Chinese Internal Politics

FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
crash8pilot said:
I shall preface that I am not the biggest fan of Jiang Zemin, but Hu Jintao and his CYL faction stagnated progress Deng and Jiang set in motion just to cater to the urban poor (not saying poor people aren't important, but at the end of the day you need to bake a bigger cake to feed everyone before worrying about dividing the cake evenly amongst the population). You can say whatever you want in hindsight, but the PRC could've gotten a lot further along during the 2008 financial crisis and had the US+EU by the balls if it weren't hindered by Hu's economic policies. The country stagnated on the innovation department, and we've been stuck with the stereotype of "copying the West and making cheap shit". Add severe corruption into the mix and China was trending downwards before the 18th Party Congress, you know its bad when Party leadership as well as its elders decided it was untenable for the CYL to continue to lead the country.

Hu Chunhua being a member of the CYL has:
  1. A proverbial barrel pointed to his head - Xi didn't have enough sway not to include Hu in the Politburo when the 19th Party Congress convened, he's kept Hu on the Politburo but he treads a dangerous line. There's a reason Hu spats more of the Party line and mention's Xi in practically every one of his speeches than any of Xi's allies does.
  2. Insignificant areas of management in his portfolio as Vice Premier... He's not in the Central Committee Leading Groups on Economic and Financial Affairs, Foreign Affairs, Hong Kong and Macau, Taiwan etc (or at least the ones that matter, à la nobody in the US gives a crap about who the Secretary of the Interior is, or who runs the Department of Agriculture). He is essentially paraded around during ceremonial events, especially when Xi doesn't want to personally meet with foreign dignitaries or even send people from his inner circle to represent him, and as such sends someone who obviously has no sway on policy making like Hu Chunhua instead. Therefore I wouldn't say he has any policy to execute in the first place.
Even if Hu Chunhua ultimately becomes Premier, he will not be in Xi's inner circle and isn't someone Xi trusts.
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Ok I guess we have fundamentally different understanding of what the CYL faction contributed. Luckily it will only be a few days before this idea is put to the test.

My concrete prediction: Hu Chunhua will be on the PBSC, and not as lowest rank either.
 
C

canonicalsadhu

Junior Member
Registered Member
crash8pilot said:
I wouldn't be against Li Qiang joining the Standing Committee or even becoming Premier for the following reasons:
  1. The State Council, which the Premier leads, has become an empty shell since Xi rose to power. He did so to undermine Li Keqiang, who is his factional rival. The State Council only manages the day-to-day operations of the government, it has minimal to no say on the formation of policy. Xi has effectively exercised the functions (especially policy making) of the State Council through the Central Committee.... and in particular the Offices/Leading Small Groups under the Central Committee, which are in turn led by technocrats Xi trusts. As such it doesn't matter who becomes Premier in the 20th Party Congress
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But the premier runs several important LSGs, no?
You also mention that the state council has no say in the formation of policy - but that's not its purpose. It's the executive branch of the gov not the legislative. It still serves the important function of implementing policies and engaging all local gov in the process. One recent example is the stimulus policies of the state council back in June.
 
O

Overlord

New Member
Registered Member
lq
crash8pilot said:
I shall preface that I am not the biggest fan of Jiang Zemin, but Hu Jintao and his CYL faction stagnated progress Deng and Jiang set in motion just to cater to the urban poor (not saying poor people aren't important, but at the end of the day you need to bake a bigger cake to feed everyone before worrying about dividing the cake evenly amongst the population). You can say whatever you want in hindsight, but the PRC could've gotten a lot further along during the 2008 financial crisis and had the US+EU by the balls if it weren't hindered by Hu's economic policies. The country stagnated on the innovation department, and we've been stuck with the stereotype of "copying the West and making cheap shit". Add severe corruption into the mix and China was trending downwards before the 18th Party Congress, you know its bad when Party leadership as well as its elders decided it was untenable for the CYL to continue to lead the country.

Hu Chunhua being a member of the CYL has:
  1. A proverbial barrel pointed to his head - Xi didn't have enough sway not to include Hu in the Politburo when the 19th Party Congress convened, he's kept Hu on the Politburo but he treads a dangerous line. There's a reason Hu spats more of the Party line and mention's Xi in practically every one of his speeches than any of Xi's allies does.
  2. Insignificant areas of management in his portfolio as Vice Premier... He's not in the Central Committee Leading Groups on Economic and Financial Affairs, Foreign Affairs, Hong Kong and Macau, Taiwan etc (or at least the ones that matter, à la nobody in the US gives a crap about who the Secretary of the Interior is, or who runs the Department of Agriculture). He is essentially paraded around during ceremonial events, especially when Xi doesn't want to personally meet with foreign dignitaries or even send people from his inner circle to represent him, and as such sends someone who obviously has no sway on policy making like Hu Chunhua instead. Therefore I wouldn't say he has any policy to execute in the first place.
Even if Hu Chunhua ultimately becomes Premier, he will not be in Xi's inner circle and isn't someone Xi trusts.
Click to expand...
Wasn't it due to Jiang zemin secretly controlling army & somehow influencing the government, which has made hu quite weak, that's why what I heard that they selected xi to do changes & unite the party.
 
O

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
Out of current top guys:

Li Keqiang - out (!)
Li Zhanshu - out
Wang Yang - out
Wang Huning - in (!)
Zhao Leji - in (!)
Han Zheng - out

Hu Chunhua - still in. My prediction seems to be coming true. If he was going to be kicked, then he wouldn't be on the CC at all.
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Li Keqiang was rumoured to be retiring so this isnt surprising.

Hu is in imo. He has proven to be an (excellent) competent executor of Xi's policy so far
 
Last edited:
daifo

daifo

Major
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
Out of current top guys:

Li Keqiang - out (!)
Li Zhanshu - out
Wang Yang - out
Wang Huning - in (!)
Zhao Leji - in (!)
Han Zheng - out

Hu Chunhua - still in. My prediction seems to be coming true. If he was going to be kicked, then he wouldn't be on the CC at all.
Click to expand...
I thought li keqiang wanted to retire??
 
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