Chinese purchase of Su-35

SampanViking said:

Well clearly Beijing sees the deal as desirable and I can see a variety of reasons that build the final decision.

For those who still doubt the genuine nature of the agreement, please note all that any officials on either side are denying is that the deal is signed, not that a deal exists and is on the table.

I am somewhat disappointed by the disparaging attitude of some posters to Russian Military Technology. China may well be pulling ahead in many critical areas, but they are still behind in others and if these are areas; system, subsystem, production techniques etc, which China can catch up from this purchase, then I say fine, why bother trying to reinvent wheels that others have found perfectly good and working solutions too and save all the time and money.

I also suspect time is a new critical factor in all this as the security situation in the Pacific East is undoubtedly deteriorating, with the re-pivot upsetting the strategic balance. In that sense a show of greater solidarity between the two Asian powers sends a powerful signal to the region as to be under no illusions or make serious strategic miscalculations.

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Good post as usual, but how does any of that apply to the alleged Su35 deal?

I am all for buying Russian subsystems and components when it makes sense, and the Chinese obviously feel the same. That is why there is a lot of co-operation on things like missile seeker technology, and also why China was still making big AL31FN orders and continuing to equip its J10s with Russian engines even when the WS10A seems to have shaken its earlier issues and are now in full production.

If Russia wants to deepen and broaden its military and scientific collaboration with China and start working on joint ventures where both sides bring their respective strengths and advantages to the table and make a better product than either could on their own, fantastic. But buying two dozen Su35 does none of that.

24 Su35s would not have a meaningful impact in terms of combat capabilities, and since there is no local assembly, there isn't likely to be much technology transfer to benefit China. RE takes time, so by the time China has REed stuff from the Su35, odds are the local systems being developed for the likes of the J10B, J31 and J20 would have matured and proven to be superior to whatever the Su35 had. So I even question just how much the Su35 has that is better that what China is making or developing itself.

The problem is the rumoured Su35 deal does not herald a new kind of co-operation and joint effort, but more like a big fat bone that China is tossing the Russian arms industry at a time when they are increaslingly struggling to interest any with their wares and offerings. In terms of combat capabilities or new technologies, the Su35 offers dubious benefits for China.

Quite simply, its a crappy deal for China, and the main reason China would go through with it is to do the Russians a solid.

SampanViking said:

Well clearly Beijing sees the deal as desirable and I can see a variety of reasons that build the final decision.

For those who still doubt the genuine nature of the agreement, please note all that any officials on either side are denying is that the deal is signed, not that a deal exists and is on the table.

I am somewhat disappointed by the disparaging attitude of some posters to Russian Military Technology. China may well be pulling ahead in many critical areas, but they are still behind in others and if these are areas; system, subsystem, production techniques etc, which China can catch up from this purchase, then I say fine, why bother trying to reinvent wheels that others have found perfectly good and working solutions too and save all the time and money.

I also suspect time is a new critical factor in all this as the security situation in the Pacific East is undoubtedly deteriorating, with the re-pivot upsetting the strategic balance. In that sense a show of greater solidarity between the two Asian powers sends a powerful signal to the region as to be under no illusions or make serious strategic miscalculations.

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May I know what system and subsystem beside aero engine do China needs from Russia?

The fact, China and Russia has not condcuted any major arm deal of complete weapon system for the past 10 years speaks for itself.

Rather its you who can't accept the advancement of China. Buy a complete weapon system like Su-35 just for the engine she needed is mockery of China who needs to restore such way to secure the engine she needs?

Neither side has denied the deal but they neither agree such agreement has already come to conclusion?

Unless the Russian agree to use or make Su-35 compatible with Chinese datalink or able to program it to fire Chinese ammunition. Other than that, the whole plane besides the engine is a complete waste of money.

Don't bother asking me for details as I am neither in the loop, an expert or psychic. There is however the single, central and undeniable fact that if there was nothing in the deal for Beijing, they would not be entertaining any such.

My guess is that this deal contains things that they want and takne on the best terms they can get. If this means that they have to take a lot of stuff they do not want, then they are getting things that they want very badly indeed at a cost that they still find acceptable.

