Chinese Economics Thread

[broadsword]

The yen can be traded freely on the currency market with NO intervention by the Japanese government meaning it is completely under control by the will of the market. It may rise and it may fall BUT it has nothing to do with PROTECTIONISM.
Protectionism is basically a mechanism or blockade placed by the government in forms of regulations and law targeting specifically import items resulting to artificially hiking up the price or making import goods and service or difficult to enter the market on their own providing a favorable situation for domestic manufacturers. This kind of mechanism is accepted by the global society in a limited capacity so that the developing nations can start their own domestic industry but is placed under tight scrutiny once the start up companies start trying to export those item into the global market.

You don't need to prove anything at all. And your rambling about the quake and the subsequent prospective partake by foreigners, even if true, is totally unnecessary. Stay on point. Depreciation is also protectionism and is known by all.

The 45% depreciation benefit to the Japanese is already recognised by all, especially the Trump team.

As for diminishing capacity of batteries, it's a well known phenomenon that most all have encountered with their smartphones and various other rechargeable batteries. You can find a very good explanation on Wiki concerning this phenomenon.
In other words I really do not need to prove anything on this subject since it is known by most all.

You still have not answered my question. Who does not know about battery depreciation? But do you know it is only a part of the whole equation? Do you know there are other factors as well in order to arrive at the cost-benefit analysis over the life of the EV? Can you name the others?

 

[Inst]

Chinese quality cannot be characterized as uniformly bad, but it can be characterized as of variable quality. There are Chinese firms that are low-margin fly-by-night ventures, and there are Chinese firms that emphasize quality, even adopting a pseudo-Japanese corporate culture--see Broad.

Regarding Chinese batteries, BYD's LiFePO4 chemistry shows minimal degradation over time, and is warrantied for 12 years. It's not about the corner cutting, it's just a matter of physics. There is a wide community of Chinese LiFePO4 makers, and some of them may cut corners, but consider the Nissan LEAF, for instance, which has terrible depreciation values because Nissan chose a medium-capapcity low-resiliency formula.

As to the Chinese economy, the CCP should reinvent its SOEs as hedge funds and venture capital funds; this allows them to get rid of their inefficient SOE operations and instead maintain partial ownership, capital appreciation, and dividends of formerly privately-operated businesses.

 

[SamuraiBlue]

Chinese quality cannot be characterized as uniformly bad, but it can be characterized as of variable quality. There are Chinese firms that are low-margin fly-by-night ventures, and there are Chinese firms that emphasize quality, even adopting a pseudo-Japanese corporate culture--see Broad.

Regarding Chinese batteries, BYD's LiFePO4 chemistry shows minimal degradation over time, and is warrantied for 12 years. It's not about the corner cutting, it's just a matter of physics. There is a wide community of Chinese LiFePO4 makers, and some of them may cut corners, but consider the Nissan LEAF, for instance, which has terrible depreciation values because Nissan chose a medium-capapcity low-resiliency formula.

As to the Chinese economy, the CCP should reinvent its SOEs as hedge funds and venture capital funds; this allows them to get rid of their inefficient SOE operations and instead maintain partial ownership, capital appreciation, and dividends of formerly privately-operated businesses.

I never limited to Chinese batteries.
As you say it's a physical phenomenon that is still waiting for a solution at the moment meaning the present EV will face the same fate as your smart phone regardless of brand.

 

[broadsword]

As for engine design yes, I believe one of the Japanese companies filed a complaint.

I am still waiting for you to provide the source to corroborate your claim.

After five years they will seriously regret their choice once their batteries starts to fail. Nothing against Chinese EVs but we all know that capacity of batteries degrades over the years and cannot hold up half the capacity after five years. It's going to cost an arm and a leg to replace those batteries.
Basically EVs are a stop gaps until fuel cells become main stream(or people comes up with batteries that can maintain capacity over extend periods).

As I pointed out before, we don't deny batteries depreciate. But do you have data or studies to show that EVs are less cost-effective than gasoline or fuel cells over the life of the vehicle? I include gasoline also, for comparison since you said it "cost an arm and a leg to replace those batteries." Buying a new car is not cheap too.

Do you have any idea how much LiFePO4 depreciate after five or ten years?

 

[Equation]

Well said Mr. President Xi Jinping!

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When Chinese President

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meets with U.S. President

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in Florida, the message he will likely bring is: don't blame China for your problems.

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[SamuraiBlue]

As I pointed out before, we don't deny batteries depreciate. But do you have data or studies to show that EVs are less cost-effective than gasoline or fuel cells over the life of the vehicle? I include gasoline also, for comparison since you said it "cost an arm and a leg to replace those batteries." Buying a new car is not cheap too.

Do you have any idea how much LiFePO4 depreciate after five or ten years?

You don't need studies, you only need to look at resale prices of used cars and compare it with the cost of replacing batteries.
You'll find pricing of battery replacement on various sites. Tesla uses batteries similar to AAA batteries due to it overall supply on the market and cost around 12,000 dollars US for the batteries alone not including labor(they have 7000 sticks in them). As for life expectancy of batteries since they are the same as AAA batteries their life expectancy will be similar as well.
Life cycle of LIFEPO4 is said to be 1000-2000 charge-discharge so if you are using your car every day 5 years would be an average. There is also degradation of batteries known as Calendar loss resulting from the passage of time and is measured from the maximum state of charge.

