Chinese purchase of Su-35

Curious George

New Member
Fostering future China-Russia cooperation is not enough reason to buy Su-35.

Maybe not, but if its the only way to get the foot in the door for future China-Russia industro-military complex cooperation then its a small price to pay even if China does take a hit in the short term. Would you rather Russia keep on going to India to fund their defense companies and bring Russia and India closer together instead of Russia and China?


You sound like Russia would be doing China a huge favor by inviting China to join some projects. "Oh, if you are nice, I'll give you a few candy..." No, China is no longer the little brother. Russia invited China to join the PAK FA-50 program and China declined.

Actually I think that it is China that would be doing Russia a big favor. As I see it China is basically throwing Russia a bone if they do indeed buy the Su35's. It's more like "We don't really need it, but we don't want your company to go out of business since no one's really buying their products, so we'll take 6... not enough? OK make it 24 then".
 

vesicles

Colonel
Maybe not, but if its the only way to get the foot in the door for future China-Russia industro-military complex cooperation then its a small price to pay even if China does take a hit in the short term. Would you rather Russia keep on going to India to fund their defense companies and bring Russia and India closer together instead of Russia and China?




Actually I think that it is China that would be doing Russia a big favor. As I see it China is basically throwing Russia a bone if they do indeed buy the Su35's. It's more like "We don't really need it, but we don't want your company to go out of business since no one's really buying their products, so we'll take 6... not enough? OK make it 24 then".

Again, you still have the mentality that China desperately needs Russia's help. So desperate that China would actually need to sacrifice billions just to "get the foot in the door". You can say that is not what you mean, but the way you phrase your sentence exclaim that out and clear. The fact, however, is that China does not need Russia for anything. China does not need to get its foot in the door with Russia for anything. Russia has never been a major market of Chinese products. And Russia will not be a major market for some time in the near future because of its economic issues. Even the US and the EU are in a much weaker position when dealing with China. There was news about London officials setting up fancy parties specifically for Chinese business delegations during the London Olympic last year while ignoring business delegations from EU and the US.

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Again, China is now the one holding all the cards. If anything, Russia should be the one making sacrifices in order to get its foot in the door for future collaboration with China.

If China wants to throw a bone to the Russians, they do it using civilian contracts. This way, China can benefit too. the goal of China, or any nation, is to maximize its own interests. China will not throw away a bone for nothing, especially now that China is in a position to benefit greatly from any deal it signs with anybody.

It's more like "We don't really need it, but we don't want your company to go out of business since no one's really buying their products, so we'll take 6... not enough? OK make it 24 then".

But why??? China is not Red Cross and is not in the business of saving other businesses, let alone other govn'ts. Why would China care about Russian weapon industry. If possible, China would be more than happy to see one less potential enemy at its doorstep.
 
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jobjed

Captain
Maybe not, but if its the only way to get the foot in the door for future China-Russia industro-military complex cooperation then its a small price to pay even if China does take a hit in the short term. Would you rather Russia keep on going to India to fund their defense companies and bring Russia and India closer together instead of Russia and China?

If India wants to continue devoting money to short term gains and not long term investment, then by all means, let them. Russia has no consideration for the strategic interests of China, if India comes to them with money and offers to buy weapons, Russia will sell regardless of how close they are with China. Buying the 24 Su-35s would do nothing to deter India from further acquiring advanced Russian weapons and would instead be throwing money away.
Actually I think that it is China that would be doing Russia a big favor. As I see it China is basically throwing Russia a bone if they do indeed buy the Su35's. It's more like "We don't really need it, but we don't want your company to go out of business since no one's really buying their products, so we'll take 6... not enough? OK make it 24 then".

