Chinese Economics Thread

[Enestori]

Total spending is barely up but per capita spending is down vs 2019. Translated into reality: people are taking more weekend trips to local attractions and less longer trips further away. Another indicator of consumption downgrade.

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I think that you've been more right than many on this forum - including me - with respect to Chinese consumption, especially in 2023.

However, as the number of tourists increase, the median Chinese tourist starts including more and more lower-income people. Per capita consumption could be falling as the tourist demographic becomes more working-class.

Let's say some factory workers are attaining the income to go on a vacation and do tourism (having been too poor in the past). A factory worker visiting the Great Wall will spend less per capita than an engineer.

I view Chinese "libtards" as individuals characterized by:
-skepticism of the CPC both as the ruling government and a system of government in China
-lack of recognition of geopolitical and strategic realities in context of contemporary Chinese priorities
-overvaluing of short term sociocultural events that can be understood as "progressive" from a western lens
-adherence to predominantly popular western sociocultural or economic lenses in viewing China as a whole
-lack of general long term planning awareness in relation to national goals

Now, there's nothing wrong with being a "Chinese libtard" it basically just means they are a bit strategically vacuous and geopolitically asleep, while championing socially progressive causes and western socioeconomic theories in a manner that seems disproportionate with the current major challenges which China actually faces.

That said I also do agree that coolgod of course shitposts not infrequently.
But he isn't wrong to call Zichen a Chinese libtard.

I sometimes follow Zichen's Twitter, and I've seen posts in which he supports Huawei and acknowledges the Five Eyes as extremely hostile. Which goes to show that even liberal Chinese generally support China when it comes to important disputes.

I think Zichen is useful in exposing Western lies that misquote the party or Xi. As a liberal intellectual, Zichen has the unique skill of making hawkish think-tankers look like fools by exposing their factual errors (which Western think tankers always make). He has a talent of systemically finding government/party/corporate documents, quotes, and context that prove them wrong.

He's done this several times to rebut the "Taiwan invasion" propaganda,

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. He's also

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.

 

[Blitzo]

I sometimes follow Zichen's Twitter, and I've seen posts in which he supports Huawei and acknowledges the Five Eyes as extremely hostile. Which goes to show that even liberal Chinese generally support China when it comes to important disputes.

I think Zichen is useful in exposing Western lies that misquote the party or Xi. As a liberal intellectual, Zichen has the unique skill of making hawkish think-tankers look like fools by exposing their factual errors (which Western think tankers always make). He has a talent of systemically finding government/party/corporate documents, quotes, and context that prove them wrong.

He's done this several times to rebut the "Taiwan invasion" propaganda,

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. He's also

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.

Yeah, I personally don't have any hostility towards him.
I think there is a degree of naivety, and his willingness to engage and criticize foreign reporting when there are mistranslations is respectable.

However, basing from his writings on twitter and his blog, he seems to prioritize certain matters sociocultural matters disproportionately more than other matters that are more consequential to geostrategic competition/vulnerabilities, which I feel is a major blind spot that is difficult to reconcile for... well anyone in 2024.

 

[abenomics12345]

those prior aforementioned topics as grievances (implying they are not moderate, rational or a reasonable default position to hold) is example of that.

Which ones?

Lower per capita travel spending with higher number of travelers can happen without consumption downgrade if the increase in number of trips is due mostly to cheaper trips. E.g., say there used to be 100 people traveling and spending 10K each. Now, there are still the same 100 travelers spending 10K each and there are also 20 new travelers spending 1K each, which would result in a 20% increase in number of travelers and 15% decrease in per traveler spending.

This certainly is possible but total spending is only up to 103% of 2019 levels, meaning that instead of the 100 spending 10k - it is more like 80 or 75 spending the 10k. Consumption downgrade is certainly happening. Correcting myself here: RevPar for hotels in high end (5 star) has not yet recovered to 2019 levels whereas RevPar in mid/mid-high end are 110-115% of 2019 levels.

1. The data in the chart is only for holiday periods. The major expensive tourist destinations in China are pretty much all capacity limited during normal (non-COVID) peak holiday periods and the number of such trips during peak holiday periods cannot increase any further, e.g. Jiuzhaigou, the Forbidden palace, etc. all have strict limits on number of allowed visitors per day. This means increases in travel during peak holiday periods will have to come from cheaper trips to minor attractions.
2. The chart does not tell us anything about travel during non-holiday periods. Are Chinese people shifting more travel to non-holiday periods? That would not be surprising as holiday travel experience in China is borderline nightmarish.

Certainly possible, but given the increasingly 卷 work culture, it is increasingly difficult to take time off - especially among the higher income crowd (faced with higher risk of job losses). Factory workers have always worked 6-7 day weeks so they generally do not travel leisurely during work weeks. Before anyone accuses me of 'anecdotal data', the NBS reports weekly hours worked - and average workers are working the most they've worked in 20 years:

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As such it is very reasonable to assume people increasingly travels during holidays - when they have more time off.

Again back to my original point, imagine working the hardest you've ever worked, but receiving the smallest raise you've ever experienced in your career. Makes for a sour mood.

1. Comparison of specific holidays in different years can be misleading as timing and duration of holiday periods vary from year to year. E.g., when Qingming falls on a Wednesday, most people just get that one day off, but when it falls on a Thursday, many people get Thursday and Friday off for a 4-day weekend. Lunar calendar holidays present additional issues. E.g., Dragon Boat Festival can happen any time from late May to late June. This year, Dragon Boat Festival was on June 10th, while national college exams took place on June 7th and 8th. Was the jump in number of trips and drop in per traveler spending for the Dragon Boat Festival due to high school seniors taking short last minute trips to celebrate the end of the exams?