 

[SamuraiBlue]

It looks like China is ready for the next Mega city build out.

Here's how much more steel China will need for its new megacity

China [/a]'s new project to

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will drive steel demand, with the country likely gobbling up an extra 12 to 14 million metric tons of the

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a year if plans are implemented in 10 years, Citi Research analysts said in a note released on Tuesday.

While the amount will just be a minuscule proportion of the nearly 1.63 billion tons in global crude steel production last year according to the World Steel Association, it will nonetheless provide "greater certainty on continuation of Chinese steel demand at high levels," wrote Citi analysts.

alleged dumping of the commodity [/a]on international markets due to domestic over-capacity.

The newest special economic zone of Xiongan in Hebei was announced on Saturday in a bid to boost domestic growth in a province that has been hit by massive job layoffs from heavy industries as China moves to maneuver economic growth away from manufacturing toward services.

Xiongan, south of Beijing, will initially cover 100 sq km (38.6 sq miles) and will be expanded in the long run to 2,000 sq km.

infrastructure [/a], that would provide 12-14 million tons of extra steel demand per year on a current domestic demand rate of about 700 million tons, i.e. about a 2 percent uplift," wrote the analysts.

According to Citi's calculations, around 120 to 140 million tons of steel are required to replicate Shenzhen.

latest incarnation as a startup hub [/a].

With well-connected infrastructure and reasonably high urban density, Xiongan will need 25-30 million tons of steel for residential infrastructure, another 35-40 million tons for the non-residential floor space, 35-40 million tons for the transportation and logistics infrastructure and 25-30 million tons for other utilities and infrastructure, Citi said.

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Talk about the tail wagging the dog. This is absurd.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Talk about the tail wagging the dog. This is absurd.

Look, I understand that Japan has no space to build so much as a storage shack unless its on top of something else but you have to understand that there are other countries in the world with vast expanses of territory that they can build new cities on. Extra land to be developed, you say!? Without 30 stories of people living in 4' x 6' rooms already on top of it?? Boggles the mind! LOL

 

[Inst]

Actually, LiFePO4 has a cycle life that's about 2x as long as other chemistry types. Tesla, in comparison, has an 8 year warranty, and for comparable discharge percentages Tesla-Panasonic NCA has around 1/10th LiFePO4's durability.

 

[Equation]

China is now more favorably to Americans than President Trump?! Say it ain't so!

China is Now More Popular than Trump among Americans, Polls Indicate

Jason Le Miere,Newsweek Wed, Apr 5 6:19 AM PDT

Ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first face-to-face meeting with President Donald Trump, the view of China among Americans has improved substantially, a new survey has indicated. Indeed, China is now more popular than Trump in the United States.

Trump and Xi will sit down at the Republican’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida Thursday for a meeting of the leaders of the world’s two largest economies. After Trump repeatedly rallied against what he claimed were China’s abuses on foreign trade during his campaign, it promises to be a somewhat frosty introduction. And the pair won’t even be able to calm the tension over a round of golf, since Xi doesn't share Trump’s boundless enthusiasm for the game.

But among Americans as a whole, the frosty feelings toward China would appear to be thawing. Forty-four percent of Americans now have a favorable opinion of China, up from 37 percent a year ago,

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. By way of comparison, Trump’s approval ratings have dipped below 40 percent, with

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.


The Pew survey was conducted among 1,505 respondents in the U.S. from Feb. 16 to March 15, 2017; the margin of error was not reported.

Similarly, a smaller percentage of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of China compared to Trump. While 47 percent view China unfavorably, a poll from Investor's Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (IBD/TIPP) indicated that 56 percent disapproved of the U.S. president’s performance.

Much of the softening of Americans’ feelings toward China would appear to be due to a reduction in concerns about trade. Forty-four percent said in the latest Pew survey that the trade deficit with China, which at

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is by far its largest, was a very serious problem, down from 61 percent five years ago.


The Pew report theorizes that the growing relaxation on the issue may be linked to the fact that the percentage of Americans who view the U.S. economic situation as either very or somewhat good has jumped from 44 percent last year to 58 percent in 2017.


Unsurprisingly, there is a sizable split on the China issue between Democrats and Republicans. Among Democrats, 49 percent have a favorable view of China, compared to 41 percent with an unfavorable opinion. For Republicans, just 39 percent view China favorably, while 56 percent have an unfavorable reaction.

A combination of file photos showing Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) at London's Heathrow Airport, October 19, 2015 and U.S. President Donald Trump posing for a photo in New York City, U.S., May 17, 2016. Toby Melville/Lucas Jackson/Reuters

But while Trump may be losing the popularity battle with China, the Chinese leader himself isn't viewed favorably. Just 31 percent of Americans surveyed have at least some confidence in Xi to do the right thing in world affairs, compared with 60 percent who have little or no confidence.

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