Chinese Economics Thread

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

What I suggest - >
Cash for having children - 500 rmb per month for one child until the child finish 18 years old. Cash directly from central government cause local governments have debt and cash issues.

 

[Quan8410]

What I suggest - >
Cash for having children - 500 rmb per month for one child until the child finish 18 years old. Cash directly from central government cause local governments have debt and cash issues.

500 rmb per month is a joke. A child can easily cost 2000 rmb a month. Living in big cities may cost 5000 rmb a month for a child.

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

500 rmb per month is a joke. A child can easily cost 2000 rmb a month. Living in big cities may cost 5000 rmb a month for a child.

500 RMB is 6000 RMB per year if there are already about or more than 250m young Chinese under 18 years that's 1,5 trillion yuan per year, that's already big chunk of central govement budget.

If the couple in smaller Chinese city have two children they will get 1000 rmb, a lot of people in smaller cities earn between 5000-8000 rmb, that's a big boost for spending. Not to mention the boost in income in rural areas.

I can tell you in Poland there was recently 500 zł per month and this year it was risen to 800 zł per month for Child. At the beginning in 2016 when they introduced the policy people will saying that there is no money for the program and that the debt will grow fast to gdp, I can tell you that consumption started growing pretty fast and debt to gdp stayed the same.

 

[Quan8410]

500 RMB is 6000 RMB per year if there are already about or more than 250m young Chinese under 18 years that's 1,5 trillion yuan per year, that's already big chunk of central govement budget.

If the couple in smaller Chinese city have two children they will get 1000 rmb, a lot of people in smaller cities earn between 5000-8000 rmb, that's a big boost for spending. Not to mention the boost in income in rural areas.

I can tell you in Poland there was recently 500 zł per month and this year it was risen to 800 zł per month for Child. At the beginning in 2016 when they introduced the policy people will saying that there is no money for the program and that the debt will grow fast to gdp, I can tell you that consumption started growing pretty fast and debt to gdp stayed the same.

But Poland massively failed its fundamental goals: birth rate. Poland population still decreased by 1 mil last year. If gov wants to stimulate spending, they will just need to provide some vouchers. If they want to increase or at least keep the birth rate from falling, they need more policies other than money.

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[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

I think birth rate is mostly cultural and lifestyle and we're getting free fall in births almost everywhere. There was some boost to births when introduced but mostly weak. Better question is what would be the births without the program? Probably even lower.

For me the program I suggest for China is mostly to boost consumption and the second reason also to help the parents and maybe boost a little birth rate. I think giving cash handouts for parents it's better than universal basic income.

 

[Overbom]

Cash directly from central government cause local governments have debt and cash issues.

Lots of rumours that tax reform is going to happen, a certain percentage of tax revenue going to central gov is going to be redirected to local govs. Long overdue

 

[mossen]

Remember Belt and Road? It has been been massively scaled down in recent years. Here's why:




This tells us two things:

(1) China's supposedly "predatory" debt was in reality very lenient for the debtor nations who took BRI loans.
(2) It follows that given real returns were low, it didn't make much sense for China to continue lend large amounts which didn't yield a high return. Geopolitics is not about charity, after all.

I don't expect BRI loans to ever grow back to their heyday. It was a bad deal for China and a good deal for irresponsible debtor nations who often defaulted on their loans anyway and then cried they were victims.

 

[Overbom]

Remember Belt and Road? It has been been massively scaled down in recent years. Here's why:


View attachment 132473

This tells us two things:

(1) China's supposedly "predatory" debt was in reality very lenient for the debtor nations who took BRI loans.
(2) It follows that given real returns were low, it didn't make much sense for China to continue lend large amounts which didn't yield a high return. Geopolitics is not about charity, after all.

I don't expect BRI loans to ever grow back to their heyday. It was a bad deal for China and a good deal for irresponsible debtor nations who often defaulted on their loans anyway and then cried they were victims.

Real return was never the real goal of BRI. It's right on the name, Belt and Road Initiative. It's to enchance connectivity and thus increase trade between these countries and China.

Does the real return figure account for this?

 

[mossen]

Poland population still decreased by 1 mil last year

Do you even read the articles you post? It literally said over the last decade.

I think birth rate is mostly cultural and lifestyle and we're getting free fall in births almost everywhere

It's about religion. The only rich country with a high birth rate is Israel which is a very religious country. However the price paid for a highly religious country also means social illiberalism and intolerance. How many Westerners would want to live in a country like that? Israelis often claim that they are the most liberal country in MENA, but that's only really true in Tel-Aviv. Women and religious minorities get spat upon in cities like Jerusalem.

Despite the propaganda about Poland being supposedly "conservative", religion in Eastern Europe is mostly about cultural markers rather than genuine piety. And it's possible to be homophobic and still have very low birth rates (e.g. South Korea).

Anyway, so much of the literature on child births is taking an excessively materialistic approach. It's really all about religiosity. The only exceptions are very poor countries where having children is about having social insurance. China is not going to become a religious country and neither is the West. Nor are either of them going to become sub-Saharan poor. So the only solution is automation.

 

[henrik]

I also think it's about Covid. Don't forget that China didn't provide free cash to the people like the US. So that meant that people had to dig through savings and such

So now they are worried that something like that could happen again and they are over-saving lol

This shows the government should be printing way more money, for restoring the confidence of the consumers. But the big guy still has not been able to grasp this concept.