Chinese Economics Thread

[coolgod]

Robin Xing's team at Morgan Stanley. If you don't know who he is (he's the one circled in Red) - this is from a meeting in 2018 - this should give you a sense of where he sits in the 'credibility' stack.

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What's your point?





By your logic Jack Ma is credible too.

 

[abenomics12345]

One thing that confuses me about this graph is how is the "% of 2019's" level calculated? Is it done on a per holiday basis? It wouldn't make sense to compare the spending on 2019 Labour Day with 2023's Dragon boat festival for example.

If it's done on a per holiday basis, it would be more insightful to create a series of graphs, where each graph is used to specifically compare one holiday over the last 4 years vs the 2019 level, instead of crowding all the holidays into a single graph.

If you do that, you can see that spending has basically recovered or improved if you only compare the holidays that have already happened in 2024 to the same holidays we have data for in 2023 (2024 LNY per capita spending > 2023 LNY per capita spending) so we are seeing an overall trend of recovery. It doesn't seem too damning to me.

Nowhere in the chart argues that "things are going negative" - the entire premise of the discussion is that "recovery rate is slowing down" - which is sufficient worry given this is supposed to be one of the 'faster growing' consumption baskets.

If you don't like the way data is presented, you are more than welcome to collect the data and use Excel yourself.

 

[abenomics12345]

By your logic Jack Ma is credible too.

Has Jack Ma been accused of any crimes? Or has he been banned from China? Or is he in anyway been labeled as a noncredible source?

My logic is based on the fact that I've been correct about my expectations of how the economy works. If you'd like to make bets and lose money to me, be my guest.

What's your point?

My point is he is more credible than a shitposting avatar like you.

 

[coolgod]

Has Jack Ma been accused of any crimes? Or has he been banned from China? Or is he in anyway been labeled as a noncredible source?

My logic is based on the fact that I've been correct about my expectations of how the economy works. If you'd like to make bets and lose money to me, be my guest.



My point is he is more credible than a shitposting avatar like you.

Resorting to ad hominems attacks when can't properly justify points. Points to irrelevant people who were once in a photo-op with a previous CPC politician to justify how "correct" they are.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

And what happened the last time the Chinese government handed out a huge stimulus? It contributed greatly to the huge real estate bubble whose unwinding is the core cause of the slow down right now. What you're suggesting is akin to saying that the best treatment for drug withdrawal is just taking drugs. I mean, sure, it'll definitely work, but then you're back to square one.

IMO the overall goal of increasing money supply is simply to keep up with productivity increases, and it should be timed for points of maximal efficacy. With ~5% growth in a world-wide economic downturn this would not be the ideal time. I think there's a solid chance that we're heading for a pretty big recession, as many countries are already in it or teetering on the edge. If it happens, that would probably be the ideal timing. It would also IMO be the ideal timing to really push for the digital yuan.

True

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Trillions in Hidden Debt Drove China’s Growth. Now It Threatens Its Future.​

Local governments racked up as much as $11 trillion in off-the-books debt to build industrial districts, resorts, transit systems and housing projects, including many that failed​

 

[abenomics12345]

What a useless gloating article by that libtard. Literally just tells us reform is coming and nothing else. No shit, Sherlock. Anyone who has read the CPC readouts knows that.

Resorting to ad hominems attacks when can't properly justify points. Points to irrelevant people who were once in a photo-op with a previous CPC politician to justify how "correct" they are.

You've called Zichen a "libtard" - if that wasn't shitposting I don't know what was.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1812801842931184064

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China's GDP expands 5 pct in H1​

China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5 percent year on year in the first half of 2024, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday.

China's GDP reached around 61.68 trillion yuan (about 8.65 trillion U.S. dollars) in the first half, NBS data showed.

In the second quarter, the country's GDP expanded 4.7 percent year on year, according to the NBS.

"Overall, the national economy has continued to improve in the first half in a stable manner," the NBS said in a statement commenting on the economic performance, citing support from policy incentives, rebound in external demand and development of new quality productive forces.

The second industry expanded 5.8 percent year on year in the first half, outpacing a 3.5-percent increase in primary industry and 4.6 percent in the service sector, according to the NBS.

On a quarterly basis, China's economy expanded 0.7 percent in the second quarter.

Consumption continued to play a major role in driving growth, with final consumption contributing to 60.5 percent of the economic expansion in the first half, contributing 3 percentage points to the GDP growth.

The country's surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 5.1 percent in the first half of 2024, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year.

The bureau said the growth was "hard-won" as the world's second-largest economy had faced a more uncertain, complex and severe external environment as well as new challenges from deepening structural adjustment domestically.

The NBS attributed the weaker second-quarter growth to short-term factors such as extreme weather and floods, but said it also reflected rising challenges, especially from insufficient effective demand and unsmooth economic flow at home.

