Chinese Economics Thread

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don't expect BRI loans to ever grow back to their heyday. It was a bad deal for China and a good deal for irresponsible debtor nations who often defaulted on their loans anyway and then cried they were victims.
Looking at your chart the BRI loans still beat buying US Treasury Bonds. Which would have been the alternative. BRI loans serve multiple purposes. They help China unload its dollars, which can be confiscated whenever the US wants to, provide jobs and work for Chinese companies working in these projects, and China can always make these countries pay them back in Yuan later. Thus further decreasing the influence of the dollar worldwide. At the same time China is growing these markets so they can be integrated with its own economy. Most projects the BRI funds are either in energy, or transportation. The transportation improvements can help China both get commodities from other countries more easily, and to sell its own manufactured goods more easily. Increasing energy output means those economies move up the scale and become higher end consumers themselves. Will you buy as many electrical appliances if you only have electricity during part of the day or none at all?
 
Last edited:

fishrubber99

New Member
Registered Member
I also want to point out that any narratives shaped by the latest NBS economic data need to be understood from the perspective of what certain figures are actually measuring. E.g. we cannot equate retail sales growth with overall consumption growth.

See a good post here discussing this:

i.e. Chinese consumers seem to be spending proportionately more on experiences and services (travel, catering, etc) than on retail. Overall consumer spending is just 2% below the pre-COVID trend line
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
Growing at 5% when the base economic size is $18 trillion is a better performance than growing at 7.8% at $4 trillion. If we just looked at percentages, Guyana would have the most successful economy of all time since they grew 38% last year.
He's looking at the GDP in PPP terms, in which India's economy is $14 trillion (compared to $35 trillion for China). Still a significant difference but it does illustrate India is likely to catch up, especially given its superior demographics.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
What I suggest - >
Cash for having children - 500 rmb per month for one child until the child finish 18 years old. Cash directly from central government cause local governments have debt and cash issues.
500 rmb per month is a joke. A child can easily cost 2000 rmb a month. Living in big cities may cost 5000 rmb a month for a child.
The exorbitant costs are a function of a cultural problem, not a necessity. Chinese people believe that you need to provide a child with the most expensive of everything or you've not done your job being a good parent. This is at a toxic level where heavy diminishing returns mean that they pay several times more to get little if any benefit at all.

My middle class cousin in China has 1 kid, will not have another. She feeds this kid the most expensive things she can find in the market. The baby eats a grain porridge with a brand name called, "Best in the World." It's like 5x more expensive than a regular one and I don't see how it's better. Every organic food is measured to the gram and documented in a notebook before feeding. That baby wore the most expensive clothes made out of the hypoallogenic skin-soothing cloth and she doesn't even have any skin issues or allergies! A professional nanny charging more than the entire salary of either my cousin or her husband was hired for the first year of this child's life in order to ensure that she got taken care of to the highest standards... all this while the grandmother sat and watched and didn't do anything because she wasn't "professionally trained." When this kid goes to school, her parents will send expensive fruit baskets and gifts to the teachers for tutoring sessions and to curry favor. She will be sent to extracurricular piano, violin, swimming, chess, painting, taekwondo, etc... classes draining the parents' savings until they have to tap the grandparents' money to afford it. And in the end, they will produce a mediocre and exhausted child. Oh! And my cousin spent 100,000RMB at a recovery facility for 1 month after giving birth... she had no abnormal events or necessity for this.

I, on the other hand, will have 4 kids; 2 currently with 1 on the way. They will be fed as much as they want to eat when they cry for it and it will be cost-efficient but not cut-rate formula/food purchased in bulk when on sale, just like their diapers. My eldest is almost a year old and shoves handfuls of fruits, fish, shrimp, meat into her mouth and my cousin asks how I got my baby to grow so much faster than hers with a "professionally calculated" and regulated nutritional intake. Almost all of their clothes were free, as there are often enormous boxes of children's clothes given away by people whose kids had outgrown them. Same thing with the toys, and equipment; people give these away or sell them for 10% the MSRP all the time when their kids grow up. The grandparents take care of the kids when my wife and I are at work; they're not professionals but needing a professional to do shit that cavemen knew how to do was a stupid notion from the start. When they cry, I check that the diaper is dry and they've been fed on time; both conditions met, I give them a pat on the head and let them cry themselves to sleep instead of hollowing myself out trying 20 different things and losing an hour's productivity trying to stop a very natural phenomenon. When they are old enough, I will teach them to swim, to sing, to draw, to play chess (I'm no expert but I know the rules), with martial arts and strength training for the boys and my wife will teach piano and body sculpting for the girl(s). If they have extraordinary talent or desire to learn something we don't know, we can send them to those classes to get them started until they've learned enough to coach themselves. People keep telling me that having kids is super expensive... I just don't feel it. Everything so far has been either free or a negligible expense.

