Chinese Internal Politics

FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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alfreddango said:
Can someone with more knowledge/insight comment on the hu jintao thing and the new cc nominees?
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1. CYL: near total purge as predicted @crash8pilot . CYL faction is the faction of Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, Li Keqiang, etc and was based on the youth league. There were 2 subfactions though, the Wang Yang right wing faction got purged while the left, such as Hu Chunhua, stayed. Hu Jintao being led out was symbolic of the removal of the CYL faction, despite himself not being from the liberal right subfaction.

2. Hu Chunhua: 99% PBSC role since he remained on CC and was already Politburo. I may be proven right about him within a few days. I'm seeing him in a high ranking role and being a 2-3 termer. Even though he is CYL faction, he's not from the liberal branch, he is left/security focused due to his roles in managing border/unstable regions (Tibet, Inner Mongolia) and his work in Xi's flagship rural poverty alleviation projects. My guess is that due to the success of projects under his portfolio - stabilizing Tibet, stabilizing Inner Mongolia and beating rural poverty - he is headed high. Due to his youth and success, I see him staying for the long term.

3. Wang Yi: I analyzed this about being major move for Japan, as Wang Yi speaks native Japanese and was ambassador to Japan. He is one of the few recent FMs to not be a fluent English speaker or ambassador to the US. People say he speaks fluent English, but I've only seen him give speeches in Chinese and
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. This to me says Asian focused diplomacy and a play for deepening Japan and ASEAN ties. The time may have come to liberate Japan from the boot.
 
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ACuriousPLAFan

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FairAndUnbiased said:
1. CYL: near total purge as predicted @crash8pilot . CYL faction is the faction of Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, Li Keqiang, etc and was based on the youth league. There were 2 subfactions though, the Wang Yang right wing faction got purged while the left, such as Hu Chunhua, stayed. Hu Jintao being led out was symbolic of the removal of the CYL faction, despite himself not being from the liberal right subfaction.

2. Hu Chunhua: 99% PBSC role since he remained on CC and was already Politburo. I may be proven right about him within a few days. I'm seeing him in a high ranking role and being a 2-3 termer. Even though he is CYL faction, he's not from the liberal branch, he is left/security focused due to his roles in managing border/unstable regions (Tibet, Inner Mongolia) and his work in Xi's flagship rural poverty alleviation projects. My guess is that due to the success of projects under his portfolio - stabilizing Tibet, stabilizing Inner Mongolia and beating rural poverty - he is headed high. Due to his youth and success, I see him staying for the long term.

3. Wang Yi: I analyzed this about being major move for Japan, as Wang Yi speaks native Japanese and was ambassador to Japan. He is one of the few recent FMs to not be a fluent English speaker or ambassador to the US. People say he speaks fluent English, but I've only seen him give speeches in Chinese and
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. This to me says Asian focused diplomacy and a play for deepening Japan and ASEAN ties. The time may have come to liberate Japan from the boot.
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What is the full name of CYL?
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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Biscuits

Major
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FairAndUnbiased said:
1. CYL: near total purge as predicted @crash8pilot . CYL faction is the faction of Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, Li Keqiang, etc and was based on the youth league. There were 2 subfactions though, the Wang Yang right wing faction got purged while the left, such as Hu Chunhua, stayed. Hu Jintao being led out was symbolic of the removal of the CYL faction, despite himself not being from the liberal right subfaction.

2. Hu Chunhua: 99% PBSC role since he remained on CC and was already Politburo. I may be proven right about him within a few days. I'm seeing him in a high ranking role and being a 2-3 termer. Even though he is CYL faction, he's not from the liberal branch, he is left/security focused due to his roles in managing border/unstable regions (Tibet, Inner Mongolia) and his work in Xi's flagship rural poverty alleviation projects. My guess is that due to the success of projects under his portfolio - stabilizing Tibet, stabilizing Inner Mongolia and beating rural poverty - he is headed high. Due to his youth and success, I see him staying for the long term.

