Chinese Internal Politics

supersnoop · Jan 13, 2024

taxiya said:
No offense, but the issue is pointless. It is like asking "how can one legally murder someone" because Taiwan has already fxxked up ROC's constitution. If people sitck to the law, there is no way Taiwan can break away from mainland according to ROC constitution. See explaination further down.

Here is the constitution of ROC at its first edition 1946.

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Constitution amendment can only by passed by National congress, either proposed by Legislative Yuan or National congress itself.

Here is the amendment up to now

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Amendment (including territory change) must be proposed by 1/4 Legislation Yuan, 3/4 attending, and 3/4 of the attending deputies' approval to become a referendum to be voted on by people in "free" area of ROC. The amemdment is passed with 1/2 of the voting population. Article 174 of constituion does not apply.

This is a self coup d'etat. The amendment invalidates article 174 which needs a vote from National congress whichs in turn needs electors from mainland in the first place. It also deprievs mainlanders constutional rights without going through the amendment procedure which is article 174. To put in a simple term, two people signed a contract which states "contract terms can not be alterred without consent from both parties". However one guy later declared to invalidate this clause giving him sole "power" to invalidate this clause. What is that!

So if we speak purely about law and logics, All Taiwan's amendments to the constituion so far are against ROC constitution. Any future action to change ROC territory without voters from mainland (to form new session of National Congress) is against constitution of ROC.

Technically a loophole. Those additional articles are actually not part of the constitution and specifically specify that they only apply in the situation before national unification. That would mean any territory change voted by the “free area” without the National Assembly would become invalid. In a way this makes sense, because if national unification occurred, then naturally the territory change would be invalidated, lol.

Minm said:
Why do people expect a Taiwanese declaration of independence to follow some kind of legal process? Did Mao follow ROC law when he proclaimed the PRC? Of course not. American independence didn't require a referendum. At the end of WW1, the end of the German monarchy was also just proclaimed, illegally, but everyone followed

When a new state is started by proclamation it only needs one guy to shout something, no vote is needed. If everyone follows, then that's enough. The precedent is very clear

So of course a DPP president could proclaim a republic of Taiwan and announce the dissolution of the ROC and then build a new assembly for writing a constitution for the new country.

The only reason why they might organise a referendum on independence first is to get international legitimacy and military aid. But again, they could claim that the next presidential election is essentially a vote on independence and then use a landslide victory for justification of a declaration of independence

Of course it is unlikely to follow a long drawn out legal process, but the problem with such an illegal declaration is that you risk losing your own support within the territory. This is the situation that happened in Ukraine 2014.

The situation in Taiwan is not like that of PRC where the majority of the support was behind the Communists. The majority of Taiwanese do not want war. The DPP did not even win a majority of votes. Tally up KMT, TPP, and non-voters, that is the majority. I am in the belief that should there be an illegal declaration, I think there would be a military coup.

tamsen_ikard · Jan 13, 2024

I think this election was solid plus for China. 4 years ago, DPP was on top of Taiwan with overwhelming strength. It seemed public opinion was so firmly for DPP and Taiwan independence that there was no way that could ever change. Taiwanese people hate China to the core, thats the fact. They hate being called Chinese. They had extreme superiority complex combined with fear of the rise of China which they hated.

Moreover, it seemed DPP had young people in the bag. It was seen as a given the more young a person is, the more pro Taiwan independence and China hating they will be. KMT was seen as a dying party due to only having old people as supporters.

4 years later DPP is severely weakened. They almost lost if the opposition vote was not split. Young people have flocked to pro-China Ko wen Je who has even said he is open to supporting 92 consensus to have dialogue with Beijing. I have also read that the youngest of the cohort, below 18 kids are actually pro-China these days due to consuming alot of Chinese media, Douyin and such.

China also made this the war and peace election, both KMT and TPP promoted this as the war and peace election. And they gained 60% of the vote. That means most Taiwanese are afraid and worried about War and China's tactics of military pressure on Taiwan is working. Fear of war has swayed Taiwan's superiority complex and they are starting to realize China's overlwhelming power.