As stated previously, I can theorise at length over possible reasons, technical, economic and Geo-strategic, but they are only theories in the absence of hard fact. I would like to see a little more forensic examination of what spokespeople are actually saying in order to identify what both sides are really looking for from their side of this business.

AeroEngineer said:

Correct, but there are other things China want from Russia as I have mentioned:

1. 117S engine, an interim solution for J-20A. China want J-20A goes into IOC by 2016, and the best and aviable engine will be 117S !! We all know that WS-15 will not be ready until 2018 the earilest !!
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Good grief, still going on about buying Su35 to get 117S.
Again, they brought it to Zhuhai last year offering to sale & the Russian guy interviewed said China wasn't interested.

As for some concern of perceived disparaging remarks made of Russian tech.
The fact is Su35 has zero orders, losing repeatedly in international competitions.
Somehow, I am to believe China, which has not 1 but 2 stealth projects ongoing, wants it ? I'll believe it when I see it.

But the main reason I think it has more to do with the conduct of some from the Russian media & arms industry which is little different from that of used car salesmen of talking big but failing to deliver time & again with this Su35 & past reported 'deals'. These guys even tried to pre-empt any loss of face of future non-deal by implying any lack of deals is due to Russia's reluctance to let China get hold of their super-duper tech. You don't get much more pathetic behavior in any business dealings than this.

SinoSoldier said:

Don't you think that things like gas deals and energy investments are a much more significant testimony to "friendship" than a few fighters that Russia fears some parts of which might be reverse engineered? One provides significant and long term economic advantages for Russia while the other might not, especially when they'll be on par with J-11B.

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I was going to say the same thing.. everyone here is thinking about China buying military equipment to foster better Sino-Russia relationships but everyone here has seemed to forget trades and purchases made on the civilian front, corporate front or other non military acquisitions which are worth many many more times than any Lada or SU-35 deals.

I'm sure in the bigger picture Russia/Chinese trade will be just fine wheater China buys SU-35s from Rosoboronexport or not.

SampanViking said:

Don't bother asking me for details as I am neither in the loop, an expert or psychic. There is however the single, central and undeniable fact that if there was nothing in the deal for Beijing, they would not be entertaining any such.

My guess is that this deal contains things that they want and takne on the best terms they can get. If this means that they have to take a lot of stuff they do not want, then they are getting things that they want very badly indeed at a cost that they still find acceptable.

As stated previously, I can theorise at length over possible reasons, technical, economic and Geo-strategic, but they are only theories in the absence of hard fact. I would like to see a little more forensic examination of what spokespeople are actually saying in order to identify what both sides are really looking for from their side of this business.

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Well I would not count those chickens just yet given how many times this deal has been reported as 'signed' or 'done' in the past and nothing has happened.

Right now, the only official word on the deal by anyone actually involved is a flat denial. Just because loads of media organisations have jumped on the band wagon this time does not in itself make the claim more credible since they are all quoting the same source.

Until the time the Chinese government itself announces a deal has been made, I will remain skeptical for reasons already well established.

Curious George said:

That's just the kind of attitude that has to be broken in order to move things along (as if both sides shared that view then nothing will get done), if this deal does turn out to be true then China has taken the first step, and it is then up to Russia to reciprocate on a future deal. If however Russia keeps being "takers" and not take turns at being "givers" then I would agree with you the China should be more tough on future Russian deals. However at this stage I feel that one side has to be the one to "take the high road", and why can't that side be China?

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China has taken the high road already, by not making any large deal with Russia ever since the IL-76 fiasco. Even though China desperately needs transport aircraft, the country has not made concession to the Russians. China's response would be no different to deals where China perceives to receive no benefit.

At the end of the day, China is moving forward while Russia is not. That means China will always end up to be able to produce things it wants. Each time China makes an achievement, Russia loses one potential deal. It would be wise for Russia to realize that.

AeroEngineer said:

Correct, but there are other things China want from Russia as I have mentioned:

1. 117S engine, an interim solution for J-20A. China want J-20A goes into IOC by 2016, and the best and aviable engine will be 117S !! We all know that WS-15 will not be ready until 2018 the earilest !!

