This let me thinking, is China really having a " demographic disaster" as asserted by so many when China has so many young people not working?
Chinese Economics Thread
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What makes you say that there is not enough focus?
The semi tools sector is a good indication of this. The ZTE sanctions were 5 years ago. And Huawei got banned from using TSMC in 2020. So where are the Chinese semi tools and production line? Nowhere. Even 90nm production lines using dry lithography like the one by Nexchip still use imported tools. This is pathetic to be honest.
Still no operational dry lithography production lines, let alone immersion, or even less likely EUV. At this rate they won't deliver immersion lithography before leading edge fabs use second generation high-NA EUV.
Production of advanced materials like photoresist and mask material is still way below required for self-sufficiency, same is true for certain display panel materials. Only bright spot in materials is wafer production which seems to be ramping up quickly, but this is thanks to huge existent investments into solar panel materials sector.
Still no operational dry lithography production lines, let alone immersion, or even less likely EUV. At this rate they won't deliver immersion lithography before leading edge fabs use second generation high-NA EUV.
Production of advanced materials like photoresist and mask material is still way below required for self-sufficiency, same is true for certain display panel materials. Only bright spot in materials is wafer production which seems to be ramping up quickly, but this is thanks to huge existent investments into solar panel materials sector.
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Do you have up-to-date information about the state of the Chinese semiconductor industry? Chinese semiconductor companies have been operating under a shroud of secrecy for many years now. I find it hard to believe that there is a lack of funding or focus. We don't have a lot of information about SMEE's SSA880, but if it does exist, then they are definitely keeping it under the radar. Last year, we found out that SMIC is capable of producing 7 nm chips, but we still don't really know what the yields are and what tools they used to accomplish this.
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To me that's precisely one factor, although there are many. How can one argue that China needs more people when already providing jobs to 10 million college graduates a year is proving as gargantuam of a task as it is?
The whole demographic argument shifting from the world is overpopulated to the world needs more people only really began in this century from my observation and to me in the long run, the ones who argued the world is overpopulated and needs less people just win out of pure common sense and observation for the reality of how many countries function.
If they had a sanctions-proof 28 nm production line, they would probably want to keep it out of the spotlight for as long as possible to buy time for the EUV project. Perhaps the EUV project requires foreign components. America is an enemy of China, so keeping anything secret from America benefits China. Hiding the existence of a sanctions-proof 28 nm production line may distort the Americans' assessments of Chinese military strength, for instance.
At this point it's clear that neither of us are insiders, so this discussion is useless.
US added sanctions ever since it was known SMIC can secretly produce 7nm chips. So the more progress China makes, the more sanctions US adds. Even if China has a 28nm sanction proof line, it takes time to scale up production, and the vulnerabilities won't fully disappear unless it gets robust production rate across the entire supply chain. For example, photoresist so US can't force Japan to sanction it.
Yes, because of population structure, not absolute numbers. Young people not being able to find jobs does not magically go away if there's less young people - getting older does not make you more employable in and of itself. On the other hand, an aging population putting more burden on state resources - since old people can't work - is just a mathematical inevitability.
The problem isn't that there can't be enough jobs for everyone. It's that the service sector was destroyed by the lock downs and has yet to recover. Young people aren't just a source of labor, they are also a source of demand. In fact, over the course of their lives, young people today will consume far more than the older generations on a per capita basis. Lose that demand and you lose an equal amount of theoretical jobs with it.