I think this clearly shows there is a positive trend also possible if china continues to rise up. As China gets richer and stronger, the Taiwanese public will even realize more that anti-China tantrums are only weakening Taiwan and increasing the chance of War. I think they will realize the costs and also all the Chinese wealth, media influence and military might will also create positive feelings for some parts of the Taiwanese as well.

Peaceful reunification is still following the right trajectory and eventually in 30-40 years there could be a complete change in mindset.

Serb · Jan 13, 2024

tamsen_ikard said:
Peaceful reunification is still following the right trajectory and eventually in 30-40 years there could be a complete change in mindset.

There won't be 30-40 years left due to incoming damage done as the direct result of this election. There will be 3-4 years left for unification after the just-elected toxic executive branch escalates their provocations 10 times over under the orders of the US.

And yes DPP is losing votes, but it's quite normal in any of the so-called democracies for leading parties to simply lose more votes the longer they are in power, it's called voter fatigue or something like that. You probably live in the EU, so you should know this.

Judging from that, DPP is holding quite strong for their 3rd term, 7% lead over the second-placed party, after this many years. Only the KMT in the past century had such continuity in power in Taiwan's history right after their "founding".

There is literally ZERO hope for peaceful reunification, now, or 200 years in the future, as long as the US/CIA/DPP holds all the Taiwanese media, education system, the election process, political establishment, etc. They simply can brainwash people and do political machinations however they like to achieve whatever results they like. The Taiwan (and US) question will be resolved within 3-4 years.

tamsen_ikard · Jan 13, 2024

Serb said:
There won't be 30-40 years left my friend, haha. There will be 3-4 years left for unification after the just-elected executive branch escalates their provocations 10 times over under the orders of the US.

And yes DPP is losing votes, but it's quite normal in any of the so-called democracies for leading parties to simply lose more votes the longer they are in power, it's called voter fatigue or something like that. You probably live in the EU, so you should know this.

Judging from that, DPP is holding quite strong for their 3rd term, 7% lead over the second-placed party, after this many years. Only the KMT in the past century had such continuity in power in Taiwan's history.

There is literally ZERO hope for peaceful reunification, now, or 200 years in the future, as long as the US/CIA/DPP holds all the Taiwanese media, education system, the election process, political establishment, etc.

If DPP was intending to rock the boat so much, their campaign wouldn't be so dovish to convince the public how desperate Lai is to keep the status quo. They even got Hsiao as the handler for Lai to ensure he will stay in line.

DPP has gotten more and more afraid to do anything anti-China these days. In the previous term, they did the Chinese Taipei referendum to change Taiwan's name in sports. They spent extreme effort to rejoin WHO and other UN orgs. Compared to that, what has they done in the last 4 years? Nothing at all. It is US and the west that are trying to raise Taiwan's profile to poke China. But DPP itself is too afraid to do anything too provocative.

Now things could get worse if US and the west use the Taiwan card for provocation no doubt. But US would only escalate if they were hell bent on fighting a war against China. US is so busy and desperate right now trying to manage various crises, they have no desire to fight.

Besides, if the US tries to use Taiwan to poke China, it will only increase military pressure on Taiwan from China. That will only increase Taiwanese fear of War. By next election, fear of War could be so high that Taiwanese would be desperate for peace and vote KMT or TPP into power.

Taiwanese are no longer so sure of overwhelming American might that can save them. They are starting to see the reality of American power in both Ukraine and the Middle east. So, raising the tensions will only make DPP unpopular.

I think Peaceful reunification is still not only possible, but becoming more probable. Taiwanese have shown no desire to fight a war. They have shown they can be pressure through military threats to actually support pro-China parties. So, China can still change Taiwanese mindset through carrot and stick and soft power media influence. It will take time, but it is happening.

azn_cyniq · Jan 13, 2024

tamsen_ikard said:
I think this election was solid plus for China. 4 years ago, DPP was on top of Taiwan with overwhelming strength. It seemed public opinion was so firmly for DPP and Taiwan independence that there was no way that could ever change. Taiwanese people hate China to the core, thats the fact. They hate being called Chinese. They had extreme superiority complex combined with fear of the rise of China which they hated.

