Chinese semiconductor industry

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Skywatcher

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tinrobert said:
Two points I want to make. China won't have an impact on EUV sales even in the long term. My chart in the article on DUV backlog includes EUV data, but that chart was used in my Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter that people subscribe to, as opposed to these free articles on Seeking Alpha.
Anyway it is DUV that ASML needs to worry about in China, and putting SMEE on the verified list is a way to quiet ASML, because they are not happy having the U.S. tell them what to do about EUV. Thats the same as TSMC, Samsung, and SK hynix being told they have to divulge details of their customers. People in China are familiar with this, but it's starting to happen in N. America with school mask mandates and truck drivers in Canada.
The other thing is the oversupply of chips coming. I pointed out and referenced it in this article that back in June I detailed my thesis that all this semiconductor equipment sold in 2021 and all foundries being built in 2020-2023 will give rise to an oversupply of logic chips made at foundries, and the market crash will last two years, based on what happened in 2000, which these data this year are replicating. Logic chips will be cheap, but memory chip units and prices won't be, so companies like Micron, Samsung, and SK will benefit as memory is used in conjunction with logic chips.
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Very good point.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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DDR5 is supposed to be required by Intel and AMD CPUs to be launched this year.

Samsung is already using EUV to manufacture DRAM. Samsung started mass production of 12 Gb LPDDR5 memory in June 2019.
Mass production of 16 Gb LPDDR5 at Samsung started in August 2020. This uses their 10nm class (1z) process.
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For reference CXMT is still selling 8 Gb LPDDR4 memory.

LPDDR chips are basically what is used in smartphones. DDR is what is used for desktops and servers. Samsung claims their 16Gb LPDDR5 chips have 20% less power consumption and twice the memory density as an 8Gb LPDDR4X chip.
 
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european_guy

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Financial information for some publicly-traded equipment manufacturers.

Among these companies, AMEC and ACM Research seem already at world class level.

NAURA Technology Group Co Ltd (North Huachuang)
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Mainly vapor deposition, diffusion, ALD and plasma etching
Technology level: up to 28nm
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AMEC Advanced Micro-Fabrication (Zhongwei Semiconductor Equipment)
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Mainly dry etching, MOVCD
Technology level: up to 5nm
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ACM Research Inc (Shengmei Semiconductor Equipment)
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Mainly wet processing
Technology level: up to 14nm
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Kingsemi Co Ltd (Shenyang Xinyuan Microelectronics Equipment)
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Mainly coating/developing
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tokenanalyst

Brigadier
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gelgoog said:
The Chinese article also says that it is expected that CXMT will start manufacturing 17nm DDR5/LPDDR5 DRAM this year.

It is hard to get sales numbers for Chinese semiconductor equipment since these companies typically do not have the same kind of requirement to release information to investors we see with companies which have shares in Western stock markets. SMIC is traded in the Hong Kong stock exchange that is why it is much easier to get information on their financial performance.
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They do report sale numbers, specially like the ones who are in the Shanghai Stock Exchange STAR Market but they usually report in Chinese and for others you have to scout the Chinese internet to find the investors meeting.
 
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tinrobert

Junior Member
Registered Member
dfrtyhgj said:
Nice try Biden.
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Believe me, I am not Biden (nor did I vote for him). I've been analyzing the semiconductor industry since 1985 when I started The Information Network (
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) and you may have read my articles I publish through Seeking Alpha.
It's important to know more about the equipment coming out of China, but my analysis shows a strong conflict between semiconductor equipment imports versus home grown equipment revenues. For the first three quarters of 2021, 24% of all equipment purchases went to China, yet home-grown share is less than 10%, primarily from NAURA and AMEC.
To to really understand the impact of China equipment on the global stage, we need statistics. That means revenues and importantly customers.
A real case in point, which I've written about is SMEE. It's important to know if a 22nm system is sold to SMIC versus a 90nm system sold to someone making older chips.
 
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tinrobert

Junior Member
Registered Member
tokenanalyst said:
They do report sale numbers, specially like the ones who are in the Shanghai Stock Exchange STAR Market but they usually report in Chinese and for others you have to scout the Chinese internet to find the investors meeting.
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Let me give you an example. These companies supply 1 number to STAR but may have 5 different product areas. Applied Materials has about 20 different types of equipment and supplies 1 number to the SEC. How does one, and myself included as an analyst, find out revenues by sector, such as deposition, and subsector, such as PVD, ALD, PEVCD, etc, and compare revenues to Tokyo Electron that competes in these sectors, versus Lam Research that doesn't sell PVD. Only 1 number to STAR or SEC doesn't cut it.
 
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tinrobert

Junior Member
Registered Member
european_guy said:
Financial information for some publicly-traded equipment manufacturers.

Among these companies, AMEC and ACM Research seem already at world class level.

NAURA Technology Group Co Ltd (North Huachuang)
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Mainly vapor deposition, diffusion, ALD and plasma etching
Technology level: up to 28nm
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AMEC Advanced Micro-Fabrication (Zhongwei Semiconductor Equipment)
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Mainly dry etching, MOVCD
Technology level: up to 5nm
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ACM Research Inc (Shengmei Semiconductor Equipment)
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Mainly wet processing
Technology level: up to 14nm
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Kingsemi Co Ltd (Shenyang Xinyuan Microelectronics Equipment)
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Mainly coating/developing
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Thanks for the information. But as I said in a previous response, 1 number doesn't make a complete story. Let's take a look at Naura. Just 1 number given, but in my database, I have Naura selling Spray Processors with its largest competitor Japan's Screen; Wet Stations, again against Screen; Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) with largest competitor ASM Int'l; Sputtering (PVD) with largest competitor Applied Materials; and Conductor Etch, with largest competitor Lam Research.
We can't understand the impact of China's home grown equipment on the global market if we don't have a breakdown on these numbers.
 
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