Chinese Geopolitics

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port_08

Junior Member
Re: China seizes Jp ship for war reparation

LesAdieux said:
this has created a new dimension in the conflict.

China renounced the right for war reparation at state level, but individuals still have their own rights to make claims. in the past Chinese courts didn't take this kind of cases, so many took their cases to the jp courts, which always got rejected.
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The Chinese values relationship, 'guanxi', if the diplomacy good, these cases difficult to get approval from the Chinese court, if relationship bad, then it will be handle according to the law...:eek:
 
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port_08

Junior Member
Lezt said:
Instead of throwing words around about what is strategy and tactics, to undermine the tribute system, one need to understand what a tribute system is.

1) Have a powerful military to guard against raiders, a protected market
2) trades to happen on the terms the host country decides
3) have a very large market to attract trade potential - the largest market

Everything you have said is consistent with China following the tribute system thinking.
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I'm sure this can be said about the US or any nation, just a made up term that can be apply anywhere for the common sense that any nation worth its salt wants to be the numero uno #1 in the world.

Sure, we can see the Chinese are building up its navy and continue to do so, sure China want to win win according to their term and sure it wants be the biggest market in the world. The world biggest economy and biggest market and now with the military to back it up. When you are this big, even you does not want or intent...every move a Giant make will leave residual quake and its only natural. We just have to get use to a big, 'bad' China...
 
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Lezt

Junior Member
port_08 said:
I'm sure this can be said about the US or any nation, just a made up term that can be apply anywhere for the common sense that any nation worth its salt wants to be the numero uno #1 in the world.

Sure, we can see the Chinese are building up its navy and continue to do so, sure China want to win win according to their term and sure it wants be the biggest market in the world. The world biggest economy and biggest market and now with the military to back it up. When you are this big, even you does not want or intent...every move a Giant make will leave residual quake and its only natural. We just have to get use to a big, 'bad' China...
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Yes and No.

Only big hegemonic countries can do it; and in history, that is only the USA and China; and briefly European powers vis their colonies and the soviet union vs her satellites, but not vis-a-vis other powers.

It is only the USA that managed to bend global trade around her system and to her benefit. Similarly, it was also Imperial China that managed it before - to the point that Rome complained about the trade deficit with Han China; like the US is complaining about the trade deficit with China nowadays.
 
bajingan

bajingan

Senior Member
I think as the Ukraine crisis showed the world, that the only way to deter US and her allies, is by pursuing nuclear parity and MAD, as simple as that.

I hope the lesson that Ukraine crisis taught, will finally persuades Chinese leadership to abandon the minimum deterrence strategy that does not make sense at the first place.

and if China still insist on having tiny nuclear arsenal the size of Britain's, then maybe there is something that we don't know about, like is it possible that the PLA are unable to produce more nukes? lack of fissile materials? because I will be utterly confused and dumbfounded that after how Russia showed the world that if you have nuclear parity with the US then you can act with near impunity combined with Japanese provocative behavior in the last few years, and the obvious US strategy of containment, that the entire politburo is not at the very least looking to increase China puny nuclear arsenal.
 
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port_08

Junior Member
bajingan said:
I think as the Ukraine crisis showed the world, that the only way to deter US and her allies, is by pursuing nuclear parity and MAD, as simple as that.

I hope the lesson that Ukraine crisis taught, will finally persuades Chinese leadership to abandon the minimum deterrence strategy that does not make sense at the first place.

and if China still insist on having tiny nuclear arsenal the size of Britain's, then maybe there is something that we don't know about, like is it possible that the PLA are unable to produce more nukes? lack of fissile materials? because I will be utterly confused and dumbfounded that after how Russia showed the world that if you have nuclear parity with the US then you can act with near impunity combined with Japanese provocative behavior in the last few years, and the obvious US strategy of containment, that the entire politburo is not at the very least looking to increase China puny nuclear arsenal.
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Again, it's NOT the quantity that matters but the delivery. Even a tiny country like Israel, having 1 nuclear bomb but capable of delivering them would be a threat but they would not survive a counter blow. You need to able to survive them (is your country large enough? some nook or cranies where you can hide from the fallout?), are you able to deliver to their face where it hurts? Therefore only a handful of countries fit this criteria.Making a lot of nukes and maintaining them would be a hassle, because the point is not to use them. Really, who in the right mind want to pollute the Earth where sum of the matter is fix. Is like your radioactive shitting in an aquarium just for the fun of it.