When people have a culture like hers, they have 1 or no kids. When people have a culture like me, they have many.
I'm sorry, but this simply isn't true anymore. India is the world's third largest economy by GDP (PPP) and it is growing at a 7.8% annual rate.
What is the definition of a major economy? Just because India's a top 10 economy by size doesn't mean they all get lumped together and become comparable to each other. China exited India's current phase of fast and dirty where we were pulling like 13-14% a year. You're comparing high tech growth against low quality low tech and highly questionable growth.
 
Last edited:

sndef888

Captain
Registered Member
He's looking at the GDP in PPP terms, in which India's economy is $14 trillion (compared to $35 trillion for China). Still a significant difference but it does illustrate India is likely to catch up, especially given its superior demographics.
Is this a joke? India has never been able to achieve the growth rates that China did during the demographic boom.

They have a myriad of problems that will stop them from growing anywhere close to China's power.
 

azn_cyniq

Junior Member
Registered Member
This shows the government should be printing way more money, for restoring the confidence of the consumers. But the big guy still has not been able to grasp this concept.
Perhaps the CPC was waiting for supply-side issues to be resolved before injecting a large amount of money into the economy. A stimulus package in 2022 would've caused unwanted inflation, but perhaps now is the right time for one.
 

GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
I also want to point out that any narratives shaped by the latest NBS economic data need to be understood from the perspective of what certain figures are actually measuring. E.g. we cannot equate retail sales growth with overall consumption growth.

See a good post here discussing this:

i.e. Chinese consumers seem to be spending proportionately more on experiences and services (travel, catering, etc) than on retail. Overall consumer spending is just 2% below the pre-COVID trend line

Good point, spending on services has gone up while the price of a major item in Chinese consumption expenditure, pork, had gone down in the first half of the year.

Secondly, we shouldn't forget the bursting of the housing bubble. That was bound to impact spending. The only thing comparable would be the 2008 Sub-Prime Crisis in the US. American consumption declined 7% following that bubble burst. We are still seeing consumer growth in China which is actually a massively encouraging sign considering one of biggest downwinding of a property bubble in history.
 

GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
Is this a joke? India has never been able to achieve the growth rates that China did during the demographic boom.

They have a myriad of problems that will stop them from growing anywhere close to China's power.

That is a joke if we are looking at production and, especially, consumption of goods.

In PPP, India has an economy that is supposedly 1/3 of China. But the consumption numbers in sales of say things like cars or other major household purchases are far lower. Cars in general, Chinese consumers buy 6 times more vehicles but up to 40-50 times more when we look at luxury brands like BMW, etc.

This disparity is extreme even in things like air conditioners which should be far more in demand from a tropical country like India than a temperate one like China.

Chinese bought 233M ac units to India's 8M.

IMG_3527.jpeg

IMG_3526.jpeg

PPP is usually a better measure for GDP than nominal -- China consumes multiples of what the US does no matter how nominal GDP tried to lie to us that the US economy is "bigger."

But in the case of India, its PPP GDP makes little sense. There is little chance that a PPP GDP 1/3 of that of China would buy 6 to 50 times less of practically every major household purchases.
 

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
I'm sorry, but this simply isn't true anymore. India is the world's third largest economy by GDP (PPP) and it is growing at a 7.8% annual rate.
Have your looked at got they calculate the GDP numbers? Devil's in the details.

They changed the way they calculate a few years back, immediately after the change, their growth numbers increased by around ~30%
 
Top