEE’s biggest challenge to build a production immersion system? Just curious what your opinion on this is.

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tphuang said:

I think hvpc has actually gotten a warmer reception here than I would've expected. I mean tinrobert comes here and post stuff in general without being condescending and share his knowledge and people give him a hard time. It wouldn't surprise me if hvpc works in semiconductor industry, but I wonder why a 50+ year old person with 30 years of experience would come on a military forum to spout off his knowledge. Seems like his projection is just what your typical industry person outside of China would think. Not that far apart from articles I read online of China's progress. Guess what, I also have a friend in semiconductor industry with contacts in China that thinks China will be able to catch up in many areas in a few years.

Nobody really knows. More importantly, it's important for Chinese domestic industry to underplay some of its capabilities to not attract more sanctions. And it's also important for them to try to unproven domestic technology, since the threat of a DUVL ban is very real. You obviously keep importing from ASML while you can, but you also have to spend resource working with a non proven SMEE solution.

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tokenanalyst said:

The meeting ended without an immediate resolution, and that left hawks in Washington dissatisfied. “No update to the SMIC licensing policy is a major mistake,’’ Michael McCaul, the lead Republican of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement. “We cannot let the interests of one industry segment result in the Chinese military being able to make its own semiconductors.”

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The risk is very real.

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wxw456 said:

First try? Development is more like a back and forth feedback process between equipment manufacturer and user, than a take it or leave it off the shelf product. Us outsiders likely won't get public confirmation of anything until the machine is absolutely ready or already in usage.

Biggest challenge? You need to ask a company insider to truly know that.

I will state that SMIC and SMEE will almost certainly remain solely engaged in manufacturing commercial ICs. Military ICs are explicitly handled by CETC. If you think SMEE is quiet/secretive, then good luck even trying to see what progress CETC is making on their lithography machines!

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ILikeChina said:

But since when SMIC is producing chips for Chinese military? Since the beginning it was CETC, and on the lower resolution than 16 nm. Military doesn't need the latest one. Republicans brain dead.

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hvpc said:

So that means you would accept what I said earlier about SMEE could ship a system late this year or early 2023…but will take a year or two to tune all the systems (iLine/krf/ArF/immersion/other process tools/etc.) for 28nm production?

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