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J-20's interim engine is the AL-31. That is the engine that is currently undergoing tests with the J-20 and that the engineers have full confidence in. That is the best and available engine, not the 117S.

A PLAAF general already stated that the expected induction year for J-20 is around 2018. Taking in account of at least three years of integrated flight tests, the soonest one can see J-20 with WS-15 engines would be 2015. An order of 117S today will take at least a year to make the first delivery, and puts the delivery time in 2014. That isn't much sooner than when WS-15 is expected to be ready, which would mean getting the 117S for J-20 would be a wasted effort.

Flight test hours are extremely valuable, anot to be wasted on generating results that will get immediately overturned. So, the only other engine to go on the J-20 will be the WS-15.

AeroEngineer said:

2. S-400. China clearly wants it. But Russia is not willing to sell it at least not NOW unless China buys Su-35.

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I'm not sure about this. What technologies are there in S-400 that China doesn't have? China can perform exo-atmospheric interception. Can S-400 do that?

AeroEngineer said:

3. New IL-476 and IL-78M tankers.

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Nope. China does not want the IL-476 and is going for used IL-76 from former Soviet states instead. China also got the Y-20 into the air recently, and is about to achieve self sufficiency in transport aircraft.

AeroEngineer said:

Buying 24 Su-35, and China unlock the doors for all these systems. Why NOT ???

If not, then :

1. China use WS-10A or AL-31FN for J-20A, it will work, but J-20A will not be as good when fitted with 117S !!
2. Russia eventually sell S-400, but until 2017. China wants S-400 NOW so that by 2016 it can use it against Taiwan !
3. China has Y-20, but Y-20 will not be ready until 2017 the earilest !! Getting some new IL-476 and convert them into brand new KJ-2000. KJ-2000 and IL-78M are something China really needs !!

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Now, finially. I too oppose the idea of buying Su-35. It is utterly useless !!

However, Russia is not letting go other systems that China wants unless China buys some Su-35. Russia has already back down from 48 to just 24. How much more do you exptect Russia to back down !!

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See above.

AeroEngineer said:

Correct, but there are other things China want from Russia as I have mentioned:

1. 117S engine, an interim solution for J-20A. China want J-20A goes into IOC by 2016, and the best and aviable engine will be 117S !! We all know that WS-15 will not be ready until 2018 the earilest !!

2. S-400. China clearly wants it. But Russia is not willing to sell it at least not NOW unless China buys Su-35.

3. New IL-476 and IL-78M tankers.


Buying 24 Su-35, and China unlock the doors for all these systems. Why NOT ???

If not, then :

1. China use WS-10A or AL-31FN for J-20A, it will work, but J-20A will not be as good when fitted with 117S !!
2. Russia eventually sell S-400, but until 2017. China wants S-400 NOW so that by 2016 it can use it against Taiwan !
3. China has Y-20, but Y-20 will not be ready until 2017 the earilest !! Getting some new IL-476 and convert them into brand new KJ-2000. KJ-2000 and IL-78M are something China really needs !!

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Now, finially. I too oppose the idea of buying Su-35. It is utterly useless !!

However, Russia is not letting go other systems that China wants unless China buys some Su-35. Russia has already back down from 48 to just 24. How much more do you exptect Russia to back down !!

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1. The 117S engine will only provide a temporary solution, meaning that any other engine can be used for that. Why not put a WS-10 on the J-20, knowing fully well that it will soon be replaced? The WS-15 core made its first run already, meaning that it will enter service sooner than we would expect it to be completed.

2. The HQ-26 and HQ-8 are being tested as of now. There is definitely no need for the S-400 which lacks true anti ballistic capabilities.

3. It would take time for the large aircraft to be completed. By that time China would have deployed the Y-20 and any future tanker variants in small numbers, even if the WS-20 hasn't seen completion.

SinoSoldier said:

2. The HQ-26 and HQ-8 are being tested as of now. There is definitely no need for the S-400 which lacks true anti ballistic capabilities.

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You can't compare S-400 with HQ-26. HQ-26 is supposed to be a SM-3 class missile (HQ-8 is supposed to be a surface-to-air ARM specially designed to deal with AWACS aircraft ???)