Chinese Economics Thread

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
It's a doomer headline.
Core inflation looks to be unchanged at 0.6% YoY so it's fuel and food prices returning back to normal.
Food prices might not (-4.2% I think it was, with pork being the main 'culprit', although looking at a longer perspective, it rose quite a lot in the last few years do to both culling because of disease, as well as rises in various inputs, such as oil prices, feed etc. but those inputs have been going down this year, so it's actually good that pork prices fall in response, rather than staying elevated, despite various input prices falling 'back down').

Not to mention, it's a positive thing for the average/everyday consumer/person in China.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Deflation deepening at -0.5% YoY. Analyst consensus was a milder -0.1% fall, so this is a negative surprise.

View attachment 122440

I think it is too early to say more needs to be done, but clearly if nothing much changes by spring next year, then the govt should start doing something to get the ball going. An entrenched deflation scenario is bad for the economy (just ask the Japanese).


More should be done only if this finding starts lowering GDP projections or actual GDP growth in the future (for now the goal is met).

For now, it literally means "people paying less for stuff", and that's about it.

Deflation is not like inflation when you have a negative effect (on the consumer) happening right away. This is a short-term positive.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Deflation in China currently is nearly completely caused by the slowdown in Western economies, which are in either recessions or stagflations. It didn't come naturally to China as it did to Japan.

Normally, Chinese producers overproduced as no one expected those catastrophic developments in the West so now they have to lower prices domestically to sell inventory.

Also, it's normal for the Chinese educated and smart population to feel less optimistic and cut down on spending as they see the direction in which the world economy (led by the Western collapse) is going.

But, no matter what the current ratio of economic and every other kind of slowdown will happen in the West, China will have it at least many times easier/better.

Also, deflation is just a symptom of the Japanese economy reaching its maximum developmental potential (which is the main cause of their current stagnation), it's not the root cause of it.

Japan brought its population to the top of the quality, and productivity pyramid, and then simply stopped having more net new people coming (natality/mortality), so that's why they stopped growing.

This is around 20-30 years away from the current China. It goes like this, GDP growth slows, it automatically lowers inflation, due to lower spending.

Plus, the age pyramid gets skewed at that time and older people are lesser spenders, due to the law of diminishing returns,

You can't expect the same population to spend forever without further increases in their standard of living thanks to reaching their individual peak potential productivity level).

Also, what's worth pointing out is that East Asians in general are very cautious by nature and are smartest in the world, so they don't spend dumbly like average populations in the West.

They are also culturally entirely differently raised about debt and other economic outlooks. So that's why they have baseline consumption levels lowered, on top of that add those other factors from above.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Also, it's way easier for China to solve its deflation if needed in the future and it doesn't go away on its own (or it gets statistically proven to cause harm to the economy unlike now), than it is for the US to decrease its high inflation situation for example.

To decrease inflation, the US has to raise interest rates (they can't cut government spending and money printing) to at least double those now, but they would be in recession at that time because they are in a stagflation now. That's why they are spinning the narrative on China.

(Don't look at their official numbers, due to accounting manipulations, the real inflation number is at least double that).

(Also when the pre-election deflationary pressure coming from releasing strategic oil reserves subsidizes, it will grow too).

But for China to solve its problems, it just needs to tap into its savings which are highest in the world, and start encouraging more spending without much side effects. That is a "sweet" kind of "problem" compared to the one the US is facing simultaneously.
 

ren0312

New Member
Registered Member
The situation in consumer spending is a reflection of the state of the property market. So needs demand side stimulus.
 

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
Personally China should keep its economy deflated and even more. There are two reactions coming from a deflated economy: the West cannot resist buying China products at such a low price. They threaten protectionism, sanction, and taxes but they still import it at the end of the day. and it will boost China's export trade volume even more.
 

dingyibvs

Junior Member
Deflation is a symptom, not a disease. Treatment, if necessary, should be directed at the disease, not at the symptom.

IMO, Japan's deflation is a result of their failure to keep up with any of the emerging tech from the late 90's onward, falling behind in cutting edge computing, software, smartphones, renewables, EVs, etc. They responded to this by holding onto the aging industries they're good at for dear life, resulting in a society that still relies on them (e.g. ICE vehicles, fax machines, etc.) and an industry that's very good at building them for cheaper and cheaper cost. Throwing cheap money has not worked because corporations realize these old tech have no future, and instead of investing the cheap money at home resulting in the virtuous cycle of rising wages -> rising prices -> rising profits -> rising wages they hoarded cash or invested them elsewhere.

In China, IMO deflation is the result of a shifting internal as well as global economic and trade structure. The property market, while a deck of cards, is something the average Joe could invest in and profit from. The booming renewables, EV, and semi market, while more substantial and enduring, is not yet something the average Joe feel confident in investing due to the volatility and immaturity of the Chinese equity market. This hurts consumer confidence. Then you have the falling commodity prices due to coming off of highs of the COVID era and the falling demand from the West from a combination of stagnating economy, trade barriers, and also coming off of COVID highs.

These are different diseases, and require different treatments. Artificially raising inflation by pumping money into the system will do nothing long term. For Japan, they need big structural changes to catch up to new and emerging tech. They've been talking about it for decades but nothing substantial has been done. For China, there needs to be a way to allow individuals to confidently invest in domestic corporations. Whether that's through reforms to the stock market or establishment of intermediary government-backed funds I don't know, but there needs to be a way to better mobilize Chinese citizens' capital. The commodity prices and foreign trade is cyclical and nothing needs to more needs to be done aside from what already is being done (e.g. rerouting trade, developing new markets, improving trade relations with Western powers with sticks and carrots, etc.)
 

supercat

Major
IMO, Japan's deflation is a result of their failure to keep up with any of the emerging tech from the late 90's onward
This reminds me that Japanese were the good folks who gave us the analog HDTV while digital HDTV was right around the corner.

China's auto sales, exports, and NEV sales will probably break records this year and next year. The previous record of domestic sales was 29 million in 2017. China probably reached peak ICE sales in that year. In comparison, the US had the largest auto market previously, and their record was 18 million or so in the 2010s. As for export, Japan was the the largest auto exporter formerly, and they exported less than 4 million each year.
 

Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member
There’s a growing movement on TikTok for the public to push the UN for move for UN Resolution 377a.
It’s basically the world doing an”Responsibility to Protect” crusade against Zionist Israel.
How ironic that the Anglo Zionist ruling class will be destroyed by the very same tool they used to destroy Gaddafi.
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