3. Wang Yi: I analyzed this about being major move for Japan, as Wang Yi speaks native Japanese and was ambassador to Japan. He is one of the few recent FMs to not be a fluent English speaker or ambassador to the US. People say he speaks fluent English, but I've only seen him give speeches in Chinese and
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. This to me says Asian focused diplomacy and a play for deepening Japan and ASEAN ties. The time may have come to liberate Japan from the boot.
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Absolutely insane feat of diplomacy if China can peacefully finesse Japan, a country with leadership filled with nazi descendents.

But you know what, a decade ago, if you asked me what are chances that the Saudis, a salafist fundamentalist monarchy and core American ally, would actively cause troubles from within and seemingly defect, without China firing a single shot, I'd have said the chances were 0.

Maybe Japan isn't a lost cause if China can appeal to the younger people that don't have imperial ambitions. At the same time, among the Japanazi there are both pro American and anti American factions. The whole LDP consists of imperial Japan ideologues, but China could argue for a Japanese inclusion on equal terms in the international world order, with no restrictions and national freedom, in exchange for siding against USA. After all, one of original major goals of Japan was to attain equal status with the dominant world order, and that is something China can offer, even if Japan was a historical enemy.

ACuriousPLAFan said:
What is the full name of CYL?
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Communist Youth League
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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Biscuits said:
Absolutely insane feat of diplomacy if China can peacefully finesse Japan, a country with leadership filled with nazi descendents.

But you know what, a decade ago, if you asked me what are chances that the Saudis, a salafist fundamentalist monarchy and core American ally, would actively cause troubles from within and seemingly defect, without China firing a single shot, I'd have said the chances were 0.

Maybe Japan isn't a lost cause if China can appeal to the younger people that don't have imperial ambitions. At the same time, among the Japanazi there are both pro American and anti American factions. The whole LDP consists of imperial Japan ideologues, but China could argue for a Japanese inclusion on equal terms in the international world order, with no restrictions and national freedom, in exchange for siding against USA. After all, one of original major goals of Japan was to attain equal status with the dominant world order, and that is something China can offer, even if Japan was a historical enemy.
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when I saw Wang Yi staying on despite his age + the defection of the Saudis, I knew that getting Japan was on the table. Japanese youth are statistically more pro China than ever. Chinese and Japanese culture are similar in many ways. To get Japan on side or neutral is actually relatively low hanging fruit due to both push and pull factors. LDP fascists know that their time is drawing to a close and Japan is sinking economically and demographically. They know that Japan will never be able to physically move away from China, and China only grows stronger. This is the time for Japan to cash in its Sinosphere cards while it still can. Otherwise the end result - a neutralized Japan - might still happen, just a few years later and with much more pain, and with Japanese having 0 leverage in the end.

What I see is within 10 years, Japan finally cashing in its sinosphere cards, apologizing for WW2, never visiting Yasukuni again, and at minimum, pledging that it strictly adheres to Article 9 of the Japanese constitution and neither Japan nor its allies will engage in offensive action from Japanese soil. This might as well be an expulsion of some country from Japan, as the main purpose of some country in Japan is not to protect Japan, but to keep Japan down and to use it as a giant military base that they don't have to care about if it gets wrecked.
 
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alfreddango

Junior Member
Registered Member
Thank you, FairAndUnbiased. Wrt
FairAndUnbiased said:
1. CYL: near total purge as predicted
Click to expand...
and hu jintao being carried away, do you think that was done on purpose for everyone to see?
If xi wanted to have him removed, he could have just prevented hu from attending the session.
Why wait and have everyone see? Idk I’m not accustomed to modern chinese rites of succession, so to speak, so this seems a bit excessive to me.
Of course it’s an entirely different story if it’s done to publicly purge the rival faction.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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Registered Member
alfreddango said:
Thank you, FairAndUnbiased. Wrt

and hu jintao being carried away, do you think that was done on purpose for everyone to see?
If xi wanted to have him removed, he could have just prevented hu from attending the session.
Why wait and have everyone see? Idk I’m not accustomed to modern chinese rites of succession, so to speak, so this seems a bit excessive to me.
Of course it’s an entirely different story if it’s done to publicly purge the rival faction.
Click to expand...
IDK, from what I read, Hu was led out after voting for CC but before voting on any policy.
 
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