Exactly, China would be doing Russia a big favour FOR NO REASON AT ALL. Believe it or not, Russia is a strategic concern to China, maybe not as much as some other neighbours, but as long as Russia exists, they will be viewed as a potential enemy just like China is viewed as a potential enemy by everyone. It's called just-in-case. Why would you fund a potential enemy for absolutely no reason and for no benefit to yourself? And for your information, Sukhoi is not even close to going out of business; the Su-35 is but a small portion of their business.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Buying Su-35s is not going to keep India at bay as if Russia would see China as a preferred client political or economical. Russia sold better stuff and at a cheaper cost to India when China was buying fighters before. These days they sell them to Vietnam. They sell to China's rivals without any political regard to China

If there is a deal it is probably going to be a part of greater package because there's more important hardware Russia has that China would be more interested in. It will be politically motivated because they need someone to buy Su-35s while so far there's no one. All these stories smell of desperation on Russia's part. The Russian government probably even came out with that statement confirming the rumors of the sales was a lie as a good will gesture to Xi Jinpeng after his visit. I will go with my original notion that everything said before goes to promoting Russian arms and scaring off countries from buying from China. It just came out that China is the 5th largest arms exporter. Those sales obviously are encroaching onto what was traditionally Russian territory. The rise in China exporting arms I bet did little to US and Europeans sales. It's not like Russia is making no money from China. It's just not in the arms sector. And where is most of the noise about China in Russia coming from? And why is the West grabbing on to this story? Because they see it as an indictment against China's military programs especially stealth fighters which they use to see as their monopoly. Just read Western military blogs about the J-20s rail launcher. In the comments you can see people just try to spin how it's a negative for China. The blog linked in Terran Empire's post in the J-20 thread about the rail launcher... the blogger said himself that the Pentagon should stop seeing China as just copying everything. Why? Because it's probably making the US complacent. But if you see what readers are commenting, it's of course all about ego and the spin it's a negative.

Plus I don't know why people think just because all these separate news sources are reporting it, there must be legitimacy. They're all feeding off another news source. Who thinks the media all go investigating this? People want to believe they all did the investigation and found the same thing. It's pretty stupid just like when I see the news media quote wikileaks as if what's there is the absolute truth. It's just the opinion written by a US diplomat. And what information am I talking about from wikileaks they see as the absolute truth? All the negative stuff about China. Then you have to ask why something that exposes China as bad be hidden as classified or top secret by the US government and not exposed to smear China? A lot of these classified documents are just to hide and protect those who wrote them. Do you think Australian former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd who touts his connections to China wanted it to be known that he told Hillary Clinton that the US might have to militarily strike China if China doesn't overall change to serve the West's interests. That kind of thinking by the Soviet Union towards the West is what started the Cold War.
 
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Thornblade

New Member
IF the 24 Su-35 deal is indeed real, then, it is more than likely to be a stop-gap filler until J-20/J-XX program are matured enough, 'cos frankly, there just isn't much tech gain from importing Su-35 over existing J-11B/J-16 technology; besides, the Russian fighters can't handle Chinese missiles/pods, which needs further integration process.

Although the extra numbers would be beneficial towards modernising the existing fleet, as there a lot of old J7/J8/Su-27SK are being phasing out, and also that newer radar helps a bit. Russian WANTS the Chinese to buy Su-35, so they can break the ice and sell it to other traditional clients like Algeria, India, Venezuela, Vietnam, etc. And use these money to further fund their T-50/PAK FA project.

However, even with this theory, which personally I have doubts with, isn't without flaws. How soon can the Russian deliver these aircraft? As the Russian are claiming that their customers pre-orders are well into the next 10-15 years, (or in other words, their current production capabilities are limited). If this deal drags on forever, then price hike are inevitable. (remember the INS Vikramaditya affair?) And even with the delivery date reasonably shortened to 6-7 years, by the end of this decade/early 2020s, China may well have matured J-20/J-31 enough and made them into full production; and by that time, the Chinese Flanker series(J-11B/J-16) will have already been further developed to match existing Su-35 capabilities and possibly surpass it. Okay Su-35 will probably have further improvements as well, but so will the price...

Which, comes down to the conclusion... There is no technological benefit to get Su-35 if it is being delivered after middle of 2020s, none, zilch. If, let's say a deal is made so the delivery of Su-35 are beginning in 2014-2016 time frame, then the additional numbers would help, a bit.
 

Geographer

Junior Member
International arms deals are rarely about the merits of the weapon systems. They are more about the relationships between national governments and militaries. The more I think about this purchase of 24 Su-35s and 4 Amur-class submarines, the more I think it must be to solidify the strategic relationship between China and Russia. I think China wants to develop a stronger relationship with Russia and arms deals are a great way to do that.

