Chinese purchase of Su-35

Engineer said:

Considering the Russians have trouble getting the Lada working and that the Yuan submarines are working perfectly for China, your theory that China wants Lada submarines is even more ridiculous than the theory on the Su-35 deal.

China does not operate a charity, and that is the precise reason that China hasn't have a major deal with Russia for a decade. In other words, China isn't going to spend money on useless items, or more money than they worth on useful items, just to make Putin look good to his domestic audience.

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to be fair we really don't know much about Lada but I think it is safe to assume it is a much more capable sub than the Yuan.

luhai said:

Actually the 956EMs are signed in 2002 and delivered in 2005 and 2006, which around the same time 052B(L:2002, C:2004 and 052C(L:2003, C:2005) launch and commission. If we treat 956EM as Su-35, 052B as J-16 and 052C as J-20. They they have roughly the same timeline.

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The 956EM also became white elephants in Chinese Navy and are not used anywhere as often as Chinese vessels. Your example only highlights the fact that Chinese domestic industries are perfectly capable of meeting the military's requirements, and that there is no need for Russian systems to serve as a backup.

Curious George said:

Firstly please try to keep it civil, and secondly please stop trying to put words in my mouth, I never even hinted that an Su-35 deal would somehow save the world, I only said that if it turns out to be true then I can see the motivations for it (ie China taking a not very favorable to itself deal to make Putin/Russia look good to his domestic audience so he can better sell future China-Russia cooperation to his people). I can see the logic of China taking a "bad deal" now so that in the future if China gets a more favorable deal than Russia, Putin can just tell any objectors on his end that in the last deal with China it was China that had the unfavorable deal etc.

Also like you said, China hasn't had a major deal with Russia for a decade, so maybe this supposed Su35 deal is the only way to get the ball rolling for future sales of stuff that China does actually want. It wouldn't be the first time someone has bought something they don't want simply to gain access to what they do want (in this case its probably the submarines that are the real target of the deal, as there is co-production involved, with 2 Subs apparently being built in Russia and 2 in China)

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Firstly, I don't see when and where I had been uncivil. If I have, the moderators will deal with me. Secondly, you keep going back to the same argument that China has to suffer a loss in order to gain favor from the Russians. And here you go at it again by saying "China taking a "bad deal" now so that in the future if China gets a more favorable deal than Russia, Putin can just tell any objectors on his end that in the last deal with China it was China that had the unfavorable deal etc." Why should China have to take a bad deal? Why can't the Russians take a bad deal? Shouldn't the Russians have to worry about angering the Chinese people by forcing China into a bad deal? Why should China always have to make sacrifices? Why can't the Russians do that? International geopolitics does not go one way only. Why can't the Russians take a bad deal for now in order to gain favors from the Chinese?

It is this old mentality that I am having a big problem with. China had always been seen as being pushed to the corner and had no way out. China had to suffer. Blah blah blah. Additionally, in your argument, China is always on the receiving end of things. "China has to gain favor of the Russians..." "China has to get its foot in the door with the Russians..." "Russians will allow China to join some of its projects..." This kind of thinking is based on this inferiority syndrome: China is weak and is always on the inferior side. Thus, China would always have to concede first and back off first in any kind of stand-off or negotiation with anybody. And China has to wait for others to give them stuff and be appreciative about it, no matter how bad the deal is. Well, the fact is China is no longer weak. China is now in a situation where it no longer has to back off first. China has enough cards in its hands to deal with anybody on an equal footing. And economically, China holds so many cards that other nations might have no choice but to concede first. And China is now the giving one. Haven't you noticed that whenever Chinese leaders visit foreign countries, they bring business delegations with them and sign deals and economic packages with those visited nations. It's now China who is doing the giving and others waiting to receive. So with that in mind, I ask again: Why can't the Russians take a bad deal for now in order to gain favors from the Chinese?

And geopolitically, no one will simply do someone a favor because you have taken a "bad deal" for them. If a potential new deal damages Russia's core interests, Russia will not yield no matter how many bad deals China has taken from them. And on the other hand, if it benefits them, they will take the deal no matter how much they previously had hated you. China formed an alliance with the US in the 70's despite ideological differences and so much bad blood between themselves and the US. Heck, China lost over 1 million troops in a war against the US not too long before that alliance. That did not prevent China from forming an alliance with the US because such alliance benefited and still benefits China greatly.

