Chinese semiconductor industry

hvpc · Mar 17, 2022

european_guy said:
1) Technical question: what's about Gigaphoton and SMEE? I read that there was a collaboration in the past, but now it is no more clear if the newest litho machines in development rely on Gigaphoton's light source anymore. Maybe this has been also a factor in the delay of SMEE in the last years?

2) Random question: Why someone with such a huge and deep experience like you, decided to show it off so bluntly against us, poor amateurs / enthusiasts, and just in his firsts couple of posts? Was it your intended business card's presentation?

ZeEa5KPul said:
My criterion is very simple: When a user posts that ICRD is performing verification work on EUV components and months later a paper comes out detailing exactly such work, that user has credibility. When that user quotes known SMEE insiders (not random "friends in the industry") about SMEE's progress, that user has credibility. So when that user claims that SMEE has delivered a 28nm ArF immersion lithography machine and is working on a 22nm one, I believe him. You, on the other hand...

I don't know if your "friends" are actually insiders with first-hand knowledge or voices in your head. Your problem is that you have zero credibility, so when what you say contradicts what people with credibility say, what you say goes in the trash can.

That you have actual fab experience is something yet to be established. Once again, your credibility problem.

Sharing information is great, spreading FUD and disinformation isn't. And I don't need you to tell me what to believe or not, I've already made clear that until you establish your credentials or some reason you should be taken seriously, you're just another rando with an opinion.

Mmmm…then please kindly ignore anything I post. : D

tokenanalyst · Mar 17, 2022

ZeEa5KPul said:
My criterion is very simple: When a user posts that ICRD is performing verification work on EUV components and months later a paper comes out detailing exactly such work, that user has credibility. When that user quotes known SMEE insiders (not random "friends in the industry") about SMEE's progress, that user has credibility. So when that user claims that SMEE has delivered a 28nm ArF immersion lithography machine and is working on a 22nm one, I believe him. You, on the other hand...

I don't know if your "friends" are actually insiders with first-hand knowledge or voices in your head. Your problem is that you have zero credibility, so when what you say contradicts what people with credibility say, what you say goes in the trash can.

That you have actual fab experience is something yet to be established. Once again, your credibility problem.

Sharing information is great, spreading FUD and disinformation isn't. And I don't need you to tell me what to believe or not, I've already made clear that until you establish your credentials or some reason you should be taken seriously, you're just another rando with an opinion.

Anyone in social media has a "friend in the industry".
I fail to understand how anyone with 30 year of experience working in fabs and equipment from 350nm to 3nm is so desperate to seek validation in this topic, i understand us who are enthusiasts on this topic.
If this person is an investor as this person claims to be there are much better places to find information about the semiconductor industry than this place like semiengineering or semiwiki, i post a lot from there.

ZeEa5KPul · Mar 17, 2022

hvpc said:
Mmmm…then please kindly ignore anything I post. : D

Oh, I do. The problem is others in this thread give credence to anything some random passerby says as long as it's got some jargon sprinkled in. I'm trying to help them vet what should and shouldn't be believed. Until you've established some reason you should be taken seriously, you're firmly in the latter category.

hvpc · Mar 17, 2022

european_guy said:
1) Technical question: what's about Gigaphoton and SMEE? I read that there was a collaboration in the past, but now it is no more clear if the newest litho machines in development rely on Gigaphoton's light source anymore. Maybe this has been also a factor in the delay of SMEE in the last years?

2) Random question: Why someone with such a huge and deep experience like you, decided to show it off so bluntly against us, poor amateurs / enthusiasts, and just in his firsts couple of posts? Was it your intended business card's presentation?

I’m not sure about Gigaphonton’s involvement in the development of domestic system. My understanding is SMEE will integrate this immersion system with laser from RS Laser of Beijing. I was under the impression RS Laser’s 193nm light source is ready. I didn’t hear of any delay because of the laser.
On your second question, I was doing research on industry status because I own SMIC stock. I want to know what’s going on in China since it would have impact on SMIC…and I stumbled on this forum. I asked a few questions and then the dialogue sort of just took off. I’m hoping to supplement my understanding with any info I can pickup from here…and hope to have good dialogue. It’s never a bad thing to have more info…even if just rumors, it’s worth looking into.
If you feel like I’m “showing off”, I apologize. I’m just trying to share some info to balance out some views that I thought may be a bit unrealistic. trying to be useful and to engage…that’s all.

hvpc · Mar 17, 2022

tokenanalyst said:
Anyone in social media has a "friend in the industry".
I fail to understand how anyone with 30 year of experience working in fabs and equipment from 350nm to 3nm is so desperate to seek validation in this topic, i understand us who are enthusiasts on this topic.
If this person is an investor as this person claims to be there are much better places to find information about the semiconductor industry than this place like semiengineering or semiwiki, i post a lot from there.

