Chinese Internal Politics

Overbom said:

These are the two main themes:
Complete CYL annihilation.
Complete Xi dominance.

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Good or bad for China? Hard to say. This is a gamble. With great power comes great responsibility. My opinion:

1. If the next government succeeds in any 1 of the following, it counts as a huge win and nothing else matters: cancelling petrodollar, flipping Japan, taking Taiwan, outright defeat (military or political) of some certain country, digital RMB as top reserve currency

2. If the next government succeeds in any 3 of the following, it counts as a neutral: domestic EUV, domestic widebody civil aviation, BRI success, total energy independence, Russian victory in Ukraine, nominal GDP exceeding US, COVID hitting everyone

3. If the next government doesn't succeed at any of the above, it is bad, because it causes political instability due to centralizing too much power and doing nothing with it. Successive governments will struggle to claim similar legitimacy as Xi's as he's broken too many precedents and is basically wasting an asset with Hu Chunhua.

President Hu's health is really not good! The opening ceremony was tough!

KYli said:

MSM is pushing the idea that Hu Chunhua, Li Keqiang, and Wang Yang are market friendly and reformers. Doubt that they truly believe that but were hoping to cause a division within China. And they do believe Hu, Li and Wang would be willing to move China back to less confrontational and more accommodated foreign policies.

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lol Hu Chunhua crushed Tibetan independence, Inner Mongolian independence and Cantonese unrest. He is extremely hardline, but just not within Xi's circle. What they want is to create division.

Wang Yang is a lib though. No question about that. Hu had to fix many of his mistakes in Guangdong. Wang Yang going down was a matter of time.

I noticed that Hu Chunhua's Wikipedia entry is suspiciously positive, not a single bad word in fact. Strange considering the anti-Chinese smear campaign that permeates English Wikipedia and reaches as far as an article on .

drowingfish said:

if Hu was not sent out for health reasons then he must have planned on saying something during that meeting. Xi had him removed publicly as a warning to his conspirators not to do anything. it would be a very public display of internal rift. if it were simply for health reasons i would imagine xi wouldve at least stood up.

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It's pretty clear that they removed him so he wouldn't have a Biden moment in front of the whole room. Maybe he'd fall asleep or get confused and start reading loudly from the cafeteria menu.

When he came in he had people hold his arm. And then he promptly returned later.

Without a close up it's harder to tell, but he doesn't look completely healthy from the way he walks and how he sometimes looks around him.

Jiang Zemin just got the insane genes, not everyone is lucky like him. 79 is too old for most to hold any important government jobs.

Is it said that one of the Vice Chairmans of the Central Military Commission has been switched from Xu Qiliang (许其亮) to He Weidong (何卫东) (65 yrs old). Zhong Youxia (张又侠) (72 yrs old) retains his position.

He Weidong is also previously the Commander of the PLA Eastern Theater Command from December 2019 to January 2022.

Alongside the most recent lineup of the PBSC, could this mean that the Taiwan problem would be solved within the next 5 years?

ember said:

I noticed that Hu Chunhua's Wikipedia entry is suspiciously positive, not a single bad word in fact. Strange considering the anti-Chinese smear campaign that permeates English Wikipedia and reaches as far as an article on

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.

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IDK, it wasn't edited much since 2019. There's also nothing negative about any of the other PBSC members.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

Is it said that one of the Vice Chairmans of the Central Military Commission has been switched from Xu Qiliang (许其亮) to He Weidong (何卫东) (65 yrs old). Zhong Youxia (张又侠) (72 yrs old) retains his position.

He Weidong is also previously the Commander of the PLA Eastern Theater Command from December 2019 to January 2022.

Alongside the most recent lineup of the PBSC, could this mean that the Taiwan problem would be solved within the next 5 years?

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I still think Beijing intends to play defensively rather then preemptively striking the rebels when a peaceful deal can be made, but there is an increasing aggression from America and the necessary steps to guard the country will be taken.

To deal with the US threat, I suspect that while China has a military that should be capable of repelling a small/medium sized invasion with ease and resist an all out invasion with decent chances, China's chosen solution is rather to sway SK and Japan. Without 1 of these countries, the difficulty of invasion, even if the entire US military is used, becomes incredibly difficult. Without both, it is completely impossible.

FairAndUnbiased said:

3. If the next government doesn't succeed at any of the above, it is bad, because it causes political instability due to centralizing too much power and doing nothing with it. Successive governments will struggle to claim similar legitimacy as Xi's as he's broken too many precedents and is basically wasting an asset with Hu Chunhua.

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Honestly though, wouldn't Hu Chunhua be given some more important positions in the government, considering his successes in "managing" dissent and chaos in those prefectures that are prone to separatism in the past? Or is there something about Hua that Xi didn't want to put him even in the Politburo CC other than not being inside Xi's circle?

ACuriousPLAFan said:

Honestly though, wouldn't Hu Chunhua be given some more important positions in the government, considering his successes in "managing" dissent and chaos in those prefectures that are prone to separatism in the past? Or is there something about Hua that Xi didn't want to put him even in the Politburo CC other than not being inside Xi's circle?

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Politburo is normally 25 members. It's now 24. It's almost as if Hu Chunhua got deleted at the last second. Something happened.