On Taiwan, the other thing to remember is that the entire population of China (including the Politburo) have been taught as children that Taiwan is part of China.
Whether you agree with this or not, that is reality.
Chinese Internal Politics
- Thread starter FairAndUnbiased
- Start date
On Taiwan, the other thing to remember is that the entire population of China (including the Politburo) have been taught as children that Taiwan is part of China.
Whether you agree with this or not, that is reality.
Maybe more importantly the ending treaty of ww2 cedes Taiwan to China, if major nations are going to start disputing the foundations of the current world order and UN, you might as well restart ww2 into ww3.
I wouldn't be against Li Qiang joining the Standing Committee or even becoming Premier for the following reasons:
- The State Council, which the Premier leads, has become an empty shell since Xi rose to power. He did so to undermine Li Keqiang, who is his factional rival. The State Council only manages the day-to-day operations of the government, it has minimal to no say on the formation of policy. Xi has effectively exercised the functions (especially policy making) of the State Council through the Central Committee.... and in particular the Offices/Leading Small Groups under the Central Committee, which are in turn led by technocrats Xi trusts. As such it doesn't matter who becomes Premier in the 20th Party Congress, since Xi has demonstrated over the past decade he doesn't really "need" a Premier to effectively govern the country.
- As a side note - He Lifeng, who I predict will gain promotion to the Politburo as Vice Premier and potentially even succeed Han Zheng's place on the Standing Committee, will be in charge of economic/trade affairs of the PRC and to a large extent exercise the "powers" of a Premier as Liu He has in the 19th Party Congress.
- Li Qiang was placed in an almost impossible position leading Shanghai. Putting his foot down on COVID upsets foreign businesses as well as to a certain extent the overall local economy of the PRC, and yet not being as strict on COVID risks harming the local population of Shanghai as well as its surrounding provinces. At the end of the day the CPC in its current iteration will never win the publicity war, especially when you have news outlets like the BBC and CNN setting the narrative on the global stage. The Party has communicated over and over again that their COVID policy is to pursue Dynamic Zero (动态清零) rather than Absolute Zero (完全清零)... and yet barely anybody knows the difference, I'd wish you luck if you had to explain it to the non-Chinese speaking population. Getting back to the point I'm trying to make - I'm not saying Li did a good job handling the outbreak in Shanghai, I'm saying I don't envy the job he was given, and that at the end of the day he made the most out of the hand he was dealt.
- Li Qiang was Xi's chief of staff when Xi was Party Secretary of Zhejiang. Li is ultimately someone Xi trusts (what's known as 一把手). Moreover you don't become Party Secretary of a provincial-level municipality like Shanghai based solely on political connection and patronage, as the Party membership as well as it's elders would not allow it. You ultimately must have a certain level of competency. I'd rather Li occupy a spot on the Standing Committee than have someone from Xi's rivalling faction (I'm thinking in particular of Hu Chunhua, and to a certain extent Wang Yang), which runs the risk of undermining Xi and his succession plan as well as his overall legacy.
- In addition Li Qiang has maintained a good reputation with foreign businesses, so promoting him to the Standing Committee could ease the concerns of the West (or at least those that don't have decoupling on their minds). It'll serve a similar function as Xi keeping Wang Yang, an economic liberal, on the 19th Standing Committee.
Hu Chunhua not being in the PBSC would be bad precedent, as it would mean that it has evolved into a winner take all situation without regard for seniority or experience. Hu Chunhua is also far from a liberal.
Hu Chunhua and the CYL are populists. Them coming to power runs the risk of stagnating the country's growth and undoing all the progress Xi has made.
Li Qiang isn't even vice premier, he might be promoted to the standing committee, but if he were to become premier it would look like people are being promoted simply because Xi likes them, irrespective of performance. Shanghai clearly messed up when other cities did not. If he were to be promoted, other officials would conclude that all that matters is what Xi thinks of them, not how well they did objectively. Western media, and I'd include SCMP in that, just want to push their narrative that Xi is like Stalin and quality of government policy is going down compared to Hu and Wen
How? By what mechanism does Hu have of undoing Xi's progress, and in what area? The big criticism of CYL in the past was corruption and inaction, that is not going to happen with Xi on top. Hu Chunhua has proven to be a good executor of Xi policy.
It's funny but also so interesting that Chinese politics are seem to be so Stalinist and so open and liberal at the same time. It's impressive. Bravo PRC
I shall preface that I am not the biggest fan of Jiang Zemin, but Hu Jintao and his CYL faction stagnated progress Deng and Jiang set in motion just to cater to the urban poor (not saying poor people aren't important, but at the end of the day you need to bake a bigger cake to feed everyone before worrying about dividing the cake evenly amongst the population). You can say whatever you want in hindsight, but the PRC could've gotten a lot further along during the 2008 financial crisis and had the US+EU by the balls if it weren't hindered by Hu's economic policies. The country stagnated on the innovation department, and we've been stuck with the stereotype of "copying the West and making cheap shit". Add severe corruption into the mix and China was trending downwards before the 18th Party Congress, you know its bad when Party leadership as well as its elders decided it was untenable for the CYL to continue to lead the country.
Hu Chunhua being a member of the CYL has:
- A proverbial barrel pointed to his head - Xi didn't have enough sway not to include Hu in the Politburo when the 19th Party Congress convened, he's kept Hu on the Politburo but he treads a dangerous line. There's a reason Hu spats more of the Party line and mention's Xi in practically every one of his speeches than any of Xi's allies does.
- Insignificant areas of management in his portfolio as Vice Premier... He's not in the Central Committee Leading Groups on Economic and Financial Affairs, Foreign Affairs, Hong Kong and Macau, Taiwan etc (or at least the ones that matter, à la nobody in the US gives a crap about who the Secretary of the Interior is, or who runs the Department of Agriculture). He is essentially paraded around during ceremonial events, especially when Xi doesn't want to personally meet with foreign dignitaries or even send people from his inner circle to represent him, and as such sends someone who obviously has no sway on policy making like Hu Chunhua instead. Therefore I wouldn't say he has any policy to execute in the first place.