Point taken, but this smooths out over time so directionally this is consistent - it is also corroborated by the bottoms up data I see from hotels/OTAs.

However, as the number of tourists increase, the median Chinese tourist starts including more and more lower-income people. Per capita consumption could be falling as the tourist demographic becomes more working-class.

Let's say some factory workers are attaining the income to go on a vacation and do tourism (having been too poor in the past). A factory worker visiting the Great Wall will spend less per capita than an engineer.

Possible, but see my earlier point re: total spend only being ~103% of 2019 levels.

I think there is a degree of naivety, and his willingness to engage and criticize foreign reporting when there are mistranslations is respectable.

However, basing from his writings on twitter and his blog, he seems to prioritize certain matters sociocultural matters disproportionately more than other matters that are more consequential to geostrategic competition/vulnerabilities, which I feel is a major blind spot that is difficult to reconcile for... well anyone in 2024.

That is my precise point re: Zichen - his audience is those in the 'influence-able' camp - not the hardened neohawks.

For all you know his Twitter persona may simply be a function of his mission by the United Front / MSS. "Your job is to present a China that is a friendly panda".

Chen Weihua on the other hand could very well have the mission of presenting a 'geostrategically aware' Chinese media personality for those who buy into that camp.

What they say in public on Twitter is not predictive at all wrt their personal beliefs.

 

[Blitzo]

Which ones?

This post

Chinese Economics Thread

I mean, he's not wrong. In relation to key markers such as attitudes to CPC, valuation of key goals for the nation and society in future, perception of the west and china, Zichen could very much be described as the Chinese equivalent of a "library". A librarian =/= a 'libtard'...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

Specifically:
"I view Chinese "libtards" as individuals characterized by:
-skepticism of the CPC both as the ruling government and a system of government in China
-lack of recognition of geopolitical and strategic realities in context of contemporary Chinese priorities
-overvaluing of short term sociocultural events that can be understood as "progressive" from a western lens
-adherence to predominantly popular western sociocultural or economic lenses in viewing China as a whole
-lack of general long term planning awareness in relation to national goals"


I assume that's what you're referring to when you wrote:

"It would be presumptuous to believe that Zichen's public persona as it relates to his Twitter presence would be entirely aligned with what he does or does not believe with respect to your list of grievances."

 

[abenomics12345]

I assume that's what you're referring to when you wrote:

"It would be presumptuous to believe that Zichen's public persona as it relates to his Twitter presence would be entirely aligned with what he does or does not believe with respect to your list of grievances."

Oh I assumed that those were things that bothered you wrt Zichen's content and therefore asssumed they were grievances from you. If not so then there is nothing to be interpreted from my choice of word in that case. You can substitute 'grievances' with 'labels' from my perspective.

 

[Blitzo]

Oh I assumed that those were things that bothered you wrt Zichen's content and therefore asssumed they were grievances from you. If not so then there is nothing to be interpreted from my choice of word in that case. You can substitute 'grievances' with 'labels' from my perspective.

Well, I think Zichen's twitter posting and blog posting many some of those criteria and his public statements fulfill the criteria to be viewed as those of a "Chinese libtard".

However I don't hold it against him (or anyone else) for having those positions if they are his genuine beliefs.

 

[abenomics12345]

Separately, other economic issues that may lead to people here responding differently, but questions you should think deep/hard about when you push for certain things to happen:

1) We can all agree that robotaxi (or some form of self-driving technology) is consistent with 'technology improvement' and is demonstrative of China's technological prowess, and presumably should increase productivity. However, there are anywhere from 10-15 million Didi drivers who would be jobless if robotaxis are rolled out enmass quickly ("China speed") in China. Simply put, Didi drivers are not the high wage earning, or STEM grads from Harbin Institute of Technology.

On the other hand, the companies ('big bad capitalists‘) that benefit from this would be your Baidu and Didis of the world - US listed public companies with American/Global shareholders.

Question: Is it consistent with consistent with common prosperity to roll out robotaxi quickly?

2) We can also agree that drone improvement is also consistent with China's technological improvements, or robotic usage in factories. There are also millions of Meituan delivery drivers who also would be rendered jobless if drone food delivery is rolled out enmass in China. Similarly, Meituan delivery drivers are also not high wage earning nor STEM grads from Xidian University.

Question: Is it consistent with consistent with common prosperity to roll out drone delivery quickly?

Keep in mind, drones and Chinese cars are manufactured increasingly with robots - the Zeekr/Volvo factory can make a car every 60 seconds - and the entire factory only has 4000 people. (Xiaomi is a little slower at 70 seconds) - so the job loss/gain tradeoff is simply not easy to make - not to mention the skills mismatch in the short to medium term.

 

[zbb]

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Average per capita disposable income grew by 5.4% YoY (4.6% for urban residents, 6.8% for rural residents). Median disposable income grew by 5.9%, more than the average.

Average per capita consumption spending grew by 6.8% YoY (6.1% for urban residents, 7.6% for rural residents), more than the growth in disposable income. Is this what they call "lack of consumer confidence" and "weak consumption"?

 

[abenomics12345]

Average per capita consumption spending grew by 6.8% YoY (6.1% for urban residents, 7.6% for rural residents), more than the growth in disposable income. Is this what they call "lack of consumer confidence" and "weak consumption"?

Considering the hordes of people calling for my head when I said "8% in 2023 is probably the best you can do", and that 6.8% is lower than 8% - yes, this is weak.

Expectations were for 2023 to grow in the teens.

 

[Quan8410]

Douyin and weibo is filled with "lying flat", "no kids", "unemployment", etc. No wonder consumption rose so modestly.