Ok. So who do you think I really am and why do you think is my motivation for spending FUD?
I can’t understand why I’m being attacked for trying to participate in a conversation?
If this forum is really not informative or useful to me, I’ll leave eventually, right?
I’m gonna stop responding to this sort of personal attack. I’ll just mind own business and chat with those that want to have a civil discussion with me. Is that okay with you?

tokenanalyst · Mar 17, 2022

Zichan said:
In the news yesterday, Hikvision is buying a second hand ASML's AT:850C system (248nm KrF laser), because no domestic substitute is available:

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well turns out to be a rumor.

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But still that convice me even more about the seriousness of the situation in China about this topic, if SMIC or YMTC are not working with Chinese lithography companies 24/7 on this topic they are committing suicide, if someone can post me concrete evidence about that, not just a "friend in the industry", concrete evidence of that, then will be time to close this thread because that will mean that the Chinese semiconductor industry doesn't have a future.

tokenanalyst · Mar 17, 2022

hvpc said:
Ok. So who do you think I really am and why do you think is my motivation for spending FUD?
I can’t understand why I’m being attacked for trying to participate in a conversation?
If this forum is really not informative or useful to me, I’ll leave eventually, right?
I’m gonna stop responding to this sort of personal attack. I’ll just mind own business and chat with those that want to have a civil discussion with me. Is that okay with you?

I don't mind, I am just curious.

hvpc · Mar 17, 2022

AndrewS said:
Assuming domestic 28nm equipment is available from 2025, how much wafer capacity could China build out from 2025-2035?

If we're going by 200MM wafer equivalents @ 28nm, China is currently at 3.5 Million WPM in terms of installed capacity.

My read is that this could be expanded to a minimum of 10 Million WPM by 2035 and that all this capacity could be consumed solely within China or placed in Chinese exports.

I don’t proclaim to be a fortune teller so I couldn’t comment on what will happen after 2025. I can only comment on announced expansion plan, which you all can Google.

3.5M 200mm wafer per month of 28nm seem way too big. I don’t think it’s that big. Could you verify your 3.5M wafers per month number? Are you sure it’s not 3.5M wafers per year?
Simce SMIC has largest 28nm and below capacity at the moment, let’s use it as a talking point. Based on SMIC claim on their website and financial report, there’s less than 200K 300mm wafers per month of 28nm and below capacity (this translate to only 450K 200mm wafers per month). SMIC CEO indicated last year(?) that demand for 28nm and older in China could take up to 5-7x the current SMIC. if we assume this ratio is true for all nodes, then you could do the math on what capacity still need to be added.

hvpc · Mar 17, 2022

hvpc said:
I don’t proclaim to be a fortune teller so I couldn’t comment on what will happen after 2025. I can only comment on announced expansion plan, which you all can Google.

3.5M 200mm wafer per month of 28nm seem way too big. I don’t think it’s that big. Could you verify your 3.5M wafers per month number? Are you sure it’s not 3.5M wafers per year?
Simce SMIC has largest 28nm and below capacity at the moment, let’s use it as a talking point. Based on SMIC claim on their website and financial report, there’s less than 200K 300mm wafers per month of 28nm and below capacity (this translate to only 450K 200mm wafers per month). SMIC CEO indicated last year(?) that demand for 28nm and older in China could take up to 5-7x the current SMIC. if we assume this ratio is true for all nodes, then you could do the math on what capacity still need to be added.

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I had assumed all 160K 300mm Wafwrs per month @ Beijing fab are capable of 28nm (previously website did not split that up the capacity numbers to 24-65nm & 55nm-0.18um). So using this new info but assume all 100k of 24-65nm can handle 28nm…plus 34K of 14nm from Shanghai, we are looking at only 135K 300mm wpm or 303K 200mm wpm….which would translate to roughly the 3.5M number you quoted, but in wafers per year.

then let’s multiply by 5…then we are looking at additional 675K 300mm wpm to be added.
SMIC already announced 235K 300mm wpm before 2025. So, I e can assume 440K more 300mm wpm could be added after 2025 (or 990K 200mm wpm).

that’s just a rough guesstimate based on known current capacity, capacity expansion, and on what Dr Zhao Haijun said. of course, to be accurate we have to look at the end application trend that would use 28nm from 2024 to 2035. But that would require more research.

anyhow, above is just my two cents.

Zichan · Mar 17, 2022

hvpc said:
@Zichan, this HiKvision news turned out to be fake news:

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this is why i don't completely trust news articles.

Interesting. A quick Google search found a dozen articles with the same news. The original source appears to have been South China Morning Post. Good catch. Let's see how the story evolves, if at all.

Chinese semiconductor industry

hvpc

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