Chinese Economics Thread

[supercat]

IMF raised the outlook of China's economic growth in 2024 to 5%.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1813440068251701676

 

[grulle]

Despite the tensions between China and the West, China remains an attractive investment destination for foreign companies. In 2024, China ranked 3rd in the world in the FDI Confidence Index.

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[henrik]

The government should be printing way more money by doing some QE, for restoring the confidence of the consumers. The stock markets will be pumped up, which will generate some wealth effect.

 

[Quan8410]

The government should be printing way more money by doing some QE, for restoring the confidence of the consumers. The stock markets will be pumped up, which will generate some wealth effect.

The more money you print, the more money will be bumped to real estate to escape inflation which is the thing that gov do not want. The thing is China lack so much investment alternative to real estate, gold, luxury goods, etc That's why the collapse of the real estate market made Chinese confidence low.

 

[sndef888]

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[email protected] 06/08 aaA:/

Interesting video in Chinese on the upcoming tax reforms

 

[henrik]

The more money you print, the more money will be bumped to real estate to escape inflation which is the thing that gov do not want. The thing is China lack so much investment alternative to real estate, gold, luxury goods, etc That's why the collapse of the real estate market made Chinese confidence low.

If the government does not want to the money to go to the real estate market, then they need to boost the stock market as an alternative investment, which will generate some wealth effect.

 

[mossen]

So I looked into the "Chinese consumer story" a bit more. Here's the chart all the way back to Jan 2023 (when Covid recovery began).



April 2023 had 18.4% sales growth and May 2023 had 12.5%.

So it is against these very high baselines that the numbers for spring 2024 are measured. I suspect calendar effects are partly to blame here.

The real test will be summer of 2024. The calendar effect should be pretty mild (notice the valley for 2023), so if sales growth are still weak then we can say it seems to be an issue.

 

[Iracundus]

If the government does not want to the money to go to the real estate market, then they need to boost the stock market as an alternative investment, which will generate some wealth effect.

They should promote investment in dividend stocks such as the big SOE's, rather than speculative stocks. That way some of the profits from the SOE's flow directly into wider society and the average individual. Maybe the flow of dividends in this fashion can help boost consumption which in turn can then help boost businesses, creating a virtuous cycle.

 

[Dolcevita]

This is huge if true.

Average Chinese national now eats more protein than an American: United Nations​

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[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

So I looked into the "Chinese consumer story" a bit more. Here's the chart all the way back to Jan 2023 (when Covid recovery began).

View attachment 132635

April 2023 had 18.4% sales growth and May 2023 had 12.5%.

So it is against these very high baselines that the numbers for spring 2024 are measured. I suspect calendar effects are partly to blame here.

The real test will be summer of 2024. The calendar effect should be pretty mild (notice the valley for 2023), so if sales growth are still weak then we can say it seems to be an issue.

There's no high base effect, 2022 the same months had negative growth of retail sales -11% and -6.7% cause of lockdown.