Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
- Start date
- Status
I see. It should be monthly salary in rmb then, still roughly translate into 6-month in dollar. I would still be right ($100K/yr) by coincidence. lol.
You have not addressed my previous points.
I'll repeat it here:
"This specific claim about Huawei being able to attain EUV lithography by 2023 does not meet the criteria to be taken seriously at this stage, based on:
1. the outlet and author it arose from and their past track record on Chinese technology industry developments, and
2. the current consensus base of understanding of where Chinese EUV lithography efforts are at and when they are expected
This specific claim as it currently stands should not be good enough for any of us, and should not be good enough for anyone that is interested in good faith and disciplined watching of Chinese semiconductor efforts.
In the future we may get new information that could change that impression.
But at present, no, it should not be taken seriously, and you should not be defending it."
For the last year and a half we have had an interim estimated date for when we expect a viable EUVL solution could emerge -- that year was 2025.
Given the very long development times for EUV lithography systems, and their high complexity, if such projections are to be altered and especially if they are brought forward, it would require substantial burden of proof or at least significant entertainment of credibility based on who the rumours are coming from.
The source in this case -- Chollima/Fowdy -- has neither of those things in this domain, and therefore I do not believe we in good faith can say that at present, based on those tweets that we can seriously entertain the idea of EUVL being ready in 2023.
And no, the development of an operating system does not mean that we can take the idea of Huawei developing EUVL 2023 as if it is a reasonable rumour.
The idea of EUVL being ready in 2023 is an extraordinary claim that requires significant proof, or at least significant credibility being backed behind it.
We have neither of those things.
Until the situation changes, there is no basis that anyone can reasonably claim that EUVL will be ready by 2023, and at this stage, claiming it as if it is expected is being excessively optimistic that borders on delusion.
Simply put -- Chollima/Fowdy is not considered a credible source. If it was various other places and usual suspects with credible track records had stated 2023 instead, then I would take it much more seriously.
Yeah, but dude, you're not saying anything other than, "I don't believe it."
That's fine, that's your prerogative.
I am not trying to convince you otherwise.
What I am saying, I am inclined to believe it, even though if it does not come through, does not matter either. 2023, 2024, 2025 2026, 2027, if EUV appears in China in any of those years, we know who wins.
The reason I am inclined to believe it, it is basic facts.
- EUV is not unknown to the Chinese technicians working on it.
- DUV already exists in China.
- The major differences between EUV and DUV is still the light source.
- The chemicals and other components have to addressed at the same time
- Hauwei and SMIC are building a fab together.
- Everyone knows what they want, meaning the degree of collaboration inside China probably is very high, it is a top priority project
All the pieces are there floating in front of them, with the road and a direct path to their objectives.
Under these circumstances, I think EUV is a certainty that will happen in China.
Why not 2023?
Someone who does not believe that will happen in 2023, fine, pick a year. I do not believe we are haggling over anything else other than these minor points.
It is not about what Fowdly may have or may not have said. It is about think for ourselves. About evidence in front of us.
The experts? I think I pass on that one on this question. The only real experts here is TSMC, and they not saying squat.
The entire point of my last few posts is that I am disputing the Chollima tweet claiming EUVL will emerge in 2023 for Huawei.
If you are saying "I don't care, pick a year, China will have EUVL eventually" -- good for you. I believe China will have EUVL eventually too.
However, you are discussing an entirely different topic to me.
I am specifically disputing the idea from Chollima/Fowdy that EUVL will be ready in 2023.
If you are not defending the claim or writing anything in relation to the claim, then don't waste your time and my time with these replies.
You may not care about the year in which it emerges.
But I do, and I am actively contesting it.
If you aren't interested in contesting it, then move out of the way.
Last edited:
broadsword
Brigadier
What sits doubtful with me is that Stephen Chen has not reported it. Tom Fowdy has his long-standing sources in China for political information, obviously, despite not working from China. I mean, he has paid the price for his miscreants, what had to be done was done, but some people were sympathetic and at the same time appreciative of a man still continuing to speak up for China. Thanks, Tom!
But his reliable sources so far have been all about politics. They could be tripped up about technical matters as complicated as semiconductor manufacturing. Hence, I won't rule out they might have given Tom the wrong info.
But his reliable sources so far have been all about politics. They could be tripped up about technical matters as complicated as semiconductor manufacturing. Hence, I won't rule out they might have given Tom the wrong info.
@tokenanalyst bro a technical question, using SSMB require another set of chemical material and masking? or the same with the current available EUVL materials?
antiterror13
Brigadier
I believe China will have indigenous EUV in 2025, I don't believe in 2023. But heyyy, I am more than happy to be wrong
But I see your points, and China has surprised us many many times in the last 20 years .. so this may be another one
I am happy if China gets indigenuos 28nm, 14nm this year 2022, export them in 2023. Anymore than that is a bonus. If there is huawei phone with local chinese chip and harmony os available in my country I will be the first in line, but I doubt that will happen this year.
You sure it's monthly - e.g. $68000 a month? Or there is a mistake on the picture and there should be RMB instead of a $ sign (still very high though but wouldn't surprise me)?
- Status