Skywatcher
Captain
Very good point.Two points I want to make. China won't have an impact on EUV sales even in the long term. My chart in the article on DUV backlog includes EUV data, but that chart was used in my Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter that people subscribe to, as opposed to these free articles on Seeking Alpha.
Anyway it is DUV that ASML needs to worry about in China, and putting SMEE on the verified list is a way to quiet ASML, because they are not happy having the U.S. tell them what to do about EUV. Thats the same as TSMC, Samsung, and SK hynix being told they have to divulge details of their customers. People in China are familiar with this, but it's starting to happen in N. America with school mask mandates and truck drivers in Canada.
The other thing is the oversupply of chips coming. I pointed out and referenced it in this article that back in June I detailed my thesis that all this semiconductor equipment sold in 2021 and all foundries being built in 2020-2023 will give rise to an oversupply of logic chips made at foundries, and the market crash will last two years, based on what happened in 2000, which these data this year are replicating. Logic chips will be cheap, but memory chip units and prices won't be, so companies like Micron, Samsung, and SK will benefit as memory is used in conjunction with logic chips.