Chinese Economics Thread

tonyget

Senior Member
Registered Member
China's problem is lack of demand so money printing helps with that, whether that takes the form of rising wages or through increased welfare.

Except they are not doing this. They did print alot of money,however it has largely been circulating within banking system
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Good, a small and prolong decline of housing prices in Shenzhen and Shanghai should be enough to persuade speculators from inflating the housing prices to unsubstantial level.
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It took years of the government beating up the property sector, but people finally got the message. It's about time.
Yes, because of population structure, not absolute numbers. Young people not being able to find jobs does not magically go away if there's less young people - getting older does not make you more employable in and of itself.
I should have commented on this the first time around but I missed it. That's exactly what the data shows in China's case. Look at the Coming Collapse of China flavour of the month - the unemployment rate among 16-24 year-olds - and contrast it with the rate among 25-33 year-olds. I don't have the data but I'll bet the latter is much lower for a simple reason: the Western media isn't harping on it.

Based on that, the hypothesis that getting older in China makes you more employable is well-supported by the evidence. There are a lot of reasons for that to be the case - the older you are, the more experience you have (which makes you more valuable as an employee) and the likelier you are to have realistic expectations for your career.
Welfare is demand, but not the type that makes an economy competitive, since its purpose is to maintain a none productive sector of the economy.
Demand is demand. Elderly people spend money on the same things young people do: food, shelter, entertainment, etc. In fact, their demand for medical services stimulates the critical sectors of biotechnology and medical technology. This is especially important in China's case since these sectors are still small and trailing technologically.
It’s the same reason printing money & giving it to people to spend however they want causes inflation and doesn’t actually strengthen the economy - Biden learned that the hard way.
That's the American economy. Printing money in America causes inflation because there's no productivity to back the money printing, and America is busy decoupling itself from the productivity it was getting from China. There's no comparison between the Chinese and American economies.
Economic systems have a single purpose and that is to motivate high quality productivity from working age people.
Even if we keep the "from working age people" clause, define working age people. China's retirement age is at least a decade behind that of developed countries while its life expectancy is comparable (and in America's case, superior). I believe the coming 1-2 decades will see revolutionary advances in medicine - which I hope China leads - where life expectancy will increase dramatically. What's "working age" when the average life expectancy exceeds 100?
Robots unless completely autonomous (in which case they displace humans) still need to be operated and motivated by people. If all those people are old you’re not going to get much high quality productivity.
Robots are displacing humans all the time without being fully autonomous. If a company previously needed to hire 100 people for a given output now needs to hire only 20, those 80 people who would have otherwise been hired have been displaced. We could argue about other jobs in the economy being available to them, but that's another discussion.

As for their age, who is more productive - a 60 year-old sitting in an air-conditioned room operating mining equipment over a 5G connection, or a 20 year-old with a pickaxe? Let's make a fairer comparison, if the 60 year-old and 20 year-old were performing the same job, who would be more productive?
Same reason why 70 year olds don’t found world beating companies despite having more wealth & so in theory better economic position to become entrepreneurs.
20 year-olds don't either. The average age of successful entrepreneurs is 45:
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horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Another hit piece from HW before HR


for all the talk about Chinese industries defeating Japan & SK industries, the big fish is actually America. America's export is equivalent to Europe, japan & Korea added together.

About half of the $2 trillion in export are areas that China can probably compete with America including computer components, semiconductors, military equipments, construction equipment, auto products & aerospace.

The reality is that as China grows in competitiveness, while that may destroy certain Japanese & Korean industries, the biggest victim will actually be America

That is why the Trump tariffs, that the Biden has double down on, is a failure.

It is not about how China is doing, it is about how that helped America. Simply it did not, not enough. American de-industrialization may continue.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Trump's tariffs did not help reach the stated objectives i.e. bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US. Jobs are moving out of China to Vietnam and Mexico because of lower labor costs, but the trend was already there to begin with as cost of labor in China rose. Because of NAFTA it is way more likely the jobs will go to Mexico regardless of which tariffs they put in place.
 
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