Moreover, it seemed DPP had young people in the bag. It was seen as a given the more young a person is, the more pro Taiwan independence and China hating they will be. KMT was seen as a dying party due to only having old people as supporters.

4 years later DPP is severely weakened. They almost lost if the opposition vote was not split. Young people have flocked to pro-China Ko wen Je who has even said he is open to supporting 92 consensus to have dialogue with Beijing. I have also read that the youngest of the cohort, below 18 kids are actually pro-China these days due to consuming alot of Chinese media, Douyin and such.

China also made this the war and peace election, both KMT and TPP promoted this as the war and peace election. And they gained 60% of the vote. That means most Taiwanese are afraid and worried about War and China's tactics of military pressure on Taiwan is working. Fear of war has swayed Taiwan's superiority complex and they are starting to realize China's overlwhelming power.

I think this clearly shows there is a positive trend also possible if china continues to rise up. As China gets richer and stronger, the Taiwanese public will even realize more that anti-China tantrums are only weakening Taiwan and increasing the chance of War. I think they will realize the costs and also all the Chinese wealth, media influence and military might will also create positive feelings for some parts of the Taiwanese as well.

Peaceful reunification is still following the right trajectory and eventually in 30-40 years there could be a complete change in mindset.

Hold up. This is absolutely untrue. Even the most hardcore DPP supporters I know do not hate being called Chinese.

Serb · Jan 13, 2024

tamsen_ikard said:
If DPP was intending to rock the boat so much, their campaign wouldn't be so dovish to convince the public how desperate Lai is to keep the status quo. They even got Hsiao as the handler for Lai to ensure he will stay in line.

DPP has gotten more and more afraid to do anything anti-China these days. In the previous term, they did the Chinese Taipei referendum to change Taiwan's name in sports. They spent extreme effort to rejoin WHO and other UN orgs. Compared to that, what has they done in the last 4 years? Nothing at all. It is US and the west that are trying to raise Taiwan's profile to poke China. But DPP itself is too afraid to do anything too provocative.

Now things could get worse if US and the west use the Taiwan card for provocation no doubt. But US would only escalate if they were hell bent on fighting a war against China. US is so busy and desperate right now trying to manage various crises, they have no desire to fight.

Besides, if the US tries to use Taiwan to poke China, it will only increase military pressure on Taiwan from China. That will only increase Taiwanese fear of War. By next election, fear of War could be so high that Taiwanese would be desperate for peace and vote KMT or TPP into power.

Taiwanese are no longer so sure of overwhelming American might that can save them. They are starting to see the reality of American power in both Ukraine and the Middle east. So, raising the tensions will only make DPP unpopular.

I think Peaceful reunification is still not only possible, but becoming more probable. Taiwanese have shown no desire to fight a war. They have shown they can be pressure through military threats to actually support pro-China parties. So, China can still change Taiwanese mindset through carrot and stick and soft power media influence. It will take time, but it is happening.

Every party in the history of the so-called stupid democratic elections process farce, of the world, tells one thing before elections, and then another thing after the elections. So you should take what they say with a grain of salt.

Not to mention that Lai is a famous hard-liner even inside the DPP, and his nomination as a candidate shows you many things in itself, not to mention that US-CIA agent from Hsiao Bi-khim's nomination as the vice president. This tells me you didn't read enough about them.

I don't understand what are you coping with, but during the last 4 years, there were all-time high provocations from the US and Taiwan regarding China (not only Pelosi's visit, but Tsai's visit to the US and meeting with McCarthy and many other 'smaller' ones), and they will continue now with many times higher speed and scale because they secured an election victory.

China has no soft power over Taiwan, because it doesn't control the media (and education, and political machinations), so peaceful reunification is a major cope.

They were already military threats (and exercises) during the last 2 years on historic highs from China, and what happened? Nothing. DPP still won in the end.

The more the US loses its power, the more likely is that they will want a war against China sooner, because they are afraid that there will be even worse conditions for a conformation against China in the future. You can see how they directed the Philippines to provoke recently, etc.

