Chinese purchase of Su-35

MiG-29 said:

I will be utterely honest with you, my first post said it is hard to know the state of WS-15.
You are free to believe China is building WS-10s to the degree they are building J-11Bs at a rate of 12-20 a year.

I quoted sources that have not being proven wrong, in fact show me each and every J-11B made, even those 3 or four regiments.

The USAF, Russian air force the JASDF use satellites and AWACS, in fact the Japanese F-15s happen to encounter Chinese fighters very often.

Now do you think they do not calculate how many J-11s might face their F-15Js?


I am not underestimating the spotters, however you are over estimating them.

Click to expand...

It is a matter of reasoning. Reliable sources specific to watching Chinese Military development have identified many times the number of J-11B in service versus your source material. This is backed up by photographs of units and a multitude of airframe serial numbers. There are detailed pictures of the engines used on the J-11B to confirm that it is a variant of WS-10.

We also know J-10A uses AL-31FN from similar photos and video, not WS-10 as per your earlier post.

People becoming angry with you stems from your clinging to information they factually know to be incorrect (in this case it is not a subjective debate about RCS and Aerodynamics). They have tried to share with you various points on why your sources are incorrect and you have dismissed them.

You need to let it go and not take the debunking of your source information as a personal defeat.

Cheers,
Zool

t2contra said:

This seems to go against the denial reported here

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

Those were russian media outlets. Rosobornexport is a russian government oficial entity.

kroko said:

Those were russian media outlets. Rosobornexport is a russian government oficial entity.

Click to expand...

Normally, the media reports would be consistent with their own country's position on such issues and not to fudge the course of the country's export trade, just saying.

if 'Rosoboronexport' has stated that China WILL get Su-35 jets, then I think this is the 1st time the official entity has confirmed it, unlike the previous reports which were from Media outlets.

Rosoboronexport is the "sole Russian state intermediary agency responsible for import/export of the full range of defense and dual-use end products, technologies and services." -

MiG-29 said:

....

Click to expand...

O.k. difficult situations seem to require difficult solutions.
Again ... I simply beg You (and You really don't need to follow my opinion if You don't like it) to argue, since that the way to do it right in this forum !

What the hell does the number of F-16 build or even F-18 has to do with Your false statements, what does the Russian production output of engines has to do with the facts we want to discuss and You constantly ignore ??

To keep Your opinion is fine, but why on earth can't You ever simply answer a simply question You were asked, why can't You argue when You get an argument ? ... You again and again only seem to be able to post "sources" and pages of irrelevant blabalabla and then tell me to either accept or not-accept them even if they did not touch any of the questions with any word.


As such I make it simple:

1. You said (#738) "16 J-11Bs and a max of 120-200 J-10s which suggest low production of WS-10s":

a) Why on earth do You now take only 16 J-11B for granted and why do You think the J-10 is powered by the WS-10 ?
b) Why does these numbers are a sign of a low production of WS-10, even more when the J-10 is powered by the AL-31FN ??
c) Why do You ignore Huitong's list (#744) where several more J-11B/BS/BH were identified ?
d) Or do You assume there are in fact only 16 J-11B which were repeatedly repainted or renumbered just to fool us ?

Please explain !


2. You accused us (#740) "if you want to believe there are 2000 J-11Bs you are free to believe it, however AIR FORCE Magazine did not think they have 2000 J-11Bs neither Rebecca Grant"

a) Please state, who stated in what post that the PLAAF operated 2000 J-11B ?
b) if not said by anyone here, then please explain, why a refusal to accept Your 16-20 J-11B directly leads to the assumption that there 2000 operational.
... as far as I followed no-one mentioned this number but You.


3. You seem to take RAND or Ms. Grant as a highly reliable source.

a) Please explain us WHY do You trust them more than others, even if their numbers and assumptions (# 753) are so much lower than others, even if these numbers were debunked already by others or several additional sources ?
b) Why should they have more reliable information without access to classified information than others ??
c) And even more why sould other sources or books (some You seem not to like) should be wrong, when even Mr. Polmar - who surely has access to classified information - reviewed them to "... provide as much information as most classified materials on air orders of battle" can provide. (at least I take this as a nice compliment that my assumptions are not that far off from the real PLAAF ORBAT even if I don't have SAC's production list nor the official PLAAF texts).



Don't get me wrong, but since it is a right to have a different opinion, to be a member of this forum is a privilege. As such since I'm a teacher I now have that very strong feeling like in a lesson on how to argue and discuss: My pupils do not need to have my opinion (that's for sure) but they have to argue and to discuss !

As such I think these few questions should be a good start and even more I beg You to do this homework ... To tell me again that the world has more than one opinion and that this is fine and as such I should relax won't be accepted as "homework done" and I'm not sure I would try to find out what will happen then.


Deino

kroko said:

I dont know if this has been posted but the russian arms export, rosoboronexport, says that a deal to sell su-35 to china and another deal to sell ordnance for it will get signed in 2014.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

rosoboronexport is an official entity. I think this definitely lends more credibility to the rumours that china will buy su-35.

Click to expand...

"The signing will most likely take place next year."

