Chinese Geopolitics

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Lezt

Junior Member
port_08 said:
The only "nearest" challenger of any value is Japan (but realistically not a chance as Japan would be left behind as years goes by). It could be 2 decades or more before China reaching parity with US depending on its economic planning success to turn itself into high income country, but its a very formidable task looking at the population and size of the country. Securing raw materials and energy for future growth, developed the necessary technological know how and innovation, having a well educated population, increasing urbanization rate. By then China would be a quite a different...having 4 times as large an economy comparing around her neighbours.
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Projections are simply just that, speculation.

I don't think that China will follow the USA's path; China is already much more urbanized than any other country in the world, with the Greater Beijing area (Beijing, Tianjin & Hebei) having around 100 million people; the guangzhou area (Guangzhou, HK, shenzhen, foshan, dongguan) is 50 millions; greater shanghai area is around 100 million people.

But yeah, educated population, energy resource security; is all important, but the future is still uncertain.
 
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port_08

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The Yomiuri Shimbun A joint statement issued by the Japanese and U.S. governments on Friday said the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty applies to the Senkaku Islands, around which China has been engaged in repeated coercive actions.
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Some people have other thoughts..

[video=youtube;ToZElCmCikE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToZElCmCikE[/video]
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
port_08 said:
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The Yomiuri Shimbun A joint statement issued by the Japanese and U.S. governments on Friday said the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty applies to the Senkaku Islands, around which China has been engaged in repeated coercive actions.
...
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Sounds like Obama feels he hasn't taken enough of a beating from Putin, he wants to pick a fight with Xi as well.
 
Blackstone

Blackstone

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port_08 said:
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The Yomiuri Shimbun A joint statement issued by the Japanese and U.S. governments on Friday said the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty applies to the Senkaku Islands, around which China has been engaged in repeated coercive actions.
...

Some people have other thoughts..

[video=youtube;ToZElCmCikE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToZElCmCikE[/video]
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The US should have returned the Diaoyu islands to Taiwan in 1971.
 
Blackstone

Blackstone

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solarz said:
Sounds like Obama feels he hasn't taken enough of a beating from Putin, he wants to pick a fight with Xi as well.
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Not even close. Americans are tired of wars, and Obama is very much aligned with the people, on that topic anyway. China also doesn't want war, and Xi has been charting a careful path to both maintain China's ownership of Diaoyu islands and not cause conflicts with Japan and the US. To his credit, Abe has also done a great job of asserting Japanese administration of Diaoyu, and pressuring Washington to deal with Beijing. Good Kabuki theater by all sides, but the bottom line is there will be no war.
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Blackstone said:
Not even close. Americans are tired of wars, and Obama is very much aligned with the people, on that topic anyway. China also doesn't want war, and Xi has been charting a careful path to both maintain China's ownership of Diaoyu islands and not cause conflicts with Japan and the US. To his credit, Abe has also done a great job of asserting Japanese administration of Diaoyu, and pressuring Washington to deal with Beijing. Good Kabuki theater by all sides, but the bottom line is there will be no war.
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A fight doesn't have to be a war. Nobody seriously believes that Putin will go to war with US, but that hasn't prevented him from giving Obama a serious beating, diplomatically.

Expect to see retaliatory moves from China shortly.
 
TerraN_EmpirE

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Blackstone said:
The US should have returned the Diaoyu islands to Taiwan in 1971.
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should have? Perhaps. Could have? Another story. The PRC has had a rule, if you officially recognized the ROC then the PRC doesn't recognize you. Remember the PRC considers the ROC a rouge regime. in order to keep relations between the US or any nation and the PRC and ROC the US has to play fast and loose. The Roc embassy is operated as a think tank well the PRC embassy is a full embassy. Dealings are done in a near official capacity with out official recognition. Through this the US can sell arms and supply support. But handing over territory demands Official recognition. If the US government did that The PRC would consider it as a sign the US wanted to break relations and the PRC who officially considers the ROC it's property would be doing the same thing its doing now. Only without the SDF there. The Smaller ROC navy would be out of its league, and the PRC would have total control of not only the islands but also the seas around them allowing them to isolate the ROC. The US Could also not give them to the PRC as that would have been a green light to them for the invasion of Taiwan. Japan was more or less given administration as a form of safe keeping. A way of allowing the islands to be maintained for a day when relationships in the Pacific allow for peaceful development with out the looming threat of invasion.
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
TerraN_EmpirE said:
should have? Perhaps. Could have? Another story. The PRC has had a rule, if you officially recognized the ROC then the PRC doesn't recognize you. Remember the PRC considers the ROC a rouge regime. in order to keep relations between the US or any nation and the PRC and ROC the US has to play fast and loose. The Roc embassy is operated as a think tank well the PRC embassy is a full embassy. Dealings are done in a near official capacity with out official recognition. Through this the US can sell arms and supply support. But handing over territory demands Official recognition. If the US government did that The PRC would consider it as a sign the US wanted to break relations and the PRC who officially considers the ROC it's property would be doing the same thing its doing now. Only without the SDF there. The Smaller ROC navy would be out of its league, and the PRC would have total control of not only the islands but also the seas around them allowing them to isolate the ROC. The US Could also not give them to the PRC as that would have been a green light to them for the invasion of Taiwan. Japan was more or less given administration as a form of safe keeping. A way of allowing the islands to be maintained for a day when relationships in the Pacific allow for peaceful development with out the looming threat of invasion.
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Errrr.... Up until 1979, the US still considered the ROC as the legitimate government of China.
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Sometimes, diplomacy is just a strategy in war. Other times, war, or the threat of war, is just a tool in diplomacy.

Obama's promise is empty, because there is zero chance of China ever militarily invading the Diaoyu Islands. The reason is simple: you don't invade what you can't defend!

The value of the Diaoyu Islands, aside from national pride, lies in the fact that it gives its owner access to an EEZ that contains vast oil reserves. In other words, the possession of Diaoyu Islands is just a way to legitimize the exploitation of nearby oceanic resources.

Unless China is able to completely push out US-Japan naval forces out of the area, there is no strategic purpose in doing a military landing on those islands. And if China was able to achieve the former, there would be no point in doing a landing in the first place!

A far more concrete step would be for China to begin unilateral exploitation of those undersea oilfields. Should that happen, Japan would have no grounds to invoke the mutual-defense treaty with the US.
 
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