So all in all, Russia will not simply sign a deal damaging to them because China took a bad deal. And Russia will sign a beneficial deal even if China has somehow mistreated them in the past. So what is the point of China taking a bad deal again?

kwaigonegin said:

to be fair we really don't know much about Lada but I think it is safe to assume it is a much more capable sub than the Yuan.

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We don't know much about the Lada, but we do know that the Lada is only in prototype stage and is also rejected by the Russian Navy. The Yuan is much more capable in comparison, since the Yuan is produced in numbers and is serving within the Chinese Navy.

Curious George said:

Just because China can make things themeselves doesn't mean they can't buy some stuff from Russia, especially if the true aim is to foster future China-Russia cooperation. Also, with China's track record of reverse engineering Russian technology, you can't be surprised that Russia isn't offering its best stuff to China right away. Maybe in a few years when trust is formed (ie no recently sold Russian tech is reverse engineered), Russia will be willing to offer China its best stuff and maybe even do a few joint projects together with China (such as Plasma Stealth technology).

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Russia only offers its best technologies to countries that are backward with technologies, since backward countries have no capability to reverse engineer even when they are given the full plans. Russia subconsciously sees China as a competitor, and that is the precise reason why Russia is so weary of Chinese reverse engineering. The fact that China is seen as a competitor means it is already an equal peer in Russia's eyes, whether Russians publicly admit it or not.

So being an equal, China is perfectly capable of producing a lot of the best things that Russia can make, just as Russia is capable of producing a lot of the best things that China can make. For China, this means there is little need for China to buy things from Russia. What Russia currently is doing is try to push inferior technologies to China, which China has absolutely no need at all. Without a need, there is no reason to buy, and that's just the way reality works.

The obstacle to future China-Russia cooperation doesn't come from China, but from Russia. Russia needs to step down from its pedestal and lose its false sense of superiority. Right now, Russian big-ticket items are losing competitiveness rapidly and sales of those items are dwindling. If Russia doesn't correct its attitude soon, then it will fall behind China and will have nothing to offer for cooperation in a few years time.

Only a technical note:
It has been a custom in several ( by now all ? ) countries to design the electronic systems as separate modules, so you can swap out a module if you have developed an improved version. Similarly you can swap out communication modules to adapt a weapon system to to networking system of another country. So in that respect Su-35 shouldn't be handicapped.

Engineer said:

We don't know much about the Lada, but we do know that the Lada is only in prototype stage and is also rejected by the Russian Navy. The Yuan is much more capable in comparison, since the Yuan is produced in numbers and is serving within the Chinese Navy.

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not true.. the Russian Navy has since revert on that initial decision and has since accepted the Lada and construction has resume.

delft said:

Only a technical note:
It has been a custom in several ( by now all ? ) countries to design the electronic systems as separate modules, so you can swap out a module if you have developed an improved version. Similarly you can swap out communication modules to adapt a weapon system to to networking system of another country. So in that respect Su-35 shouldn't be handicapped.

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That would only apply if both countries consciously planned to have an unified common standard for equipment and subsystems and wrote software that can use either hardware configuration just as efficiently. All you have to do is look at the commercial sector, with all the different competing standards for things like wifi and 3/4G or even just the chargers for mobile phones and laptops to see how unlikely it would be that equipment and software would be easily compatable and interchangeable without having been designed to be so, and even then, when things are designed to network seamlessly, a lot of the time issues crop up that throws a wrench in things. The kind of universal plug and play compatibility between systems from different countries is only something weapons designers can dream of right now.

With modern avionics relaying more and more on sensor fusion, the software needs all the subsystems to work together as one whole to be at its most effective. Switching out individual parts for more capable version would mean very little if the underlying software cannot use the new kit with the other systems as effectively. So while you might have parts that are better, the sum of those parts might be worse than a system with slightly worse individual subsystems and components but better software and system integration.

If this sale seem so illogical to many, it's because military sale were not meant to make a profit. It's for strategic planning or other political reasons. Look at the U.S. military sales to Israel. The U.S. gives Israel $ 3 billion worth of military weapons(new and advanced) FREE of charge every year. On the other hand, the U.S. (along with UK and France) would not sell a single bullet to China.

kwaigonegin said:

not true.. the Russian Navy has since revert on that initial decision and has since accepted the Lada and construction has resume.

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That doesn't invalidate anything I have said. The fact that the project has to be resumed means the project was rejected before. Meanwhile, the Yuan is already deployed in numbers as can be seen . Clearly, the latter being a successful project is more capable than an unsuccessful one.