Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
come on man. firstly China has abundance of human capital. largest talent pool in the world.
how many people Foxconn or Apple can hire from China ? 100 or 200 or 500. literally zero impact. Chinese people currently working in Chennai plant are on Managerial positions and machine operators. all assembling process done by local people.
i just don't want to spoil the thread but Local government has an eye on this .. so don't worry. if anything serious happen they will take immediate action.
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What I'm saying is this: Western countries have experienced the problems that China has experienced in the past, but they have reached the status of a developed country without decreasing their population. In order to become a developed country, it's not about reducing the population, it's about giving importance to technology and spreading it to the base. China has the resources and productivity to do this with the current population as well.
As I understand it, you are arguing that the population will eventually fall into balance and should not be interfered with. What if it doesn't happen? Can you guarantee that? What if the one-child policy has upset the balance. What if this low trend of marriage and childbearing in society continues. With the low youth population rate that will occur in the future, it will be very difficult to keep even the balance, let alone increase the population. Therefore, the most logical way is for the government to try to increase marriage and birth rates as soon as possible.
Apple's own estimates are for max 25% of iPhones to be made in India by 2025, so it's not like they are making all the batteries in India in the future (just the phones made in India)
They are always also trying to sell more iPhones (especially in India itself where Android phones are way ahead), so this larger share doesn't represent an overall volume decrease in Chinese manufacturing. This is the part that always seems to be missed.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
So which Western country has experienced traffic so bad that you can only drive your car 3 days a week and you have to wait 6 years to buy one at all? Can you give an example? This here shows me that China is overcrowded. Western nations are currently experiencing an issue where young people cannot afford housing and this is causing a drop in birth rate but with much lower population density, the problem is just not as severe as in China.
It's also not about increasing population. It's about increasing education, increasing the educated elite in STEM, which takes high per capita resources. Total population will be sorted out by the mechanisms of the ecosystem you create.
Not necessarily that it cannot be interfered with but that adjustments have to be made by adjusting the ecosystem itself and that effect will rebalance the population to a higher or lower number. But the most critical point I am making is that maintenance or even near maintenance of the current population numbers is not crucial to China's success and population decline, up to a certain point, which we are well within, is natural in this case and can be more than outweighed by increases to the educated elite, allowing innovation to increase rather than decline with the general population.
Then we panic!! We tell Chinese people we'll all go extinct if we see a little bit of decline! We force women to have as many kids as possible!! LOLOL
Yes, I guarantee it. Every system will find a balance. I guarantee it and as a Chinese person, I bet my life and future on my guarantee.
Balances are upset and then reset all the time. If this low trend continues, then it is because the ecosystem is still calling for less. If you want more, then the ecosystem has to be changed and that will naturally cause birth to increase again. What does your what-if question ask? Continues to when, to a population that is what? Because it will continue for the time being and it will not be a problem but it cannot drag out for, say, a century, which will be a problem.
What is low? It's still basically the highest in the world. You saying that China's low population is in jeopardy sounds funny to every country other than India. What are these countries all going to do with less young people than China? All die out because they can't increase the population because they have fewer youths than China? There are currently many countries with much much fewer young people than China and they can increase the population. China can easily do it too, if the environment is right.
There are already policies for that but they don't amount to the panic you seem to have about China's future dependent on the population staying the same or nearly the same as now.
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I suspected this guy was a problem as soon as he made one of his first posts. I advised him to talk less and read more. That advice was clearly ignored. And now he starts a ton of arguments based purely on rhetoric. Little to no facts or analysis. He goes right where he belongs now, on the ignore list.
But at least surely it's not sleepy. He would have by now not been able to resist posting an elaborate calculation using percentage of percent unit increases in growth to somehow claim US has a bigger economy than China.
And the erori guy would have been unable to contain himself from saying the funny word lol
Sleepy is not a person. Sleepy is an archetype. In that sense, there are many Sleepys. One for every star in the sky.
supercat
Major
Here is the archived version of the article:
From the article:
This is actually old news we already know, especially if you consider that the calculation of the US GDP includes so-called "imputations". In terms of annual electricity generation, it's 8839 TWh vs 4297 TWh, China is more than 2 times bigger. The claim that China "will never overtake the US on a nominal basis" is just coping.
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