Why not a civilian purchase? Well, what big ticket product does the Russian civil industry have that China could possibly want? Airplanes? Heck no, Russian airplanes suck compared to Boeing and Airbus planes. Plus China is trying hard to develop its own jetliner.

Military purchases are significant because they represent great trust between governments. The U.S. will allow Boeing to sell a 787 to just about anyone in the world, but the U.S. has very strict controls on exporting the F-35 and F-22.

It's possible that China could use the Su-35s as a stop-gap air defense plane, but isn't the J-11B almost as good? And China has more than 100 of them. It's not like the 1990s when China's military was embarrassingly outdated and needed Russian planes, ships, submarines, missiles, you name it. The J-20 is probably three to four years from entering service, and the Su-35s won't be delivered for a year, meaning there is only a hypothetical 2-3 year gap in Chinese air defenses that the Su-35s could fill. It doesn't make much sense to me.

The submarines, on the other hand, do make some sense. We've had very little information about the state of China's submarine development. It's possible China isn't making much progress in that area. Submarines are a tricky part of engineering quite different from surface ships. The Russians probably still have a big advantage in this area, if only because of their decades of experience operating submarines. China might want to buy some Russian subs just to get an idea of what Russia's technological level is at. The Amur class would be useful to practice against.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
If it was mainly for fostering better relations, there are plenty of things that would be far more useful to China rather than Su35s. Systems like the S400, Mi28 or Ka52 attack helos, especially the navsal variants, would all be far more useful for China than the Su35 ever will be.

But increasingly, the balance of power is reversing, and there are more and more things that China makes which would be very useful to the Russians. Already, Russian firms are sourcing more and more important components and subsystems from China because they are both better and cheaper than what the Russians can make themselves, and it is mainly Russian pride that is preventing the purchase of entire systems and platforms.

An area where China clearly ahead of Russia is in the field of UAV and UCAV. The Russians had to buy Israeli UAV not long ago, and once the massive array of experimental UAVs China is working on right now start entering service, there will be plenty that would be useful for the Russians, especially in Chechnya.

Chinese shipbuilding is also head and shoulders beyond what the Russians can manage in pretty much every measurable field. It would make a lot of sense for the two to collaborate on things like LPD, LHD and carrier designs to come up with a common hull that China can build on time and on budget, into which both can install their own sensors and weapons. If Russia wants to field a new carrier before the next decade, their best bet would be to get the Chinese to build one for them.

Similar thing with carrier aircraft. The J15 is at least a generation ahead of the Su33s the Russians currently field, and their size offers inherent advantages over the Mig29/35s the Russian navy are planning to get. And tbh, I think one of, if not the biggest reasons for the Russian navy choosing the Mig is the fact that it is in production and the Indians had already paid for the modernisation. Had China gone with the Russian Su33 offer, I am pretty confident the Russian navy would have piggybacked on that deal and bought new build Su33s instead.

The J31 looks like a perfect candidate for developing into a carrier borne fifth gen, and China is also working on carrier based AWACS/AEW and almost certainly carrier borne tankers in the near future. All of these planes would be of much use to the Russians.

If you cast your eyes to the future, there is indeed much scope for Sino-Russian military co-operation, but almost all of that involves the Russians buying into Chinese projects, not the other way around, and that is the biggest obstacle to closer military collaboration between the two. There is currently no external threat grave enough to get the Russians to swallow their pride and buy Chinese weapons, and the Russians simply lack anything good enough to tempt the Chinese to want to buy.

Cost is a factor, and yes pride too, as I am sure the Chinese have had more than enough of the brainless charge that all they can do is copy, but so are performance factors. Why would the PLA want to spend more money buying a worse platform? Even if the performance of Russian platforms are on par or even slight better than what China can make themselves, the different munitions, operating frequencies and often, the languages of the Russian systems present problems and shortcomings that will usually more than outweighs what little performance advantage they might have.

Logistics wins wars as surely as soldiers and weapons, that old adage is as true today as it has ever been. Adding a token sized force of Russian system would just complicate logistics for very little actual capability gain.