The more the US loses in the Middle East and Ukraine, the more they will try and gamble against China. Better 20% chance now, than a 0% chance of winning against China in the future. You don't understand that imperial mindset.

tamsen_ikard · Jan 13, 2024

Serb said:
Every party in the history of the so-called stupid democratic elections process farce, of the world, tells one thing before elections, and then another thing after the elections. So you should take what they say with a grain of salt.

Not to mention that Lai is a famous hard-liner even inside the DPP, and his nomination as a candidate shows you many things in itself, not to mention that US-CIA agent from Hsiao Bi-khim's nomination as the vice president. This tells me you didn't read enough about them.

I don't understand what are you coping with, but during the last 4 years, there were all-time high provocations from the US and Taiwan regarding China (not only Pelosi's visit, but Tsai's visit to the US and meeting with McCarthy and many other 'smaller' ones), and they will continue now with many times higher speed and scale because they secured an election victory.

China has no soft power over Taiwan, because it doesn't control the media (and education, and political machinations), so peaceful reunification is a major cope.

They were already military threats (and exercises) during the last 2 years on historic highs from China, and what happened? Nothing. DPP still won in the end.

The more the US loses its power, the more likely is that they will want a war against China sooner, because they are afraid that there will be even worse conditions for a conformation against China in the future. You can see how they directed the Philippines to provoke recently, etc.

The more the US loses in the Middle East and Ukraine, the more they will try and gamble against China. Better 20% chance now, than a 0% chance of winning against China in the future. You don't understand that imperial mindset.

I have been following Lai and the DPP since 2012. I have seen their trajectory. Lai used to make provocative comments to try to win diehard Taiwan Independence supporters before 2018. This is how he became popular and came in the limelight.

I don't know if people remember, DPP used to be known as the troublemaker by the US. They were shunned by US in the Chen shui Bian years due to how they were agitating for Taiwan independence. But after Tsai, they slowly transformed their platform. They are now a pro-west party that only talks about how Democracy loving they are. They no longer agitate for Taiwan Independence and only listen to Washington.

Due to Tsai policies there was even a split in DPP. Lai was part of Pro-Independence faction that was unsatisfied to with Tsai's status quo approach. That's why there was a very competitive primary between Lai and Tsai before 2020 election. Then ofcourse he lost. He got his lesson and has been a Tsai puppet ever since.

but Taiwanese themselves have changed their mindset about possibility of Independence due to extreme Chinese pressure. Fear of war has changed Taiwan in the last 5-6 years. Tsai's policy is now seen as the best path for Taiwan. So, even Lai is now speaking like Tsai. If he deviated even a little bit for this, he will be seen as a troublemaker by US similar to Chen shui Bian.

So, Lai will be very careful what he does. Most likely he will be just the front. Hsiao will be the real president. And Hsiao is essentially Tsai 2.0.

Coming back to provocations by DPP in the last 4 years. What have they done in terms of actual policy that promote Taiwan Independence? Did they do a referendum on changing their name like they did in 2018? Did they try to bribe countries to support them for a seat in the WHO?

All they have got are visits from western politicians and alot of Pro-Taiwan statements. This is obviously provocative for China, but the provocation is being done by the west. Not by Taiwan government.

Even Pelosi visit was something Tsai didn't want and tried extremely hard to play down. They are afraid of the west poking China too much.

Serb · Jan 13, 2024

tamsen_ikard said:
I have been following Lai and the DPP since 2012. I have seen their trajectory. Lai used to make provocative comments to try to win diehard Taiwan Independence supporters before 2018. This is how he became popular and came in the limelight.

I don't know if people remember, DPP used to be known as the troublemaker by the US. They were shunned by US in the Chen shui Bian years due to how they were agitating for Taiwan independence. But after Tsai, they slowly transformed their platform. They are now a pro-west party that only talks about how Democracy loving they are. They no longer agitate for Taiwan Independence and only listen to Washington.

Due to Tsai policies there was even a split in DPP. Lai was part of Pro-Independence faction that was unsatisfied to with Tsai's status quo approach. That's why there was a very competitive primary between Lai and Tsai before 2020 election. Then ofcourse he lost. He got his lesson and has been a Tsai puppet ever since.

but Taiwanese themselves have changed their mindset about possibility of Independence due to extreme Chinese pressure. Fear of war has changed Taiwan in the last 5-6 years. Tsai's policy is now seen as the best path for Taiwan. So, even Lai is now speaking like Tsai. If he deviated even a little bit for this, he will be seen as a troublemaker by US similar to Chen shui Bian.