Waste of money spend time guarding, maintaining and secure these nukes. You only need certain amount until strategic value is a diminishing return for you.
 
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port_08

Junior Member
Lezt said:
It is only the USA that managed to bend global trade around her system and to her benefit. Similarly, it was also Imperial China that managed it before - to the point that Rome complained about the trade deficit with Han China; like the US is complaining about the trade deficit with China nowadays.
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Just a thought, if East Asia forms a union like the European union, only China have the muscle to forcefully economically or military do so in the future. China may need to slowly annex each of her surrounding countries to form a large empire but first....take back Taiwan. Slow and steady wins the game.
 
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PanAsian

Major
port_08 said:
Just a thought, if East Asia forms a union like the European union, only China have the muscle to forcefully economically or military do so in the future. China may need to slowly annex each of her surrounding countries to form a large empire but first....take back Taiwan. Slow and steady wins the game.
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Clearly you do not know how the European Union works nor how it was formed, nobody annexes anybody else. I am also going to call 'troll'.
 
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port_08

Junior Member
PanAsian said:
Clearly you do not know how the European Union works nor how it was formed, nobody annexes anybody else. I am also going to call 'troll'.
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Maybe the term here, subjugating another nation can make use of economic means not necessarily military. Take the case for example Germany, it still can be an economic manufacturing powerhouse taking all the jobs and benefits of being in Euro and using the single currency to her benefit. Hitler once fail before, but they are doing it "smarter" this time around. No bloodshed, no nothing but slow painful squeezing Greek "death".

What I'm trying to say, China also can do this "smartly"...nothing pull out guns or missile...slowly squeeze Taiwan using their superior economic attraction, that Taiwanese so desperate will drop their pants and jump to the bosom of Communist mainland motherland without need of firing a single shot.

There are many ways to fight a way....and annexing. Keep them hook on the Chinese opium...or Yuan.;)
 
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Lezt

Junior Member
port_08 said:
Just a thought, if East Asia forms a union like the European union, only China have the muscle to forcefully economically or military do so in the future. China may need to slowly annex each of her surrounding countries to form a large empire but first....take back Taiwan. Slow and steady wins the game.
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I think, it is a much more complicated issue than that. the EU function very differently and is very different than the possible Asian union. Annexation and occupation is an expensive operation.

i.e. the UK+France+Germany+Italy GDP out of the other EU nations outweigh the GDP of China, and the EU GDP out-weight that of the USA.

Japan+Korea+ASEAN would just be equal that of China.

This is also true in terms of military assets. EU is on paper, formidable, but Japan+Korea+ASEAN is not that much.

Of course, unions are not as united as countries, as the paralysis of the EU had shown. So if Russia, with 1/5 the GDP of the EU and somewhat military parity to the EU can give so much pressure to the EU, I doubt that China, with equal GDP and if not military superiority to an Asian Union, would not have issues with an AU.
 
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port_08

Junior Member
Lezt said:
I think, it is a much more complicated issue than that. the EU function very differently and is very different than the possible Asian union. Annexation and occupation is an expensive operation.

i.e. the UK+France+Germany+Italy GDP out of the other EU nations outweigh the GDP of China, and the EU GDP out-weight that of the USA.

Japan+Korea+ASEAN would just be equal that of China.

This is also true in terms of military assets. EU is on paper, formidable, but Japan+Korea+ASEAN is not that much.

Of course, unions are not as united as countries, as the paralysis of the EU had shown. So if Russia, with 1/5 the GDP of the EU and somewhat military parity to the EU can give so much pressure to the EU, I doubt that China, with equal GDP and if not military superiority to an Asian Union, would not have issues with an AU.
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The only "nearest" challenger of any value is Japan (but realistically not a chance as Japan would be left behind as years goes by). It could be 2 decades or more before China reaching parity with US depending on its economic planning success to turn itself into high income country, but its a very formidable task looking at the population and size of the country. Securing raw materials and energy for future growth, developed the necessary technological know how and innovation, having a well educated population, increasing urbanization rate. By then China would be a quite a different...having 4 times as large an economy comparing around her neighbours.
 
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