Chinese Internal Politics

ACuriousPLAFan said:

Seriously, are things really going to be real bad with the new batch of the leadership?!

I was hoping for a Chinese/Asian/East Asian Century, not an American Century 2.0!

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when I saw the Central Committee list I was optimistic. But this PBSC is just not good. there's no need to be too disappointed, because momentum alone will probably carry China to #1, and Biden's cabinet is no better. But the potential has been stunted substantially.

Feima said:

You're implying (a) being Xi's" personal friend" is what got them in, and (b) being Xi's "personal friend" means they are automatically less qualified for their job.

What's your basis?

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OK.

Li Q never held national office, only regional office. Unprecedented for a premier. And he did a bad job in Shanghai managing the pandemic response. He also has the lowest education of any premier in history, including guys who fought in WW2 when universities were closed like Zhao Ziyang and Hua Guofeng.

Li X never held national office, only regional office. Unprecedented for a vice premier.

Cai only held a minor national office created for him by Xi Jinping for 2 years. Otherwise he only held regional office.

Ding has never held executive regional office. This may not be a strike against him if he is not in an executive role in the PBSC. But that still limits his perspectives.

Fatty said:

I am not too familiar with all of these people but what I do know is that Xi has shown me that he has vision and the capability to achieve it. The results will speak for themselves in a short five years.

I will also add it’s odd to dismiss a comparison between China and the West and then compare the government structures of China and Russia

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Xi's ideas worked because there are people around him that make the machinery of govenment run and make the ideas happen. There are now 4 people in the PBSC that do not have direct experience making the machinery of government run at the national level.

Also, because of multiparty elections. We can compare Japan as a 1 party LDP state and you'll find that similarly, Japanese cabinets don't have tons of personal friends of the PM either. Same with Singapore as a 1 party PAP state.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Xi's ideas worked because there are people around him that make the machinery of govenment run and make the ideas happen. There are now 4 people in the PBSC that do not have direct experience making the machinery of government run at the national level.

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That's a feature, not a bug. Xi purposely doesn't want them to have direct experience. This means that they will have to rely on Xi to establish their authority in their institutions.

Good for politics, bad for effectively governing these institutions

Overbom said:

That's a feature, not a bug. Xi purposely doesn't want them to have direct experience. This means that they will have to rely on Xi to establish their authority in their institutions.

Good for politics, bad for effectively governing these institutions

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yes, and bad for governing instutions = lower efficiency, less redundancy and fewer alternative points of view.

FairAndUnbiased said:

when I saw the Central Committee list I was optimistic. But this PBSC is just not good. there's no need to be too disappointed, because momentum alone will probably carry China to #1, and Biden's cabinet is no better. But the potential has been stunted substantially.

OK.

Li Q never held national office, only regional office. Unprecedented for a premier. And he did a bad job in Shanghai managing the pandemic response. He also has the lowest education of any premier in history, including guys who fought in WW2 when universities were closed like Zhao Ziyang and Hua Guofeng.

Li X never held national office, only regional office. Unprecedented for a vice premier.

Cai only held a minor national office created for him by Xi Jinping for 2 years. Otherwise he only held regional office.

Ding has never held executive regional office. This may not be a strike against him if he is not in an executive role in the PBSC. But that still limits his perspectives.


Xi's ideas worked because there are people around him that make the machinery of govenment run and make the ideas happen. There are now 4 people in the PBSC that do not have direct experience making the machinery of government run at the national level.

Also, because of multiparty elections. We can compare Japan as a 1 party LDP state and you'll find that similarly, Japanese cabinets don't have tons of personal friends of the PM either. Same with Singapore as a 1 party PAP state.

Click to expand...

Li Q has an MBA from HK Poly U according to wiki (well it's not HKU). Ding looks like an internal party admin guy similar to maybe Sir Graham Brady or Reince Priebus.

FairAndUnbiased said:

yes, and bad for governing instutions = lower efficiency, less redundancy and fewer alternative points of view.

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Yes. I long knew that Xi's vision couldn't be completed with the current political balance

All of his more "radical" ideas needed a big political change to happen in order to be completed. Otherwise, you know the script. The moment Xi changes something, local snakes come up and complain about touching their interests, then they keep stalling, lobby central and local governments and reforms are basically stopped.

This is a new era, and only with a new political era can these big changes happen. Don't forget, America had its own big regulation movement in the '40s. In comparison China still resembles the Wild West in business/economics. That is not good, order is necessary

Big reforms need to happen, and I am quite certain that this new 5 year term is going be a new era. Lets see who dares to raise the anti-reform flag of resistance

I don't see anyone with the stature or experience in the new line up to replace Xi in 5 years I guess will see a 4th Xi term.