So, Lai will be very careful what he does. Most likely he will be just the front. Hsiao will be the real president. And Hsiao is essentially Tsai 2.0.

Coming back to provocations by DPP in the last 4 years. What have they done in terms of actual policy that promote Taiwan Independence? Did they do a referendum on changing their name like they did in 2018? Did they try to bribe countries to support them for a seat in the WHO?

All they have got are visits from western politicians and alot of Pro-Taiwan statements. This is obviously provocative for China, but the provocation is being done by the west. Not by Taiwan government.

Even Pelosi visit was something Tsai didn't want and tried extremely hard to play down. They are afraid of the west poking China too much.

It doesn't matter if Tsai and DPP leadership personally don't want to provoke China, or are they doing it because they are the US slaves/fanboys instead.

The only reality that should matter - is that they are doing it. And Pelosi's caliber seat in the US political establishment didn't visit the Taiwan since like 1997.

And it's only the beginning I fear, they will break even that taboo in the upcoming years, they waited to secure this election, and after the US election pasess.

supersnoop · Jan 14, 2024

Serb said:
There won't be 30-40 years left due to incoming damage done as the direct result of this election. There will be 3-4 years left for unification after the just-elected toxic executive branch escalates their provocations 10 times over under the orders of the US.

Thought about this, I don’t think you’re correct. All Taiwan’s regional governor can do is invite US politicians and other useless window dressing. This is the kind of thing that western media and politicians lap up, but has no practical value.

He cant even increase military spending due to the lack of parliamentary control.

PRC will launch more 055, more CATOBAR carriers, more stealth fighters, more green energy projects, more battery factories, EV factories, more semiconductor development, etc.

Go to Taiwan, you know it is already falling behind. Two stroke engine scooters are still stinking up the streets. The DPP refuses to work with PRC, so where will they be in next generation technologies? They should be a natural partner in EV development due to mature industries, especially semiconductors, but there are no plants opened, no opportunities for export. They are suffering from blackouts due to the incompetence of the DPP, refusing to build a nuclear power plant, no access to Chinese solar panels due to bans. Western media keeps harping on the Chinese youth unemployment rate, but Taiwan’s problem is much, much worse. Salaries are the lowest in East Asia, and high demand workers like software and electrical engineers can be paid 3X more in mainland China. US doesn’t control Taiwan culturally because US is not the leader in Mandarin language productions. There is a saying that the medium is the message, since all the dominant Mandarin streaming in from mainland China, they will ultimately be unable to stop mainland messaging.

FairAndUnbiased · Jan 14, 2024

supersnoop said:
Thought about this, I don’t think you’re correct. All Taiwan’s regional governor can do is invite US politicians and other useless window dressing. This is the kind of thing that western media and politicians lap up, but has no practical value.

He cant even increase military spending due to the lack of parliamentary control.

PRC will launch more 055, more CATOBAR carriers, more stealth fighters, more green energy projects, more battery factories, EV factories, more semiconductor development, etc.

Go to Taiwan, you know it is already falling behind. Two stroke engine scooters are still stinking up the streets. The DPP refuses to work with PRC, so where will they be in next generation technologies? They should be a natural partner in EV development due to mature industries, especially semiconductors, but there are no plants opened, no opportunities for export.

Taiwanese car industry is an utter failure. Partnering with them to make EVs is throwing money into the trashcan.

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They produce ~0.01 cars per capita (~240k) and declining.

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China produces 30 million cars - 0.02 cars per capita. Double the car production per capita than Taiwan.

Taiwan has 0 automotive exports.

There are 0 automotive brands of note from Taiwan.

You can't drive a chip just like you can't watch a chip, which is why TCL, Hisense, etc. are making bank as TV producers. The display matters, the physical actuators matter, not just the computing device.

Chinese Internal Politics

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tamsen_ikard

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Serb

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tamsen_ikard

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azn_cyniq

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tamsen_ikard

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