Mmmm…then please kindly ignore anything I post. : D
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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Anyone in social media has a "friend in the industry".
I fail to understand how anyone with 30 year of experience working in fabs and equipment from 350nm to 3nm is so desperate to seek validation in this topic, i understand us who are enthusiasts on this topic.
If this person is an investor as this person claims to be there are much better places to find information about the semiconductor industry than this place like semiengineering or semiwiki, i post a lot from there.
Oh, I do. The problem is others in this thread give credence to anything some random passerby says as long as it's got some jargon sprinkled in. I'm trying to help them vet what should and shouldn't be believed. Until you've established some reason you should be taken seriously, you're firmly in the latter category.
I’m not sure about Gigaphonton’s involvement in the development of domestic system. My understanding is SMEE will integrate this immersion system with laser from RS Laser of Beijing. I was under the impression RS Laser’s 193nm light source is ready. I didn’t hear of any delay because of the laser.
On your second question, I was doing research on industry status because I own SMIC stock. I want to know what’s going on in China since it would have impact on SMIC…and I stumbled on this forum. I asked a few questions and then the dialogue sort of just took off. I’m hoping to supplement my understanding with any info I can pickup from here…and hope to have good dialogue. It’s never a bad thing to have more info…even if just rumors, it’s worth looking into.
If you feel like I’m “showing off”, I apologize. I’m just trying to share some info to balance out some views that I thought may be a bit unrealistic. trying to be useful and to engage…that’s all.
Ok. So who do you think I really am and why do you think is my motivation for spending FUD?
I can’t understand why I’m being attacked for trying to participate in a conversation?
If this forum is really not informative or useful to me, I’ll leave eventually, right?
I’m gonna stop responding to this sort of personal attack. I’ll just mind own business and chat with those that want to have a civil discussion with me. Is that okay with you?
well turns out to be a rumor.
But still that convice me even more about the seriousness of the situation in China about this topic, if SMIC or YMTC are not working with Chinese lithography companies 24/7 on this topic they are committing suicide, if someone can post me concrete evidence about that, not just a "friend in the industry", concrete evidence of that, then will be time to close this thread because that will mean that the Chinese semiconductor industry doesn't have a future.
I don't mind, I am just curious.
I don’t proclaim to be a fortune teller so I couldn’t comment on what will happen after 2025. I can only comment on announced expansion plan, which you all can Google.
3.5M 200mm wafer per month of 28nm seem way too big. I don’t think it’s that big. Could you verify your 3.5M wafers per month number? Are you sure it’s not 3.5M wafers per year?
Simce SMIC has largest 28nm and below capacity at the moment, let’s use it as a talking point. Based on SMIC claim on their website and financial report, there’s less than 200K 300mm wafers per month of 28nm and below capacity (this translate to only 450K 200mm wafers per month). SMIC CEO indicated last year(?) that demand for 28nm and older in China could take up to 5-7x the current SMIC. if we assume this ratio is true for all nodes, then you could do the math on what capacity still need to be added.
I had assumed all 160K 300mm Wafwrs per month @ Beijing fab are capable of 28nm (previously website did not split that up the capacity numbers to 24-65nm & 55nm-0.18um). So using this new info but assume all 100k of 24-65nm can handle 28nm…plus 34K of 14nm from Shanghai, we are looking at only 135K 300mm wpm or 303K 200mm wpm….which would translate to roughly the 3.5M number you quoted, but in wafers per year.
then let’s multiply by 5…then we are looking at additional 675K 300mm wpm to be added.
SMIC already announced 235K 300mm wpm before 2025. So, I e can assume 440K more 300mm wpm could be added after 2025 (or 990K 200mm wpm).
that’s just a rough guesstimate based on known current capacity, capacity expansion, and on what Dr Zhao Haijun said. of course, to be accurate we have to look at the end application trend that would use 28nm from 2024 to 2035. But that would require more research.
anyhow, above is just my two cents.
Interesting. A quick Google search found a dozen articles with the same news. The original source appears to have been South China Morning Post. Good catch. Let's see how the story evolves, if at all.
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