Chinese Economics Thread

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Until USD dominance away, the 'problems' of the US economy is feature, not bug. Put another way, until PBoC can print China's problems away (which it cannot), China cannot do what the US does and 'be fine'.

Yeah, how about any of those other nations I mentioned? They all grew out of it fine didn't they? Though I wouldn't consider inflation and erosion of the majority of the population's buying power and wealth a feature.

The GDP in 1990 was 361 billion USD. There were *a lot* of low hanging fruits to grow - so whatever problems there were, you can grow out of it. If you read Isabella Weber's book "How China Escaped Shock Therapy" which goes through the history of how planned economy was ported over to market economy - the dual-track price mechanism was solved not via anything special, the market economy simply grew to multiples of the planned economy.

That option does not exist today given the size of the Chinese economy, standing at 18trln USD, with significantly more debt in the system.

Yes, I mentioned the lack of low hanging fruit makes growth today much more challenging, job creation for the displaced workers are not going to happen overnight. Yes its painful, and yes it will persist for some time. But its unavoidable - its a situation that no nation managed to sidestep during their development phase. It happened in the 80s and 90s as China transitioned from low income to middle income. And its happening again as China transitions from middle income to high income.

If you go through my responses in this thread in early 2023 - I was getting flak for saying that the RE controls were painful but necessary - so uh - you're preaching to the converted. I am simply pointing out the pressures for the Chinese economy has actually deteriorated since early 2023.

And I was advocating for cooling down the real estate market since before COVID. You should be expecting that growth in short to medium term is going to be impacted. 4-5% real GDP growth YOY is still very respectable for a higher income country. Growth even in the long term is never going to go back to the rates seen in the past three decades, but the current pains the country is experiencing now will ease in the long term. I am still very optimistic about China's long term growth curve. Better some pain now is much better than more severe pain down the road. I think where we differ in view is how long we expect the pain to last, and which issues we classify as problems that need to be tackled and what issues are just going to be persistent, "features," of a higher income economy.

 

[Petrolicious88]

on Chinese internet, you will find more negative information than positive news. White people will never understand the Chinese mindset.

Plenty of white people speak fluent Chinese, studied and grew up in China. They understand the Chinese mindset just fine. Leave race out of it.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Plenty of white people speak fluent Chinese, studied and grew up in China. They understand the Chinese mindset just fine. Leave race out of it.

LOL That's like saying anybody who grew up in the US and speaks fluent English understands the African American experience.

Reminds me of the South Park episode where everyone kept trying to relate to Token on a black person level and only managed to piss him off more and more. In the end, it was water under the bridge when they all said they just don't get it and Token says "Now you get it."

 

[Quan8410]

There are 50 plus ethnics in China. What is the Chinese mindset? Han mindset? Manchu mindset? Hui mindset? Russian? (yes russian is also officially classified as an ethnic by the government). So Chinese is not one race. Don't know how CCP would feel about this thread discussing race.

 

[PeoplesPoster]

There are 50 plus ethnics in China. What is the Chinese mindset? Han mindset? Manchu mindset? Hui mindset? Russian? (yes russian is also officially classified as an ethnic by the government). So Chinese is not one race. Don't know how CCP would feel about this thread discussing race.

country side vs city, south vs north, coastal vs inland. huge differences in mindset.

 

[KYli]

There aren't many White people grew up and studied in China. Most of White people in Hong Kong don't even attend public school but opt for international schools. Same thing with mainland China, most White people in China don't interact with local.

Even for those who spoke fluent Chinese such as Kevin Kudd, does the guy really understand China or Chinese with all those prejudice and superiority complex.

To say White people would never understand Chinese is wrong. But it is clear more people in China have better understanding of the West than the other way around.

It is true that there aren't a good way to codify what is Chinese or what is Chinese mindset. However, there are general way of thinking and beliefs that are accepted by majority of Chinese.

 

[KYli]

SCMP is offically MSM's mouthpiece.

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[coolgod]

SCMP is offically MSM's mouthpiece.

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SCMP helping Xiaomi and other Chinese investors exit the Indian market by introducing new western money to India. SCMP is also helping introduce more hot money into Japan . Good guy Jack Ma, always trying to help others, even through SCMP

 

[tphuang]

Another hit piece from HW before HR

虽然我们制造业占了全球31%，但是我们外贸价值才占全球的15%左右，空间还很多。比如美国2022年出口产品达到2.07万亿美元，这么巨大的产品空间，除了部分是送到墨西哥和加拿大产业链的中间产品外，很多都是成品。扣除石油、农产品等美国资源类产品，至少美国出口我们可以和其竞争的还有1万亿美元，这需要我们加大努力。

美国出口有几大方面很有竞争力，一个包括计算机在内的机电设备有2093亿美元（11.9%），这个巨大空间中国完全可以靠自己科技产业进步抢他们份额。这里面包括芯片和半导体产业设备，利润高且行业都是高薪岗位。这也是美国人到处卡脖子行业。
另一个电机、设备有1854亿美元（10.6%），这类包括一些军火、工程设备等，我们完全可以拿下很多。
令人惊讶的是汽车产品美国出口1222亿美元（7%），这么大的蛋糕，中国现在完全可以拿下更多的。
航空制造业，包括波音等一年才891亿美元（5.1%），这比起前面几个较少。另外美国的医疗设备和医药每年出口也过千亿美元。

可以看到，美国出口的很多都是技术密集型产品，带来了高利润和高薪岗位。如果中国可以占领美国出口的1/4市场，就可以带来平均几千万个就业，这就是中国典型的制造服务输出。而我们越来越靠近可以代替当前美国制造输出的水准了。

除了美国外，欧洲日韩还有2万亿美元的出口，都是中国企业可以争取的空间，特别他们对发展中国家的贸易。一些人又要说把他们抢完怎么办？这是笑话，他们人均收入是中国几倍，穷人不需要关心富人。等人均收入差不多再说吧。
所以完全不用担心制造业过剩，而是竞争力够不够的问题，要解决到西方阵营他们在发展中国家市场大量被取代才算完成，现在还早着呢。比如印度这么敌视中国，因为中国物美价廉的中档产品非常适合印度市场，所以每年还是对华近千亿美元逆差。我们现在要的是继续抢欧美日韩在发展中国家的市场

for all the talk about Chinese industries defeating Japan & SK industries, the big fish is actually America. America's export is equivalent to Europe, japan & Korea added together.

About half of the $2 trillion in export are areas that China can probably compete with America including computer components, semiconductors, military equipments, construction equipment, auto products & aerospace.

The reality is that as China grows in competitiveness, while that may destroy certain Japanese & Korean industries, the biggest victim will actually be America

 

[tphuang]

Some more interesting deals that Chinese companies got recently

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CEC getting into Central Asian energy sector even more.

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CRRC winning order for Singapore metro. They are just out competing competition here

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PowerChina & CEEC picking up more energy cooperation projects in Africa & Central Asia

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CGN brazil looking to do more renewable projects in Brazil

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CNCEC building refinery in Angola to enable it to be self sufficient in refined oil product

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China Mobile working with Brazilian partners in IoT in brazil.

I think what they are doing now is showcasing their technology to sell to Global south countries