Chinese Internal Politics

ZeEa5KPul said:

Yeah, that's how I know China's doing it right. I used to think these liberal clowns are useless, but they're actually an excellent diagnostic mechanism. If they're having a meltdown, you're doing it right; if they're happy, something is terribly wrong.

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• CYL faction has been severely weakened with Li Keqiang and Wang Yang gone.
  • It would have broken precedent if Wang stayed on the Standing Committee for one more term, as no Party member has ever managed to stay on the Politburo for more than 3 consecutive Party Congresses (Wang was Party Secretary of Guangdong in the 17th, Vice Premier in the 18th, and Chairman of the CPPCC in the 19th).... but then again I feel like this iteration of the Party Congress will be precedent defying when you consider the fact that a General Secretary has secured a third term in office, and someone (Li Qiang) who has no experience in the State Council (either as a Minister or Vice Premier) strongly linked to the Premiership.
  • The only major figure left from the CYL faction is Hu Chunhua, and I concur with @FairAndUnbiased that he'll be promoted to the Standing Committee... However with all the rising stars from the CYL faction "purged", Hu wouldn't have enough political clout and backing from the Central Committee or Party Elders (老同志) from the CYL faction to challenge Xi.
• My current prediction for the Standing Committee:
  • Xi Jinping as General Secretary
  • Wang Huning as Chairman of the National People's Congress
  • Zhao Leji as Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference
  • Li Qiang or Hu Chunhua as Premier
    • With Wang Huning and Zhao Leji currently holding the 5th and 6th position respectively on the Standing Committee, Li/Hu would have to be ranked 4th.
    • This would break Party precedent in the post-Deng era, as Premiers typically hold the 2nd ranking in the party, and the lowest ranking a Premier ever held was 3rd in the 15th Party Congress - Premier Li Peng, who fell out of favor with Jiang Zemin, became Chairman of the National People's Congress but maintained his ranking in the Party. Zhu Rongji succeeded Li as Premier, and he became 3rd ranked on the Standing Committee.
  • Chen Min'er or Ding Xuexiang as 1st ranked Central Secretariat
    • Ding has age on his side, I'm leaning more towards him staying in the Politburo (my prediction is that he takes over the Organization Department from the outgoing Chen Xi) before promoting to become Central Secretariat and Vice President in the 21st Party Congress in order to maintain Xi's legacy when Xi steps down... much like Zeng Qinghong did for Jiang Zemin when Hu Jintao rose to the top job.
  • Li Xi as Secretary of Central Commission for Discipline Inspection
  • Hu Chunhua, Li Qiang, or He Lifeng as 1st ranked Vice Premier
• From a foreign policy perspective, I feel like too much attention has been given to Wang Yi. While Wang is REALLY REALLY good at his job, he had limited policy making input in the 18th and 19th Party Congress. It would seem as though he will be succeeding the outgoing Yang Jiechi as Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, as he has built up a strong reputation/rapport with his foreign counterparts. However I do think enough isn't said about Qin Gang, the current Chinese Ambassador to the US, making the Central Committee. Qin Gang was a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs before he was promoted to oversee Xi's foreign visits, and it was described that he was responsible for making sure Xi was presented "the right way". With much close interaction with Xi, I'd say he's considered a part of Xi's inner circle, and why he defied the expectations of western foreign affairs apparatus/institutions when he was picked to become Ambassador to the US. As such I have a sneaky feeling he is a dark horse candidate to succeed Wang Yi as Foreign Minister.... which would set him on the pathway to be further promoted to State Councilor in the 21st Party Congress, especially given his age (55). I'm probably completely wrong with this prediction, but quite frankly I feel like the current crop of Vice Foreign Ministers (or other Ministers leading Foreign Affairs related ministries in the State Council) don't share the same presence Wang Yi has.
• At 79 years of age, Hu Jintao is an old man - he looked particularly fragile in recent public appearances. Too big a deal has been made into him being "escorted" out during the closing ceremony. The last thing the Party wants is for a former leader of the country, despite factional indifferences, to appear weak and brittle, or even embarrass himself out in the public eye... we've seen enough of that from Biden's shenanigans. Unlike Congress and Parliament, the CPC doesn't like to air out it's dirty laundry to the public eye. If Xi didn't want Hu there, Hu wouldn't even have made an appearance at the closing ceremony in the first place.

crash8pilot said:

I've been busy with work the past couple of days, so I haven't had a chance to get back to everyone. I've got a quick moment to spare, so here are my takeaways after today's news:

• CYL faction has been severely weakened with Li Keqiang and Wang Yang gone.
  • It would have broken precedent if Wang stayed on the Standing Committee for one more term, as no Party member has ever managed to stay on the Politburo for more than 3 consecutive Party Congresses (Wang was Party Secretary of Guangdong in the 17th, Vice Premier in the 18th, and Chairman of the CPPCC in the 19th).... but then again I feel like this iteration of the Party Congress will be precedent defying when you consider the fact that a General Secretary has secured a third term in office, and someone (Li Qiang) who has no experience in the State Council (either as a Minister or Vice Premier) strongly linked to the Premiership.
  • The only major figure left from the CYL faction is Hu Chunhua, and I concur with @FairAndUnbiased that he'll be promoted to the Standing Committee... However with all the rising stars from the CYL faction "purged", Hu wouldn't have enough political clout and backing from the Central Committee or Party Elders (老同志) from the CYL faction to challenge Xi.
• My current prediction for the Standing Committee:
  • Xi Jinping as General Secretary
  • Wang Huning as Chairman of the National People's Congress
  • Zhao Leji as Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference
  • Li Qiang or Hu Chunhua as Premier
    • With Wang Huning and Zhao Leji currently holding the 5th and 6th position respectively on the Standing Committee, Li/Hu would have to be ranked 4th.
    • This would break Party precedent in the post-Deng era, as Premiers typically hold the 2nd ranking in the party, and the lowest ranking a Premier ever held was 3rd in the 15th Party Congress - Premier Li Peng, who fell out of favor with Jiang Zemin, became Chairman of the National People's Congress but maintained his ranking in the Party. Zhu Rongji succeeded Li as Premier, and he became 3rd ranked on the Standing Committee.
  • Chen Min'er or Ding Xuexiang as 1st ranked Central Secretariat
    • Ding has age on his side, I'm leaning more towards him staying in the Politburo (my prediction is that he takes over the Organization Department from the outgoing Chen Xi) before promoting to become Central Secretariat and Vice President in the 21st Party Congress in order to maintain Xi's legacy when Xi steps down... much like Zeng Qinghong did for Jiang Zemin when Hu Jintao rose to the top job.
  • Li Xi as Secretary of Central Commission for Discipline Inspection
  • Hu Chunhua, Li Qiang, or He Lifeng as 1st ranked Vice Premier
• From a foreign policy perspective, I feel like too much attention has been given to Wang Yi. While Wang is REALLY REALLY good at his job, he had limited policy making input in the 18th and 19th Party Congress. It would seem as though he will be succeeding the outgoing Yang Jiechi as Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, as he has built up a strong reputation/rapport with his foreign counterparts. However I do think enough isn't said about Qin Gang, the current Chinese Ambassador to the US, making the Central Committee. Qin Gang was a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs before he was promoted to oversee Xi's foreign visits, and it was described that he was responsible for making sure Xi was presented "the right way". With much close interaction with Xi, I'd say he's considered a part of Xi's inner circle, and why he defied the expectations of western foreign affairs apparatus/institutions when he was picked to become Ambassador to the US. As such I have a sneaky feeling he is a dark horse candidate to succeed Wang Yi as Foreign Minister.... which would set him on the pathway to be further promoted to State Councilor in the 21st Party Congress, especially given his age (55). I'm probably completely wrong with this prediction, but quite frankly I feel like the current crop of Vice Foreign Ministers (or other Ministers leading Foreign Affairs related ministries in the State Council) don't share the same presence Wang Yi has.
• At 79 years of age, Hu Jintao is an old man - he looked particularly fragile in recent public appearances. Too big a deal has been made into him being "escorted" out during the closing ceremony. The last thing the Party wants is for a former leader of the country, despite factional indifferences, to appear weak and brittle, or even embarrass himself out in the public eye... we've seen enough of that from Biden's shenanigans. Unlike Congress and Parliament, the CPC doesn't like to air out it's dirty laundry to the public eye. If Xi didn't want Hu there, Hu wouldn't even have made an appearance at the closing ceremony in the first place.

I know my takes aren't necessarily popular with everyone on SDF, but I thought I'd throw my thoughts out there to get the discussion going.

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daifo said:

A normally china hater lay out some plausible reasons:
1. A health crisis like covid positive
2. Signs of dementia and may have said something dumb before the ceremony like saying he will be voting against Xi.
3. Public purge

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IMO, if 3, would of been better to just not invite then make a spectacle of it.

edit: watch the video on a monitor instead of muh phone, Hu didn't look too well so 1 or 2 could be possible.

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caudaceus said:

Nah, it's dementia. I saw the opening video a few days ago. Hu already looked disoriented to the point Xi grabbed his arm and let him sit even then aide helped him to sit down.

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FairAndUnbiased said:

Li Qiang being premier would double break precedent - going from regional office to national office without a stop in central government, while passing over Hu Chunhua whose had 2 regional offices and 1 in central government. But this is a precedent breaking congress after all.

I'm going to risk my internet points a little and say that premier is going to Hu Chunhua. He is of the correct age for 2 PBSC terms with no precedent break. If he becomes premier, it works out for 2 terms.

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ZeEa5KPul said:

Yeah, that's how I know China's doing it right. I used to think these liberal clowns are useless, but they're actually an excellent diagnostic mechanism. If they're having a meltdown, you're doing it right; if they're happy, something is terribly wrong.

Click to expand...

daifo said:

Yeah , i think so too. The guy to Hu's left was already holding Hu's paperwork when the escorter was there to assist Hu. That seems like one could tell something was wrong vs a sudden removal.

Also sky "china-bad" news proposes health reasons is likely too

Unedited from afp

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FairAndUnbiased said:

Li Qiang being premier would double break precedent - going from regional office to national office without a stop in central government, while passing over Hu Chunhua whose had 2 regional offices and 1 in central government. But this is a precedent breaking congress after all.

I'm going to risk my internet points a little and say that premier is going to Hu Chunhua. He is of the correct age for 2 PBSC terms with no precedent break. If he becomes premier, it works out for 2 terms.

Click to expand...