Chinese purchase of Su-35

MiG-29 said:

I get very well your point, here people are free to believe there are 3 or 4 regiments 100 or 2000 J-11Bs or what ever the number, you are free too.


Take me seriously? here, first i am not Rebbeca Grant, niether the RAND corporation, so do not say i am the author, this is not about me but about different sources.

There are different opinions out there, yes my friend there are, that is a fact, the world has different opinions, Grant has the same authority as Norman polar, and the Airforcemag.com is another good site.

However you do not want to admit there are other opinions that have the same veracity level.

Why i do believe her? simple, J-31 uses RD-93, J-10 uses Al-31s.

How this affects the numbers? simple the USA built more than 1000 F-16 a decade, ask you why?
answer they build their engines.

How many Su-27s Russia build from 1983 to 1991?

700 why? they build the engine.


How many F-4s the USA built in 2 decades? 5000, how many J-8 China built?

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How many J-11B China has back in 2011? Around 72. How? China builds the engines -- WS-10. It is that simple.

MiG-29 said:

China`s problems are the engines plus the USAAF, Russians or even Japanese more or less know how many J-10s and J-11s are, they have satellites taking pictures and AWACS scanning the skies, and none of these sources is claiming 200 or 100 J-11Bs the Asian Military Review, "The AMR Regional Air Force Directory 2012," gives also different numbers.

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That does not make those sources correct. Quite the opposite, it means either those sources are outdated, or did not do their research. Furthermore, if actual satellite images were used in analysis, you would expect those two sources to be more consistent. By disagree with one another, it suggests that the two sources are complete guesswork.

The most obvious sign that those two sources lack credibility is the quoted number of J-11B being 18. This is considering the fact that there are 24 aircraft in one regiment, and that J-11B has already been observed to have more than one regiments. Anyone with adequate mathematical skills should realize the problem.

MiG-29 said:

Here what you have to see is not that i care what people think about me, no i do not care, because is not about me, it is about there is not a single opinion about numbers of J-11Bs and is likely the numbers are small since China still import engines

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Those imported engines have nothing to do with J-11B, since J-11B uses WS-10 engines and not Russian engines. Furthermore, data compiled from Scramble already shows there were already three regiments of 72 J-11Bs back in 2011. Even if no new J-11B is produced since then, there are still more than 18 J-11B as opposed to what sources used by Air Force Magazine have claimed.

MiG-29 said:

That is the whole issue we are discussing, since Su-35 has a ban for China to clone its 117 and even Al-31s.

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Whether Russia bans Su-35 export is irrelevant. China is not buying the aircraft, and that is the issue.

Engineer said:

How many J-11B China has back in 2011? Around 72. How? China builds the engines -- WS-10. It is that simple.


complete guesswork.



Whether Russia bans Su-35 export is irrelevant. China is not buying the aircraft, and that is the issue.

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complete guesswork.. yes you got the point, to know how many J-11Bs have been built you need to either work for Shenyang or Sukhoi or have an official release by Shenyang or PLAAF.

Grant`s work or RAND`s work are probably one of the most reliable guesses out there

see

China
n People’s Liberation Army Air Force
120 H-6, inc. 10 H-6U Tankers
380 J-7, crash in Shantou in Guangdong in Dec.
70 JH-7
100 J-8II
200 J-10
140+70 Ordered J-11A/B
76 Su 30MKK/MK2
95 Su-27SK/UBK
48 Ordered Su-35, $4 billion deal

It is clear not every one shares the same view

you can also read the rand report

MiG-29 said:

complete guesswork.. yes you got the point, to know how many J-11Bs have been built you need to either work for Shenyang or Sukhoi or have an official release by Shenyang or PLAAF.

Grant`s work or RAND`s work are probably one of the most reliable guesses out there

see

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China
n People’s Liberation Army Air Force
120 H-6, inc. 10 H-6U Tankers
380 J-7, crash in Shantou in Guangdong in Dec.
70 JH-7
100 J-8II
200 J-10
140+70 Ordered J-11A/B
76 Su 30MKK/MK2
95 Su-27SK/UBK
48 Ordered Su-35, $4 billion deal

It is clear not every one shares the same view

you can also read the rand report

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Those numbers have been debunked already. Guesswork is just that, a guess. Reliable guess is an oxymoron.


The tables in the image show the number of various fighters observed in China back in 2011, compiled from the site . Observed, as in somebody physically went beside the airbases, recorded the serial numbers of the aircraft there, and actually spent time counting the number of hangars, the number of planes, etc.

We can see how little credibility there is in your numbers just by the entry with 48 Su-35. There is no evidence of a signed deal, let alone aircraft having been delivered. In other words, the number of 48 came completely out of thin air, with no basis in reality whatsoever.

Some Russians really want China to purchase the Su-35. The issue is that China is not buying the aircraft. So in response, you see articles claiming Su-35 is banned from being exported citing issues on intellectual property rights. This is nothing more than smack of .

Engineer said:

Those numbers have been debunked already. Guesswork is just that, a guess. Reliable guess is an oxymoron..

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look i am not interested in make you agree with me, you can believe what ever you want and claim what ever you want, there world is filled with more people and different opinions yours is what you want to see, so no need to go further.

Believe whatever, Grant`s. opinion or RAND opinion is no less authoritative, see what you want to see, just remember the world is wider and there are more opinions

MiG-29 said:

look i am not interested in make you agree with me, you can believe what ever you want and claim what ever you want, there world is filled with more people and different opinions yours is what you want to see, so no need to go further.