Devil is in the details.

Hyperwarp said:

if 'Rosoboronexport' has stated that China WILL get Su-35 jets, then I think this is the 1st time the official entity has confirmed it, unlike the previous reports which were from Media outlets.

Rosoboronexport is the "sole Russian state intermediary agency responsible for import/export of the full range of defense and dual-use end products, technologies and services." -

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

Rosoboronexport isn't as reliable as you'd like to think. I think they also claimed in June that the deal will be signed in October this year. Tha never materialized. Like I said before. Until I see the Su-35s in PLAAF colors, such news must be taken with a grain of salt.

siegecrossbow said:

"The signing will most likely take place next year."

Devil is in the details.

Click to expand...

Even if I truely think that deal is not impossible ... we have again to consider the source is once again (and here how often since 2010 ???) not Rosoboronexport but rian.ru !!!

kroko said:

I dont know if this has been posted but the russian arms export, rosoboronexport, says that a deal to sell su-35 to china and another deal to sell ordnance for it will get signed in 2014.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

rosoboronexport is an official entity. I think this definitely lends more credibility to the rumours that china will buy su-35.

Click to expand...

As such I only take this contract for granted when it is officialll confirmed !

Deino

MiG-29 said:

I will be utterely honest with you, my first post said it is hard to know the state of WS-15.
You are free to believe China is building WS-10s to the degree they are building J-11Bs at a rate of 12-20 a year.

I quoted sources that have not being proven wrong, in fact show me each and every J-11B made, even those 3 or four regiments.

Click to expand...

Actually, your sources have been proven wrong already.


In 2011, said "we are seeing 3 PLAAF and 1 PLANAF regiments that have been converted or is the middle of been converted into using J-11B. We are also seeing J-11BS joining different PLAAF regiments in the trainer role (rather than just in J-11B regiments). And I think once these regiments are filled later this year or by early next year at the latest, there will be at least 100 J-11B/S after about 4 years of production. When considering that J-10’s production is only a little higher than that in the same period, it is quite an accomplishment for SAC. This development would also indicate that PLA is very satisfied with the performance of J-11B/S."

MiG-29 said:

The USAF, Russian air force the JASDF use satellites and AWACS, in fact the Japanese F-15s happen to encounter Chinese fighters very often.

Now do you think they do not calculate how many J-11s might face their F-15Js?

I am not underestimating the spotters, however you are over estimating them.

Click to expand...

Air Force Magazine is not USAF, Russian or JASDF. A magazine does not have access to military satellites and AWACS. As such, whether air forces have an accurate numbers of Chinese fighters has no correlation to the reliability of your sources.

MiG-29 said:

The Chinese jet engine industry still is uncapable of making several type of engines.

Click to expand...

The J-11B only needs WS-10, both are in serial production. That's only one type of engine, not several types of engines.

MiG-29 said:

That is the reason i said J-10 is build in such low numbers. the US built 1000 F-16s a decade, in fact more than 4000 have been build.

The F-18 is similar.

Click to expand...

The major reason why US has some 1000 fighters is that they have been building those fighters for some 30 years. China has only been building the J-10 for some ten years, and the J-11B for some five years. Total number of aircraft produced is a different concept to rate of production.

MiG-29 said:

China`s Flanker production is also closely watched by Sukhoi and Russia.

Grant`s guess is a good attempt, so good that unless you have official production numbers by shenyang hardly you can say she is wrong besides your hunch she is.

Click to expand...

Grant is not Sukhoi, Russian government, or Shenyang itself. There is little basis to claim her numbers being right besides your wish that they are. The issue here is that we know with certainty that the estimate of 18 J-11B is incorrect, since multiple J-11B regiments has already been observed.

MiG-29 said:

Is she the last word? no i do not think so, however i suggest you to see there are different assesments and are as valid as yours, you might be right, however i do not think you have official PLAAF or AVIC numbers for the J-11B production.

So if i a reader happen to have some level of skepticism is simply because i have seen not official releases by AVIC or the PLAAF for J-11B production numbers.

Click to expand...

Like I have said before, all opinions start with amount of facts, as such it is a false assumption to consider them to be equally valid. In this case, it is known that there are more J-11B than your sources claimed. So your source is not as valid as what have been observed and documented by Scramble.

kroko said:

I dont know if this has been posted but the russian arms export, rosoboronexport, says that a deal to sell su-35 to china and another deal to sell ordnance for it will get signed in 2014.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

rosoboronexport is an official entity. I think this definitely lends more credibility to the rumours that china will buy su-35.

Click to expand...

If you read the article, you will realize that it is merely about one official at rosoboronoexport expressing his opinions at what he hopes to happen. It is not an official statement of a sale by rosoboronoexport.

Every year, Russian sources claim a Su-35 deal with China will be signed soon. In 2012, the Russians claimed the jets will be delivered in 2013. Then in 2013, the Russians claimed the jets will be delivered in 2014. There have even been occasions where Russian sources claimed outright that a deal has been sealed, only to went back to claiming the deal will be signed "soon" a few months later.

I see no reason to consider the deal to be serious other than a bad marketing ploy.