On the modern nerworked battlefield, you either win as a unit or die as an individual. How well does anyone expect Su35s to be able to network with all the other Chinese assets that would be operating in a war zone? I seriously doubt that the Su35s would even be able to datalink with other Chinese assets, never mind more high level things like co-operative engagement or taking advantage of friendly EW assets etc.

For those Su35s to be of much use, the Chinese would either need the source codes to fully integrate them with other Chinese networks and weapons, or strip out much of the radar and avionics and replace them with Chinese kit. Either option will take time and money to implement, which again makes it seems far fetched that China would bother for so few aircraft. Especially since the Russians would almost certainly never share the Su35's source codes, but if you strip out the radar and avionics and replace them with Chinese stuff, you end up with something a hell of a lot like a J11B with overcharged engines. Far better to just put better engines in J11Bs.

The days of China buying Russian arms are over, if they two are to develop deeper military ties, both must accept this new reality and make the most of it. But that almost certainly means Russia would become the junior partner and end up buying Chinese designed and manufactured systems enhanced with Russian components and subsystems, but that is just something they are not ready to stomach right now.
 

Curious George

New Member
Again, you still have the mentality that China desperately needs Russia's help. So desperate that China would actually need to sacrifice billions just to "get the foot in the door". You can say that is not what you mean, but the way you phrase your sentence exclaim that out and clear. The fact, however, is that China does not need Russia for anything. China does not need to get its foot in the door with Russia for anything.

Actually I don't think China needs Russia's help, but China doesn't have to be a hermit and ignore other countries just becuase it can. The last time China had that attitude, it lead to the "100 years of humiliation". If Russia doesn't have a stake with China, or if it has a bigger stake with someone else (like India for instance), then it is less likely that Russia will support China's interests in the future if it comes time for Russia to "take a hit" for China if China didn't "take a hit" for Russia in the past (which this Su35 deal seems to be if its true, as it really doesn't offer China any advantages).

At this stage in the China-Russia relationship, if China doesn't end up being the losing side in this Su35 deal then they are going to have to do it somewhere else (maybe an oil deal), as China can not be seen to be "always winning" as that wouldn't play well with Russia's domestic audience as much as Russia always having the better deal wouldn't play well with Chinese audiences. This is called geopolitics, and China has to play it or it will be left isolated from the rest of the world, or at the very least left with no true friends in the world.
 
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leibowitz

Junior Member
If it was mainly for fostering better relations, there are plenty of things that would be far more useful to China rather than Su35s. Systems like the S400, Mi28 or Ka52 attack helos, especially the navsal variants, would all be far more useful for China than the Su35 ever will be.

But increasingly, the balance of power is reversing, and there are more and more things that China makes which would be very useful to the Russians. Already, Russian firms are sourcing more and more important components and subsystems from China because they are both better and cheaper than what the Russians can make themselves, and it is mainly Russian pride that is preventing the purchase of entire systems and platforms.

An area where China clearly ahead of Russia is in the field of UAV and UCAV. The Russians had to buy Israeli UAV not long ago, and once the massive array of experimental UAVs China is working on right now start entering service, there will be plenty that would be useful for the Russians, especially in Chechnya.

Chinese shipbuilding is also head and shoulders beyond what the Russians can manage in pretty much every measurable field. It would make a lot of sense for the two to collaborate on things like LPD, LHD and carrier designs to come up with a common hull that China can build on time and on budget, into which both can install their own sensors and weapons. If Russia wants to field a new carrier before the next decade, their best bet would be to get the Chinese to build one for them.

Similar thing with carrier aircraft. The J15 is at least a generation ahead of the Su33s the Russians currently field, and their size offers inherent advantages over the Mig29/35s the Russian navy are planning to get. And tbh, I think one of, if not the biggest reasons for the Russian navy choosing the Mig is the fact that it is in production and the Indians had already paid for the modernisation. Had China gone with the Russian Su33 offer, I am pretty confident the Russian navy would have piggybacked on that deal and bought new build Su33s instead.