"But from both a fundamental and a medium to long-term perspective, the economic fundamentals that will sustain long-term growth remain unchanged, and the trend toward high-quality development has not changed," the NBS said, noting that the Chinese economy is still a key engine for global growth.

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China's economy keeps steady recovery, to gain steam from new reforms​

China's economy grew by 5 percent in the first half of this year, signaling a steady recovery despite challenges at home and abroad, and reaffirming its role as a vital engine for global economic growth.

Bright spots are noticeable. The country reported a record high of H1 trade value in goods with a growth rate of 6.1 percent, and secured another bumper harvest of summer grains. The output of smart and green products such as integrated circuits, service robots, new energy vehicles and solar panels grew at a double-digit rate, cementing their role as new growth drivers.

Domestic demand continued to recover and external demand improved. In the first half of this year, final consumption expenditure contributed 60.5 percent to economic growth, driving GDP growth by 3.0 percentage points. Gross capital formation, a measure for investment, contributed to 25.6 percent of economic growth, driving GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points. Net exports of goods and services contributed 13.9 percent to economic growth.

In terms of policy support, the effects of large-scale equipment upgrades and policies encouraging the replacement of old consumer goods continued to manifest. Previously issued special-purpose bonds and ultra-long special treasury bonds, policy coordination and comprehensive measures provided favorable conditions for stable economic operation.

The growth rate is not easy to achieve given increased uncertainty and complexity in the external environment featuring geopolitical conflicts and international trade frictions.

The Chinese economy is still in a critical period of recovery as well as transformation and upgrading, growing in a wave-like fashion amid twists and turns. The H1 performance illustrated this. The second quarter saw a 4.7 percent GDP growth year on year, down from the 5.3 percent in the first quarter.

Extreme weather and floods contributed to the second quarter decline, which also reflected increasing difficulties and challenges in current economic operations, such as insufficient domestic effective demand.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, the trends of China's stable economic operation and sustainable improvement remain unchanged. The transformation toward high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing is progressing solidly, nurturing new industries and new growth drivers.

There has been improvement in energy security support capabilities and industrial and supply chain resilience. New technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence have created new consumption scenarios. Self-reliance in science and technology has continued to improve, injecting new momentum into the development of new quality productive forces.

Meanwhile, reforms are key to the high-quality growth of China's economy. The third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, which started on Monday, will primarily examine issues related to further comprehensively deepening reform and advancing Chinese modernization.

Innovative and pace-setting reforms are projected to further consolidate consensus, emancipate and develop the productive forces, and enhance social dynamics. Efforts to deepen reform further across the board will continuously provide strong impetus and institutional guarantees for Chinese modernization.

 

[SanWenYu]

Total spending is barely up but per capita spending is down vs 2019. Translated into reality: people are taking more weekend trips to local attractions and less longer trips further away. Another indicator of consumption downgrade.

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Your translation might not be correct. The low per capita spending could be the result of lower prices overall in the hospitality sectors that are in fierce competition for business.

The reality is that China railways have moved more passengers than ever in the first half of 2024. According to the released data, not only Chinese are taking more trips by trains, their trip distances are also increasing pretty much at same pace. Wait for the air traffic data to draw the final conclusion.

Chinese Economics Thread

https://asiatimes.com/2024/07/chinas-subsidies-create-not-destroy-value/ To celebrate Tesla’s US$788 billion market cap in comparison to BYD’s $93 billion is to confuse incentives with outcomes. Both companies receive generous tax breaks and other government goodies. That Tesla is far more...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

 

[Blitzo]

You've called Zichen a "libtard" - if that wasn't shitposting I don't know what was.

I mean, he's not wrong.

In relation to key markers such as attitudes to CPC, valuation of key goals for the nation and society in future, perception of the west and china, Zichen could very much be described as the Chinese equivalent of a "libtard".

 

[abenomics12345]

The low per capita spending could be the result of lower prices overall in the hospitality sectors that are in fierce competition for business.

The reality is that China railways have moved more passengers than ever in the first half of 2024. According to the released data, not only Chinese are taking more trips by trains, their trip distances are also increasing pretty much at same pace. Wait for the air traffic data to draw the final conclusion.

RevPar for hotels are up across the country - on average room rates are 110-120% of 2019 levels so that would be inconsistent "prices being lower" in hospitality.

People are taking more trips, but just trips with smaller tickets. You see this in the data of performance of some of the things that became more popular (Zibo BBQ/Harbin) which are lower ASP than say a shopping trip elsewhere.

But even if you were correct that there is substantial deflation in all travel/hospitality related pricing, this goes back to my original point that 'dEfLaTiOn iS gOoD' is an atrociously bad argument.