Chinese semiconductor industry

That post, all it was, it was a rumour.

So, is the rumour, ie, is the information good or not?

They gave a year, 2023, two years from now.

EUV? What exactly is China doing now? DUV.

What is after DUV? Isn't it EUV?

Now someone anonymously posted on Twitter, and suggested a date. 2023.

That means they are signalling 2 years from now, China will get EUV.

But, it is still first come first served.

That is all it means to me.

Someone will bet on it.

horse said:

That is why I am saying that you're going off on a tangent.

You are looking at the wrong thing.

It is pretty much accepted that no one really knows what is going on. That's business. How much stock should you buy? Will the economy tank? How much PPE gear do we really need?

Those basic questions, how many got right?

You want certainty.

I am telling you, that there is no certainty here.

Just clues.

This really is the world they operate in.

You want certainty and you will fail in business.

If they are saying, "Hey, we will have XX by 2023, come check it out," someone will check it out.

If that is not good enough for you, then that is not good enough for you.

By the time when it is all clear and certain, those who waited for that moment of clarity, got beaten to the punch, lost out on that deal.

Click to expand...

The whole point of our efforts is to determine which rumours and which news can be taken more seriously than others, to allow us to try and project how and when things will unfold.

This specific claim about Huawei being able to attain EUV lithography by 2023 does not meet the criteria to be taken seriously at this stage, based on:
1. the outlet and author it arose from and their past track record on Chinese technology industry developments, and
2. the current consensus base of understanding of where Chinese EUV lithography efforts are at and when they are expected


This specific claim as it currently stands should not be good enough for any of us, and should not be good enough for anyone that is interested in good faith and disciplined watching of Chinese semiconductor efforts.

In the future we may get new information that could change that impression.
But at present, no, it should not be taken seriously, and you should not be defending it.

Xsizor said:

Well, I never realized it was Tom Fowdy's. Explains some things in that website.
But this is a hot topic and sensationalism without substance will be noted by his base. I'm sure there will be atleast some "evidences" they will show for all this. even though they might end up being repackaged old stuff.

Click to expand...

There is an alternative, more logical position to take.

I.e.: to acknowledge that such a claim is completely unsupported, and inconsistent with our recent past understanding of where Chinese EUVL efforts are at, and that the outlet and author do not have a track record for breaking this kind of news regarding Chinese technology industry news, and that therefore with the current information we have, the idea that "Huawei will have EUVL by 2023" should not be taken seriously?

We might get information from more reliable sources and usual suspects that might allow us to take it seriously if they corroborate Chollima/Fowdy's claims -- but unless such a situation emerges, the most reasonable stance for us to take is to treat the claim as very suspect at best, and useless at worst.

weig2000 said:

So it is half-year salary? If so, that's pretty impressive. You're talking about $100K annual salary on average for these companies. Not sure if they include annual bonus above.

Click to expand...

Monthly. What's not known to most people is China's push for semiconductor development didn't start with Huawei sanctions and even MIC 2025. All semiconductor companies with promising products or plans are getting heavily subsidized since at least 2014. They give high salaries to both get experienced workers from outside the country and keep the Chinese talent in.

Good news continue

Bltizo said:

This specific claim as it currently stands should not be good enough for any of us, and should not be good enough for anyone that is interested in good faith and disciplined watching of Chinese semiconductor efforts.

In the future we may get new information that could change that impression.
But at present, no, it should not be taken seriously, and you should not be defending it.

Click to expand...

They gave a date, 2 years out, which is too far in the future to dismiss it or take it seriously for that matter. LOL.

Two years is a long time in tech.

I do not disagree necessarily with what you are saying, but we have to look at potential. This is still a business decision.

If someone says in this case, "I got the potential!" I do not think there is a choice, Chinese companies have to go check it out. They will not dismiss it, they cannot afford to.

The way the IC industry is, there must be coordination. To build the product, then get everyone on the same page, that is not possible or prudent. The various components in the industry must work in tandem every step of the way in the process of setting up the entire manufacturing process. This rumour, out of the blue?

Also, in this case, it is not really the source that I found good or bad, but the company in question, Huawei.

Huawei being battered by the US government, after the results this year, Huawei is still a bigger company than Dell, Sony, Bosch, Intel in terms of revenue.

Anything that is rumoured about Huawei, we have to take seriously.

Unless Huawei comes out and denies it, they we should dismiss it.

But Huawei denied they had their Harmony O/S too at one point.

Don't mind me. Just posting Tom Fowdy's tweet that "it's a reliable source".

I am bookmarking this post and I will be checking weekly to see if something comes out of this

Overbom said:

Don't mind me. Just posting Tom Fowdy's tweet that "it's a reliable source".

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1476343270435594241

I am bookmarking this post and I will be checking weekly to see if something comes out of this

Click to expand...

This is the problem with Huawei.

They cannot stop their rumours from leaking out.

Ren Zhengfei is military. Those in the military take this keeping secrets seriously.

But then again, if three people should know, that secret is no longer a secret.

Remember when the final round of sanctions from Trump that barred Huawei from using Google?

A Middle East representative working for Huawei, lost his cool, and blurted out on Twitter or somewhere, that Huawei had this Harmony OS and will fight back.

Head office in Shenzheng denied that, outright.

Then the story changed, that Harmony OS was only meant for IoT and not cells, but they probably will work on it.

Then of course, it was meant for cell phones all along, and it will debut, and now it really is a legit cell phone OS that is still gaining users, breaking the American monopoly on cell phone OS.

I still remember with that guy in the Middle East said that Huawei will fight back with their own OS.

That was total bs I thought.

And the company, Huawei denied it too.

Well, that bs came true pretty quick, lol.

It keeps it interesting.

China has been researching EUV lithography since 2012-2014 and they have relevant hardware( the light source, the mirrors and so on),


They are even working hard to develop SSMB as an EUV light source, and they are getting results, if they succeed on that it will be a huge triumph for China because it is a clean EUV light source (does not generate debris) and high power (up to one kilowatt instead. of 200w).




Whatever the hardware they have the biggest problem will to scale everything and combined it seamless into a commercial viable machine and that is the hardest part. I hope they develop one by 2023, but i still think 2025 is more of a closer date, The only thing we have now is to wait and see.