The J31 looks like a perfect candidate for developing into a carrier borne fifth gen, and China is also working on carrier based AWACS/AEW and almost certainly carrier borne tankers in the near future. All of these planes would be of much use to the Russians.

If you cast your eyes to the future, there is indeed much scope for Sino-Russian military co-operation, but almost all of that involves the Russians buying into Chinese projects, not the other way around, and that is the biggest obstacle to closer military collaboration between the two. There is currently no external threat grave enough to get the Russians to swallow their pride and buy Chinese weapons, and the Russians simply lack anything good enough to tempt the Chinese to want to buy.

Cost is a factor, and yes pride too, as I am sure the Chinese have had more than enough of the brainless charge that all they can do is copy, but so are performance factors. Why would the PLA want to spend more money buying a worse platform? Even if the performance of Russian platforms are on par or even slight better than what China can make themselves, the different munitions, operating frequencies and often, the languages of the Russian systems present problems and shortcomings that will usually more than outweighs what little performance advantage they might have.

Logistics wins wars as surely as soldiers and weapons, that old adage is as true today as it has ever been. Adding a token sized force of Russian system would just complicate logistics for very little actual capability gain.

On the modern nerworked battlefield, you either win as a unit or die as an individual. How well does anyone expect Su35s to be able to network with all the other Chinese assets that would be operating in a war zone? I seriously doubt that the Su35s would even be able to datalink with other Chinese assets, never mind more high level things like co-operative engagement or taking advantage of friendly EW assets etc.

For those Su35s to be of much use, the Chinese would either need the source codes to fully integrate them with other Chinese networks and weapons, or strip out much of the radar and avionics and replace them with Chinese kit. Either option will take time and money to implement, which again makes it seems far fetched that China would bother for so few aircraft. Especially since the Russians would almost certainly never share the Su35's source codes, but if you strip out the radar and avionics and replace them with Chinese stuff, you end up with something a hell of a lot like a J11B with overcharged engines. Far better to just put better engines in J11Bs.

The days of China buying Russian arms are over, if they two are to develop deeper military ties, both must accept this new reality and make the most of it. But that almost certainly means Russia would become the junior partner and end up buying Chinese designed and manufactured systems enhanced with Russian components and subsystems, but that is just something they are not ready to stomach right now.

Not really certain China's always going to be the senior partner in all military aspects of the relationship, but I agree that Su-35s are not the weapon system that China should be purchasing right now.

These are the items China should be looking at buying or doing a ToT from Russia

  • High-performance, high-endurance SSNs, SSGNs, and SSBNs for long patrols in the Central Pacific and Arabian Sea, since those areas straddle sealanes vital to Chinese commerce
  • Long-range bombers in the Tu-160 or B1-B weight class
  • ASW helicopters and sonar systems (especially passive arrays that can detect the newest European and Japanese SSKs)
  • SLBMs (I doubt Russia would ever offer substantial expertise on this, but if such a deal was accomplished, it would send an unmistakeable signal that China and Russia have set in stone a de facto alliance.)
 

Thornblade

New Member
No. China is a equal big power to Russia. Nobody can blackmail with china with technology. The money will rather well spent on the development of domestic engine. All is just waiting time. Plus we are not even getting top end AL-41 engine. I strongly believe WS-15 engine is right on track,no need for 117S. So far no concrete proof of the deal did happened. China defense department and russiaarm export agency has no news yet. The airframe and system will be totally useless to us. It will be a very bad deal. And I believe ministry of defense of china will not that foolish to waste tax payer money.

I hope this rumour remains to be a rumour as well, but if turns out to be true, then at least, wasting taxpayers' money on purchasing Su-35s is a lesser evil comparing to wasting taxpayers' money on purchasing excessive government cars, buildings, "Maotai" banquets and funding countless officials' tenth/twentieth home...

If the Russians can start deliver Su-35s in the next a couple of years, then at least these aircraft can add to the numbers. Heck, might well put them near where the Su-30Mkk/MK2 are stationed, so they could share the same data-link, along with those Sovremenny-class destroyers from the East sea fleet, would have a nice-looking Red Army on the eastern coast! Then invite Russians for an joint-exercise with all Russian gears... should be fun. :D
 
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