Chinese Economics Thread

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
yeah, imagine the country with the largest data center capacity and a ton of capacity coming online, leading the technological frontier on GPUs and LLMs, SpaceX (with by far more space launches than the rest of the world), substantial and well-paid SME employment (as opposed to everyone trying to hide from economic chaos in the public sector or large SOEs) because the financial sector can actually intermediate instead of just giving gigantic C&I loans to favored political cronies.
Imagine the same country with uncontrolled gun violence, one of the worst income disparities, spiking homelessness, highest debt in the world, overestimation of GDP due to services and expensive healthcare with lower life expectancy compared to other developed countries and China.
yes, and the Dodd-Frank Act largely put and end to excessive (residential) real estate speculation through the financial sector
Yeah and China did one better, deflated the bubble without the crash and also made sure if won't happen again. Better than the US.
 

kentchang

Junior Member
Registered Member
yeah, imagine the country with the largest data center capacity and a ton of capacity coming online, leading the technological frontier on GPUs and LLMs, SpaceX (with by far more space launches than the rest of the world), substantial and well-paid SME employment (as opposed to everyone trying to hide from economic chaos in the public sector or large SOEs) because the financial sector can actually intermediate instead of just giving gigantic C&I loans to favored political cronies.

Wouldn't it be funny if a tiny company's (let's call it DeepSeek) with a two-month/$5 million investment in Country C handily beats all of Country A's $50 billion worth of fancy data centers, LLMs, and GPUs? Which do you think is better use of resources? Which one would you say is 'leading the technological frontier'?

The SpaceX business model is copied straight from China's playbook. Left Hand gives business to Right Hand. How does Tesla make real money? Build cars in China. Higher quality and less cost.

The overpaid American work force goes a long way to explain the ever declining US manufacturing sector and global competitiveness. China showed how over-priced most things are. It is called price discovery. In public health, at 100X the investment, US may be able to match China's life expectancy in just ten short years. Of all the metrics, this is really the only one that matters.

If US Steel, Intel, or Boeing must depend on US banks alone, they'd be out of business by now. Thank God US is wise enough to copy China's state-directed industrial policies. Sadly, when the US subsidies run out, they'll still fold. Of course Boeing and US government are never political cronies and 'political contributions' is not legalized bribery.

Any uninformed fool can post the latest link to TOP500 Supercomputer ranking but does that mean US is leading in Exa-scale computing? The same uninformed fool can also show rankings of barbers based on how much they charge for haircuts? Measuring data centers based on revenue is also as laughable.
 
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kentchang

Junior Member
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So China is increasing faster ("estimated electricity from 2022") from a much smaller base

You do know the graph is in absolute TWh of electricity used. Not relative growth. Right?

Surely China with 4X the population, far better 5G coverage, addictions to WeChat and live-streaming, and overall, a much more digital society would have more computing power than the US which is still stuck in the 20th Century? Just common sense right?

Here is a link NOT based on silly revenue but actual raw computing power. Note the number is for state-owned clouds only. Using Exa-FLOPS is the only objective metric as combative fools will argue that the chips used in China are less efficient to wiggle out of the electricity-usage evidence.

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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Fundamental crux of the issue is that China is simultaneously over-financialized and under-financialized at the same time.

By not having functional capital markets that can effectively allocate capital to firms that need it to expand and fund necessary capital projects; it shoves large household savings into either bank accounts that yield 0% or real estate speculation that has no benefit to the real economy but does make small business development and homeownership prohibitively expensive to new homebuyers; instead of real estate being financialized by being used as collateral for commercial real estate developments, it's now financialized by being used as a pure speculative instrument and various short-termism leads to either gigantic financial crises (wealth effects, sentiment shocks, capital flight, etc) or kicking the can down the road.
LOL Drug peddler saying everything is better on drugs. No. China runs down US tech with none of the mechanisms you use to actually rob the poor and enrich the elite. That's what your markets are for, after all, for your politicians to get favors trading with inside knowledge. Instead, China directs those resources through the state and achieves superior results outpacing the entire rest of the world in tech on a daily basis.
The government provisioning public goods like infrastructure is well established but Chinese biotechs needing to go find US-based partners to take their drugs to trial because China has catastrophically apocalyptic equity capital markets that don't allow for effective funding of risky capital projects like clinical trial or the government needing to waste precious time and effort on gigantic VC rounds for SMIC building a foundry because China's dysfunctional and illiquid capital projects blocked it from issuing a bond with a maturity timed to its completion? yeah - that's from China's poor capital markets governance.
"Catasrophically apocalyptic" LOLOL You have a funny way with words. I thought you were talking about the streets of Detroit and California's homeless encampments for a second. Equity markets aren't a problem in China if the government approves of your work. And those that do go through that approval gain the support to make world-beating tech.
Heck, China needed to beg and cry and threaten so that state-owned life insurers and banks would buy China Government Bonds to fund China's unsustainable budget deficits (in part, for infrastructure) because for even those close to the government, they don't trust the risk and liquidity profiles of CGBs while treasury bills are cash equivalents
Oh you have our governments confused. You see in China, the government gives orders and the mega-corps follow (but oddly, you said state-owned so it means they begged and threatened... themselves?). This is different from the US, a land in which it's legal for companies to bribe politicians under the name of lobbying. In that system, the state begs the corporations. Not in ours.
It's an illiquid market (
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) that needed to be super backstopped by the PBoC more or less all the time.
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Not to mention all of China's capital flight (this needs no citation because it happens so much it might as well be common knowledge)
Capital flight is much less than capital gain. Unlike the US, we don't let the rich use their money to run the show, and we're still growing faster in every metric.
The 2008 Great Financial Crisis vs. the ho-hum financial markets of 2023

