some links on info I shared above for your reference:
New announced 28nm Shanghai fab:
New Beijing fab:
This one talked about the second 14nm and below fab in Shanghai:
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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New announced 28nm Shanghai fab:
New Beijing fab:
This one talked about the second 14nm and below fab in Shanghai:
Thanks for replying to me.
Please, accept some doubt from the forum, I guess it is totally normal, considering how you choose to “entering the scene"
FWIW I don't ask myself too much about who are you or where are you from. I just post and will post questions / notes that are interesting to me and possibly to other people in this forum.
Deja vu? I swear the exact same 28nm debate happened a year ago in this thread.
At that time I pointed out that SMIC was building a new 28nm fab in Shenzhen that processes 300mm wafers at a rate of 40,000 wafers per month. Production is expected to start sometime in 2022 for the new Shenzhen fab. Since then SMIC has started construction on a new 28nm fab in Shanghai that processes 300mm wafers at a rate of 100,000 wafers per month. Given that SMIC is under sanctions, it is reasonable to assume that they have alternatives to any equipment that could be denied. I seriously doubt the company would risk $10 billion+ of investments on the known risk of being denied equipment. This indirectly points to SMIC having access to a 28nm capable frontend lithography machine that cannot be sanctioned. I will also point out that TSMC and UMC have significant 28nm capacity in China.
I also pointed out that SMIC has only slowly expanded its 14nm capable fab to about 15,000 wafers per month in 2021. This indicates that the company is not yet confident in procuring enough equipment to build a new 14nm fab. My stance is still the same since last year, SMIC initiating a large expansion at the 14nm node would indirectly indicate the existence of a domestic DUV capable of 14nm.
Everyone also needs to remember that this is an anonymous forum. Saying you have credentials or experience is pointless because none of it is verifiable by other users. Owning stock is also useless because anyone with a brokerage account could buy shares of Intel, AMD, ASML, TSMC, etc. Owning stock does not make you an expert.
SMIC is not sanctioned from buying DUV immersion systems for 28nm or 14nm.
could you kindly explain why you believe otherwise?
broadsword
Brigadier
As a first-time poster but long-time lurker, I welcome new contributions from others who have a different - and perhaps more experienced - perspective. Given China's history of grossly under-performing past semiconductor goals, caution and healthy skepticism regarding bullish statements on technical progress is warranted.
The difference is, this time we have Comrade Trump on our side.
Comrade Trump accomplished something Xi nor any previous Chinese leader was able to do - galvanize the private sector
I do agree and we should be skeptical, that is why 2020 when all the debate of whatever SMEE was developing in DUVi machine started I was pretty skeptical too but doing my "research" I have become less so, I am pretty convinced now. The new saga now is when is going to be delivered, the real answer is: We don't know, SMEE is not transparent enough to us put a concrete date.
The ultimate saga will be if the machine will be up to standards, the real answer is: We don't know, SMEE is not transparent enough.
Also I am sorry if I offended anyone but I am just skeptical of social media-like post like "I have a friend in the industry" or posting impressive credentials without backing it up. That is why I avoid posting from twitter.
It is a very real risk. There is talk of using existing sanctions to ban DUV machines from SMIC in the US. You also have to remember that even if SMIC is buys a DUV from ASML it is likely to be reported to a government agency in the US.
The real big change is that news from SMIC has shifted from 14nm, N+1 and N+2 to 28nm. If SMIC was truly confident in the supply of DUV machines from ASML, then it would also be engaged in major expansion of its manufacturing capacity at the 14nm node.
My point was it is relatively simple for the average person to own shares of major semiconductor manufacturers. In fact just buying common market index ETFs would likely mean you are indirectly invested in a semiconductor manufacturing company.
Many here are skeptical. That is why the next milestone is still mass production at 14nm despite many of the people here talking about EUV machines (it's just more interesting to talk about EUVL development). The point being made is that all evidence points to 28nm as essentially a done deal at this point. The question is not if SMEE has a DUV machine, but how capable the DUV machine from SMEE is right now. There is still a large gap between manufacturing 28nm and 7nm using a DUV machine.
The meeting ended without an immediate resolution, and that left hawks in Washington dissatisfied. “No update to the SMIC licensing policy is a major mistake,’’ Michael McCaul, the lead Republican of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement. “We cannot let the interests of one industry segment result in the Chinese military being able to make its own semiconductors.”
The risk is very real.
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