Chinese Economics Thread

Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Asdasdasd said:
What I'm saying is this: Western countries have experienced the problems that China has experienced in the past, but they have reached the status of a developed country without decreasing their population. In order to become a developed country, it's not about reducing the population, it's about giving importance to technology and spreading it to the base. China has the resources and productivity to do this with the current population as well.

As I understand it, you are arguing that the population will eventually fall into balance and should not be interfered with. What if it doesn't happen? Can you guarantee that? What if the one-child policy has upset the balance. What if this low trend of marriage and childbearing in society continues. With the low youth population rate that will occur in the future, it will be very difficult to keep even the balance, let alone increase the population. Therefore, the most logical way is for the government to try to increase marriage and birth rates as soon as possible.
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Okay, you and Manqiangrexue have both said your parts enough.

This is getting tiresome, knock it off. As you are the newer member on the forum and the instigator, I expect you to stop this nonsense.

Further posts will be deleted.
 
B

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
supercat said:
Here is the archived version of the article:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

From the article:

This is actually old news we already know, especially if you consider that the calculation of the US GDP includes so-called "imputations". In terms of annual electricity generation, it's 8839 TWh vs 4297 TWh, China is more than 2 times bigger. The claim that China "will never overtake the US on a nominal basis" is just coping.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1732104289504608564
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It's just not possible even assuming "slowed" Chinese growth for US to ever overtake the Chinese economy.

Not only does US itself also have as slow growth as China as its slowest, but they also exaggerate their gdp counting, so to catch up for real, they'd need even more gdp than what is the reported difference.

Fearing US overtaking economically in terms of size is imho complete paranoia. But just having largest economy does not necessarily make you the dominant overall power.
 
A

antiterror13

Brigadier
supercat said:
Here is the archived version of the article:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

From the article:

This is actually old news we already know, especially if you consider that the calculation of the US GDP includes so-called "imputations". In terms of annual electricity generation, it's 8839 TWh vs 4297 TWh, China is more than 2 times bigger. The claim that China "will never overtake the US on a nominal basis" is just coping.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1732104289504608564
Click to expand...

So what Chinese nominal GDP would be if China had followed used the US system (e.g. include "imputations"), I think easily 30-40% more
 
S

Stierlitz

Junior Member
Registered Member
Exports from China unexpectedly grew by 0.5% year-on-year to USD 291.93 billion in November 2023, after a 6.4% fall in the previous month and beating market forecasts of a 1.1% drop. It was the first increase in exports since April, amid signs of improvement in global trade flows. Among major trading partners, exports increased to the US (7.3%) and Taiwan (6.4%), while shrinking to Japan (-8.3%), South Korea (-3.6%), Australia (-9.1%), ASEAN (-7.1%), and the EU (-14.5%). Considering the first eleven months of the year, exports dropped 5.2% yoy to USD 3.08 trillion. source: General Administration of Customs

source: General Administration of Customs

Imports to China unexpectedly fell by 0.6% year-on-year to USD 223.54 billion in November 2023, missing market forecasts of a 3.3% rise and reversing from a 3.0% growth in the prior month. This was the 10th time of decline in purchases so far this year, underlining fragile domestic demand despite a wide-ranging plan from the government to restore consumption. Purchases decreased for crude oil (-9.18%), steel products (-18.67%), edible oil (-18.88%), rubber (-7.18%), and meat (-16.42%). Conversely, imports grew for refined products (34.19%), natural gas (6.1%), unwrought copper (1.98%), copper ore & concentrates (1.29%), coal (34.66%), iron ore (3.94%), and soybeans (7.76%). Imports contracted from Japan (-0.3%), South Korea (-2.3%), the US (-15.1%), and ASEAN countries (-6.4%); while expanding from Taiwan (5.8%), EU (1.6%), and Australia (8.6%). For the January to November period, imports shrank 6.0% from the same period of 2022.

source: General Administration of Customs
 
mossen

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Deflation deepening at -0.5% YoY. Analyst consensus was a milder -0.1% fall, so this is a negative surprise.

china-inflation-cpi@2x.png

I think it is too early to say more needs to be done, but clearly if nothing much changes by spring next year, then the govt should start doing something to get the ball going. An entrenched deflation scenario is bad for the economy (just ask the Japanese).
 
L

lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
mossen said:
Deflation deepening at -0.5% YoY. Analyst consensus was a milder -0.1% fall, so this is a negative surprise.

View attachment 122440

I think it is too early to say more needs to be done, but clearly if nothing much changes by spring next year, then the govt should start doing something to get the ball going. An entrenched deflation scenario is bad for the economy (just ask the Japanese).
Click to expand...

It's a doomer headline.
Core inflation looks to be unchanged at 0.6% YoY so it's fuel and food prices returning back to normal.
 
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