broadsword
Brigadier
If you mean physical, then don't.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
If you mean physical, then don't.
And what happened the last time the Chinese government handed out a huge stimulus? It contributed greatly to the huge real estate bubble whose unwinding is the core cause of the slow down right now. What you're suggesting is akin to saying that the best treatment for drug withdrawal is just taking drugs. I mean, sure, it'll definitely work, but then you're back to square one.
IMO the overall goal of increasing money supply is simply to keep up with productivity increases, and it should be timed for points of maximal efficacy. With ~5% growth in a world-wide economic downturn this would not be the ideal time. I think there's a solid chance that we're heading for a pretty big recession, as many countries are already in it or teetering on the edge. If it happens, that would probably be the ideal timing. It would also IMO be the ideal timing to really push for the digital yuan.
Remember many argued for months of the virtues of long covid lockdowns.
Total spending is barely up but per capita spending is down vs 2019. Translated into reality: people are taking more weekend trips to local attractions and less longer trips further away. Another indicator of consumption downgrade.
That is an interesting and informative graph there, where did you get it?
Perfect explanation of why China is not printing money and pumping up another bubble. They are dealing with the results of a previous decision to flood the economy with cash.
One thing that confuses me about this graph is how is the "% of 2019's" level calculated? Is it done on a per holiday basis? It wouldn't make sense to compare the spending on 2019 Labour Day with 2023's Dragon boat festival for example.
If it's done on a per holiday basis, it would be more insightful to create a series of graphs, where each graph is used to specifically compare one holiday over the last 4 years vs the 2019 level, instead of crowding all the holidays into a single graph.
If you do that, you can see that spending has basically recovered or improved if you only compare the holidays that have already happened in 2024 to the same holidays we have data for in 2023 (2024 LNY per capita spending > 2023 LNY per capita spending) so we are seeing an overall trend of recovery. It doesn't seem too damning to me.
Robin Xing's team at Morgan Stanley. If you don't know who he is (he's the one circled in Red) - this is from a meeting in 2018 - this should give you a sense of where he sits in the 'credibility' stack.