Is that why China has a real estate meltdown right now since private households couldn't channel private savings anywhere?
Yeah, we deflated that bubble to ensure affordable housng to all and our economy still outgrew every major economy in the world despite already being #1 in PPP. Meanwhile, Americans are screaming about eating the rich.
yes, and the Dodd-Frank Act largely put and end to excessive (residential) real estate speculation through the financial sector
Did a shit job. US home ownership is far less than in China
yeah, imagine the country with the largest data center capacity and a ton of capacity coming online, leading the technological frontier on GPUs and LLMs, SpaceX (with by far more space launches than the rest of the world), substantial and well-paid SME employment (as opposed to everyone trying to hide from economic chaos in the public sector or large SOEs) because the financial sector can actually intermediate instead of just giving gigantic C&I loans to favored political cronies.
You mean the political cronies in DC who clean up billions of dollars every time there's a crash or crisis putting the regular investors in the poor house?
"The dominance of the US, Synergy noted, is mainly down to two key factors – almost 60% of the world’s hyperscale operators are headquartered in the country, including the four biggest, while the US accounts for almost half of all cloud market revenues."

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Looks like China's coming up from behind again for the win. How long to do reckin it'll be on this one before the US gets run down again?
So China is increasing faster ("estimated electricity from 2022") from a much smaller base
And now it's bigger than everyone else combined. Is that supposed to be a dig at China?
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
Keep in mind Chinese data center capacity was actively targeted by US sanctions (data center AI chips was precisely what the US tried to embargo). If this wasn’t the case China would have far more capacity.

Once the chip bottle necks are resolved I expect Chinese capacity to greatly improve.
 

Fatty

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There have been some good signs in China’s economy recently. Some economists still pushing for short-sighted mass welfare to boost consumption. I think important thing right now is to stay the course. If Trump forces the US Fed to lower rates or weakens the dollar like he said then it will offer the PBOC a lot more flexibility if they end up wanting to really unleash massive stimulus.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
If they were truly intelligent, they would have utilised that supposed "Ashkenazi high IQ" to not declare a tech and cold war against China of all nations on earth. American jews really believed their own propaganda that they were "God's Chosen" and thought they could compete and control China.
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Do not underestimate Jews. They are far more dangerous than Americans.

I firmly believe US despite its aggression, is not a permanent enemy or the primary enemy of China. US is queen piece, not king piece. Do not get checkmated just to remove enemy queen.
 

Biscuits

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Do not underestimate Jews. They are far more dangerous than Americans.

I firmly believe US despite its aggression, is not a permanent enemy or the primary enemy of China. US is queen piece, not king piece. Do not get checkmated just to remove enemy queen.
Jews are a vulnerability to America. They care more about Israel than US.

China doesn't fear Israel because there's nothing Israel can realistically do to cross swords on Chinese interests. They just stay around in their colony in the middle east and if they expand by just a little, the land is filled with restive semites of another brand that they'll spend their entire national budget just to fight. And Israel is located in a region where China has the last word in military escalation.

US taking away from itself to make Israel stronger simply only benefits China, since Beijing is anxious about US expansion in Asia and the Americas, which is China's own backyard. In contrast, Israel can grow to 3 times it's size and as long as they continue to facilitate China's interests, they're not a danger. And if they start to be rabidly anti China, its still easy for China to rope in one of the many Israel hating countries and turn them into a rump state.

This ain't chess and more like a real battle. There's no king or queen, just someone foolishly splitting their forces into two camps that don't feel loyalty for eachother, which will get both camps defeated in detail.

America, being the only camp powerful enough to threaten China, should be the camp that receives all resources. Not the Israel camp.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
China schedules these trips to Israel not just for Alibaba but various different business leaders and celebrities.

Remember near the start of the war that Chinese influencer guy who was touring an Israeli settlement when he broke mask and accused them of doing national socialism? Well, what was he doing on the Israeli equivalent of a Z celebrity Donbass tour anyways?

China is incredibly cunning geopolitically, we have to remember that China hasnt always led US in economic power, the no1 asset for China has always been their geopolitical cunning, not brute force economic strength.

China knows Israel sits on the biggest trove of intelligence and kompromat on US in the world, maybe as big as what Langley and Pentagon sits on. They also know that Israel has their own desires. Israel already used then dumped the USSR before.

When your enemy goes to your girlfriend's house and blatantly glazes her with some shit like:
You don’t have any diamonds here, but you have the biggest diamond exchange in the world. You don’t manufacture cars, but you have the best technology for car manufacturing. You don’t have oil, you don’t have water, you don’t have any resources – but you make yourself so strong.
That is not because he wants to reconcile with you! If so he'd have gone to your house (Washington) not Tel aviv.

I'm pretty sure Israel leaks intel like a sieve to China and is one of the reasons China always sees through what US is doing.

But you might ask "it's unethical to deal with one of the lowest morality countries in the world!" yeah China also keeps an invitation open to Japan to leave US whenever, and Japan is even more immoral. Plus China signs favorable deals with countries that have absolute dogshit domestic situations. Beijing doesn't care, Beijing practices China first to a religious level.
 
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