I'm very uncomfortable with what is now happening in China. But at the same time if we look at the West were there are regular elections and in some countries there are even term limits. And yet we continue to see the quality of leadership in the West decline. I don't know anymore.

Overbom said:

That's a feature, not a bug. Xi purposely doesn't want them to have direct experience. This means that they will have to rely on Xi to establish their authority in their institutions.

Good for politics, bad for effectively governing these institutions

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I think xi is trying to finish taiwan problem and I'm not sure how many of party people support something like common prosperity/ rural revitalization Instead previous leaders focused more on GDP & export but xi wants more self sufficient economy as well as wants to increase more middle class so that it can turn china into bigger consumer mar for internal cycle ( you have heard of dual circulation) so that you won't be dependent on export kind of like American economy and I'm sure many Shanghai guys want to rely more on export based economy .
I think few goals which xi wants to achieve.

1. De dollarisation ( BRICS / yuan internationalization) , export to USA Europe helps dollar stay number 1, less export oriented economy means west will starve to get Chinese product which can also protect china from external problem & inflation.

2. Taiwan problem ( just they did changes in constitution about this issue)

3. More border control & scs control.

4. Transforming PLA to number 1 ( fight with anybody who is interfering directly in China's territory)

5. More self sufficient economy ( made in china will go through full effort)

If china achieve all this under xi then china will enter into new era where USA dominance will be gone , USA will explode with debt & collapse.

But if you think and look back then under xi China became more self reliant, more innovative, more clean & PLA Also became near peer to USA military . I think xi didn't liked few things about how much hew was pushing for self reliant & made in china 2025 goal but still companies & government organisations was still buying foreign techs . There is a reason why west & even big neighbours hates xi more than CCP.

caudaceus said:

Li Q has an MBA from HK Poly U according to wiki (well it's not HKU). Ding looks like an internal party admin guy similar to maybe Sir Graham Brady or Reince Priebus.

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He was given the MBA in an executive MBA program while he was working full time. Executive MBAs are almost impossible to fail and they go very slowly to make sure the students pass.


His real degree: 浙江农业大学宁波分校农机系农机化专业学习 - Zhejiang Agricultural University, Ningbo campus, agricultural mechanics. Note that in the 1970's Zhejiang Agricultural University was still Zhejiang Agricultural College 浙江林学院, a 2 year program.

Overbom said:

Yes. I long knew that Xi's vision couldn't be completed with the current political balance

All of his more "radical" ideas needed a big political change to happen in order to be completed. Otherwise, you know the script. The moment Xi changes something, local snakes come up and complain about touching their interests, then they keep stalling, lobby central and local governments and reforms are basically stopped.

This is a new era, and only with a new political era can these big changes happen. Don't forget, America had its own big regulation movement in the '40s. In comparison China still resembles the Wild West in business/economics. That is not good, order is necessary

Big reforms need to happen, and I am quite certain that this new 5 year term is going be a new era. Lets see who dares to raise the anti-reform flag of resistance

Click to expand...

I made a post about the goals needed to be accomplished if this is to be worth it.

FairAndUnbiased said:

when I saw the Central Committee list I was optimistic. But this PBSC is just not good. there's no need to be too disappointed, because momentum alone will probably carry China to #1, and Biden's cabinet is no better. But the potential has been stunted substantially.

OK.

Li Q never held national office, only regional office. Unprecedented for a premier. And he did a bad job in Shanghai managing the pandemic response. He also has the lowest education of any premier in history, including guys who fought in WW2 when universities were closed like Zhao Ziyang and Hua Guofeng.

Li X never held national office, only regional office. Unprecedented for a vice premier.

Cai only held a minor national office created for him by Xi Jinping for 2 years. Otherwise he only held regional office.

Ding has never held executive regional office. This may not be a strike against him if he is not in an executive role in the PBSC. But that still limits his perspectives.


Xi's ideas worked because there are people around him that make the machinery of govenment run and make the ideas happen. There are now 4 people in the PBSC that do not have direct experience making the machinery of government run at the national level.

Also, because of multiparty elections. We can compare Japan as a 1 party LDP state and you'll find that similarly, Japanese cabinets don't have tons of personal friends of the PM either. Same with Singapore as a 1 party PAP state.

Click to expand...

this is Xi's plan, it's going to be very difficult for some of these people to keep up with Xi's policy... let Xi do all his work... geopolitics outside China is so messed up right now, no one has can't be brave enough to deal with a pile of panic caused by the U.S. and Russia...