Chinese Economics Thread

[gelgoog]

India has like a fifth the electric generation of China. There is just no margin to run electric power consuming things like ACs.

 

[henrik]

India has like a fifth the electric generation of China. There is just no margin to run electric power consuming things like ACs.

So how does India generate the power for bitcoin mining and AI modelling?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

So how does India generate the power for bitcoin mining and AI modelling?

Bit coin and AI is for real humans. India has a self preceived population of 200M humans.

 

[Eventine]

Is this a joke? India has never been able to achieve the growth rates that China did during the demographic boom.

They have a myriad of problems that will stop them from growing anywhere close to China's power.

I don't think India is on course to become the manufacturing super power that China is.

But they have a larger presence in financial markets and software IT. As such, services as a % of Indian GDP is pretty much equivalent to China's despite India being a much less developed country.

The Indian stock market in particular is booming - their top companies index having nearly tripled since 2020 while China's crashed. That is one reason for their recent GDP performance.

 

[Arij Javaid]

I don't think India is on course to become the manufacturing super power that China is.

But they have a larger presence in financial markets and software IT. As such, services as a % of Indian GDP is pretty much equivalent to China's despite India being a much less developed country.

The Indian stock market in particular is booming - their top companies index having nearly tripled since 2020 while China's crashed. That is one reason for their recent GDP performance.

GDP PPP is a better metric than nominal GDP only when most of the stuff you are producing in your economy is high quality and that stuff is also being exported and used by other countries. Otherwise, nominal GDP is a better measure.

For example, in China's case, it produces most of the stuff it also consumes and china exports those stuff as well. And china has high tech, high quality production line which contributes to its overall GDP.

While in India, all the high quality goods and equipment are imported, which means its domestic economy is of extremely poor quality which is why using PPP is not an accurate measure. When most of the cars you drive are imported. It's imported using dollars. Thus nominal makes the most sense.

 

[LuzinskiJ]

Good point, spending on services has gone up while the price of a major item in Chinese consumption expenditure, pork, had gone down in the first half of the year.

Secondly, we shouldn't forget the bursting of the housing bubble. That was bound to impact spending. The only thing comparable would be the 2008 Sub-Prime Crisis in the US. American consumption declined 7% following that bubble burst. We are still seeing consumer growth in China which is actually a massively encouraging sign considering one of biggest downwinding of a property bubble in history.

I wonder if the Chinse consumers are spending proportionately more on services and travel because they are spending on items that don't suffer from deflationary and is, at the present, inflationary. While travel is up, is restaurant dining up as well?

 

[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1813004533641191934

my look at the import and export figures from China in June. Continued move up value chain

 

[Wrought]

An unusually bullish view from Western media regarding the ongoing economic transition.

China’s twin-track economy is generating doom-and-gloom headlines about domestic woes one moment and growing fears around the world about the dominance of its manufacturers the next. Those conflicting signals on

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showed ongoing strength in industrial production more than offset by tepid consumption as the property slump continues, leading to the slowest quarterly growth pace in five quarters. But through the fog a silver lining is becoming clear: Xi Jinping’s long quest for technology-driven “high-quality growth” is actually starting to pay off. While Japan and America both suffered deep economic setbacks when their housing markets hit the skids, China’s tech advances and resulting export boom have helped to keep

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within reach of its targeted pace of around 5%.


If Beijing can keep batting away US-led containment efforts,

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from Bloomberg Economics forecasts the hi-tech sector will account for 19% of gross domestic product by 2026, up from 11% in 2018. Combining what Beijing has dubbed the “new three” — EVs, batteries and solar panels — the proportion of GDP swells to 23% of GDP by 2026, more than enough to fill the void from the ailing real estate sector, which is set to shrink from 24% to 16%.

“Pessimism on China’s prospects is understandable but also overdone,” say Chang Shu and Eric Zhu, economists with Bloomberg Economics. “The government might just be about to pull off a great rebalancing.”

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[GiantPanda]

An unusually bullish view from Western media regarding the ongoing economic transition.

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All you need to know is this:

While Japan and America both suffered deep economic setbacks when their housing markets hit the skids, China’s tech advances and resulting export boom have helped to keep

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within reach of its targeted pace of around 5%.

This has got to be one of the greatest soft landings from an epoch-defining RE bubble burst.

 

[tygyg1111]

The exorbitant costs are a function of a cultural problem, not a necessity. Chinese people believe that you need to provide a child with the most expensive of everything or you've not done your job being a good parent. This is at a toxic level where heavy diminishing returns mean that they pay several times more to get little if any benefit at all.

My middle class cousin in China has 1 kid, will not have another. She feeds this kid the most expensive things she can find in the market. The baby eats a grain porridge with a brand name called, "Best in the World." It's like 5x more expensive than a regular one and I don't see how it's better. Every organic food is measured to the gram and documented in a notebook before feeding. That baby wore the most expensive clothes made out of the hypoallogenic skin-soothing cloth and she doesn't even have any skin issues or allergies! A professional nanny charging more than the entire salary of either my cousin or her husband was hired for the first year of this child's life in order to ensure that she got taken care of to the highest standards... all this while the grandmother sat and watched and didn't do anything because she wasn't "professionally trained." When this kid goes to school, her parents will send expensive fruit baskets and gifts to the teachers for tutoring sessions and to curry favor. She will be sent to extracurricular piano, violin, swimming, chess, painting, taekwondo, etc... classes draining the parents' savings until they have to tap the grandparents' money to afford it. And in the end, they will produce a mediocre and exhausted child. Oh! And my cousin spent 100,000RMB at a recovery facility for 1 month after giving birth... she had no abnormal events or necessity for this.

I, on the other hand, will have 4 kids; 2 currently with 1 on the way. They will be fed as much as they want to eat when they cry for it and it will be cost-efficient but not cut-rate formula/food purchased in bulk when on sale, just like their diapers. My eldest is almost a year old and shoves handfuls of fruits, fish, shrimp, meat into her mouth and my cousin asks how I got my baby to grow so much faster than hers with a "professionally calculated" and regulated nutritional intake. Almost all of their clothes were free, as there are often enormous boxes of children's clothes given away by people whose kids had outgrown them. Same thing with the toys, and equipment; people give these away or sell them for 10% the MSRP all the time when their kids grow up. The grandparents take care of the kids when my wife and I are at work; they're not professionals but needing a professional to do shit that cavemen knew how to do was a stupid notion from the start. When they cry, I check that the diaper is dry and they've been fed on time; both conditions met, I give them a pat on the head and let them cry themselves to sleep instead of hollowing myself out trying 20 different things and losing an hour's productivity trying to stop a very natural phenomenon. When they are old enough, I will teach them to swim, to sing, to draw, to play chess (I'm no expert but I know the rules), with martial arts and strength training for the boys and my wife will teach piano and body sculpting for the girl(s). If they have extraordinary talent or desire to learn something we don't know, we can send them to those classes to get them started until they've learned enough to coach themselves. People keep telling me that having kids is super expensive... I just don't feel it. Everything so far has been either free or a negligible expense.

When people have a culture like hers, they have 1 or no kids. When people have a culture like me, they have many.

What is the definition of a major economy? Just because India's a top 10 economy by size doesn't mean they all get lumped together and become comparable to each other. China exited India's current phase of fast and dirty where we were pulling like 13-14% a year. You're comparing high tech growth against low quality low tech and highly questionable growth.

Another element that I will definitely not pass onto my kids is the 'youngest must be coddled' mentality. Kids should learn to battle it out with their older siblings, thus learning and gaining experience with the basic truths of the world at a young age.