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What you are doing here is making a faulty assumption that all opinions start out with the same reliability. Such assumption is faulty because some opinions start out with more basis in facts than others.

As an example, in modern days, there are still . Just because such opinion exists, that does not make it as truthful as the opinion that the Earth is round. As such, what you have advocated is wrong because there is no reason why all opinions should all be treated equally.

I believe in facts. When all the facts are not available, I believe in whatever that has more basis in facts. I believe most reasonable members on this forum strive for facts as well. So, it doesn't matter whether there are tens, hundreds, or thousands of opinions. If none of those opinions has basis in truth, then they are all garbage and there is no reason to accept them.

MiG-29 said:

Believe whatever, Grant`s. opinion or RAND opinion is no less authoritative, see what you want to see, just remember the world is wider and there are more opinions

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That's a fallacy called . Authority has no correlation with reliability of a statement. When China has at least three regiments of J-11B, then there are three regiments of J-11B regardless of who is making a different claim.

@ MiG-29 !

Take it that simple !

YES, we are all alloweed to have different opinopns, but if one member constantly uses sourses, which quote things, that have long been corrected or falsified by others it's still free to him to keep this opinion, but again do't wonder if anyone takes You no longer seriously.

Rand ... simply forget this piece of BS, we all know - and not only from posters of CHinese blogs, but from spotter images, sattelite images, and countless other sources - it differently.

By the way - and that's so typical for You - why on early does anyone who does not believe in the low number instantly is a supporter of the theory about 2000 J-11B ?? ... in fact it is You You tries to play foul and again what mekes You unreliable.

Even more You make false statements - J-10 powered by WS-10 ... make false assumption of low production rate, poor quality ... all based on a false statement and even after beeing coirrected You simply ignore these things, ignore facts - and that's the meaning of a debate or discussion ! - only when they don't fit Your opinion.


Please don't ignore that and give a statement ...

Again I beg You to make Your homeworks ... or to look for another forum like the Keymags !

Deino

Deino said:

@ MiG-29 !



Deino

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I will be utterely honest with you, my first post said it is hard to know the state of WS-15.
You are free to believe China is building WS-10s to the degree they are building J-11Bs at a rate of 12-20 a year.

I quoted sources that have not being proven wrong, in fact show me each and every J-11B made, even those 3 or four regiments.

The USAF, Russian air force the JASDF use satellites and AWACS, in fact the Japanese F-15s happen to encounter Chinese fighters very often.

Now do you think they do not calculate how many J-11s might face their F-15Js?


I am not underestimating the spotters, however you are over estimating them.

The Chinese jet engine industry still is uncapable of making several type of engines.

That is the reason i said J-10 is build in such low numbers. the US built 1000 F-16s a decade, in fact more than 4000 have been build.

The F-18 is similar.


China`s Flanker production is also closely watched by Sukhoi and Russia.

Grant`s guess is a good attempt, so good that unless you have official production numbers by shenyang hardly you can say she is wrong besides your hunch she is.

Is she the last word? no i do not think so, however i suggest you to see there are different assesments and are as valid as yours, you might be right, however i do not think you have official PLAAF or AVIC numbers for the J-11B production.

So if i a reader happen to have some level of skepticism is simply because i have seen not official releases by AVIC or the PLAAF for J-11B production numbers.

I have question. A regiment has 24 planes but are all 24 plane delivered on one go? If they are all are delivered in one shot then 72 planes would be available (1st 24 with AL-31 & 48 with WS-10 for the PLAAF). But is that the case? Does all Id'ed regiments have all their planes delivered at once or in batches of lets say 4, 8 etc?

Regarding the US, Russian and Japanese intelligence, well those are not available for everyday public, but I'd like to see any US or Japanese military intel reports on the actual PLAAF inventory for 2013 if anyone here has any (which I doubt). And neither RAND or AMR can leak such info. They can publish only if it is released for public consumption. If it has been released for public consumption then you people should be able to cite it. Actually, I am more than happy accept USAF or JASDF reports.

But, RAND quite clearly states in it FAQs :

Does everyone at RAND have a secret clearance?
No. Many people at RAND do not have a security clearance and never venture into the classified areas.

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The fact that Ms. Grant cited RAND & AMR (which have high variance between then) shows she is estimating or she knows the classified material but not cleared to publish them, hence the alternated source(s).

Either way, I don't think anyone outside the PLAAF/SAC or the foriegn intelligence services knows the ACTUAL value.

I dont know if this has been posted but the russian arms export, rosoboronexport, says that a deal to sell su-35 to china and another deal to sell ordnance for it will get signed in 2014.



rosoboronexport is an official entity. I think this definitely lends more credibility to the rumours that china will buy su-35.

kroko said:

I dont know if this has been posted but the russian arms export, rosoboronexport, says that a deal to sell su-35 to china and another deal to sell ordnance for it will get signed in 2014.

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rosoboronexport is an official entity. I think this definitely lends more credibility to the rumours that china will buy su-35.

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This seems to go against the denial reported here

However, according to Defense News—as well as Russian media outlets—the deal may have never taken in the first place. The Defense News report cites Vasiliy Kashin, a military specialist from the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, as saying that “The Kremlin is officially denying even discussing arms trade during Xi’s visit.” Defense News later quotes the same source as saying that, “In Russia-China relations, specific arms trade contracts are almost never discussed by the top leaders, just the general approaches.”

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